关键词: 生态修复分区, 基于自然的解决方案, 情景模拟, 气候变化, 土地利用变化, 生态系统服务, 城市群

Abstract:

To better manage urban ecosystems and improve human well-being, the territorial space ecological restoration policy must identify priority areas and layouts for specific ecological spaces. Urban agglomerations are the most important areas where human and natural disturbances combine. Rapid changes in the urban ecosystem structure and function make it difficult for cities to maintain stable, coordinated, and sustainable ecosystem services, affecting residents’ well-being. The city faces difficulties in balancing the supply and demand of land space, and how to govern the limited ecological space plays a vital role in urban land-use strategies. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct ecosystem restoration and provide more natural ecosystem services to cities. Territorial space ecological restoration zoning is essential for prioritizing key restoration projects and layouts, as it can identify the ecosystem structure and function that need to be restored within the region. Ecological restoration zoning is usually composed of a multilevel system, mainly through top-down hierarchical divisions and classifications. The top-down approach mainly evaluates the disturbance, degradation, and destruction of ecosystems as well as the value and potential of ecological restoration, and then delineates a zoning system covering the region based on geographic patterns, dominant ecological functions, and protection and restoration goals. The bottom-up approach is based on the evolution of natural ecosystems and combines historical changes, current situation, and risk identification. Existing studies have used numerous zoning methods from the perspective of the pressure-state-response framework. However, most static zoning methods do not consider the future evolution of urban ecosystems, and there is still limited research on coupling land use and climate change to optimize ecological restoration zoning in urban areas. Thus, to identify and layout ecological restoration projects, consideration of future scenarios is still unclear. In this study, we used the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration area as an example to simulate dynamic zoning of ecosystem restoration from the perspective of nature-based solutions. We compared the potential changes in ecosystem restoration zoning under different SSP-RCP scenarios of land use and climate change. The results showed that 1) ecosystem restoration zoning can be divided into five types: artificial reconstruction, ecological reconstruction, auxiliary ecological repair, natural recovery, and conservation areas. The proportion of conservation areas in 2020 was approximately 29.7%, with a significant decrease in the future scenarios. The proportion of natural recovery areas in 2020 is 25.8%, and except for a slight contraction in the SSP585 scenario of 2035, it will increase in future scenarios. The proportion of auxiliary repair ecological areas in 2020 was approximately 19.0%, and there will be a slight increase in future scenarios. The proportion of ecological reconstruction areas in 2020 was approximately 14.7%, and this change will be relatively small in the future. The proportion of artificial reconstruction areas in 2020 was 10.8% and there may be a slight increase in the future. 2) In the SSPs-RCP scenarios, the spatial distributions of ecological restoration zones exhibited by SSP119 and SSP585 in 2035 are similar, but SSP119 is low cost and can be restored using nature-based solutions. By 2050, SSP119 will have relatively few artificial projects. In SSP245, artificial restoration and ecological reconstruction areas decreased, whereas SSP585 showed the most severe expansion of artificial restoration and ecological reconstruction areas. Overall, the dynamic adjustment of ecological restoration zoning under nature-based solutions to adapt to urbanization is a better priority layout arrangement that can provide scientific guidance for territorial space ecological restoration planning in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration area.

Key words: ecological restoration zoning, nature-based solutions, scenario simulation, climate change, land use change, ecosystem services, urban agglomeration area