气候变化对入侵杂草续断菊潜在地理分布的影响

doi:10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2025.06.002

生态环境学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (6): 845-852.DOI: 10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2025.06.002

气候变化对入侵杂草续断菊潜在地理分布的影响

刘泽渊¹(), 魏有海¹^,²^,^*(), 严旭发³, 程亮¹^,², 侯璐¹^,², 严紫玮³, 郭良芝¹^,²

1.青海大学农林科学院，青海西宁 810016
2.青海省农林科学院，青海西宁 810016
3.青海省农业农村能源与资源保护技术指导服务中心，青海西宁 810016

收稿日期:2024-11-18 出版日期:2025-06-18 发布日期:2025-06-11
通讯作者: * 魏有海, E-mail: youhaiweiqh@163.com
作者简介:刘泽渊（2000年生），男，硕士研究生，主要从事杂草治理研究。E-mail: 18704921744@163.com
基金资助:
青海省科学技术厅中央引导地方科技发展资金专项(2025ZY030);国家燕麦荞麦产业技术体系项目(CARS-07-C-3)

Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Geographic Distribution of the Invasive Weed Sonchus asper

LIU Zeyuan¹(), WEI Youhai¹^,²^,^*(), YAN Xufa³, CHENG Liang¹^,², HOU Lu¹^,², YAN Ziwei³, GUO Liangzhi¹^,²

1. College of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Qinghai University, Xining 810016, P. R. China
2. College of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Xining 810016, P. R. China
3. Technical Guidance Service Centre for Agricultural and Rural Energy and Resource Conservation, Xining 810016, P. R. China

Received:2024-11-18 Online:2025-06-18 Published:2025-06-11

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

外来入侵杂草续断菊（Sonchus asper L. Hill.）适应性强，种子萌发生长快，成株生物量大，结籽量多，蔓延扩散快，对作物、草坪等产生较大的影响。为明确续断在中国的生境适应性及影响其分布的气候环境变量，根据146条地理分布数据，结合8个气候因子和6个土壤因子，利用Biomod2包构建集成模型预测了续断菊在当前及未来2050s、2070s在3种气候情景下（RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5）中国的潜在适生区。结果表明：1）集成模型（EMcaByROC）的AUC值为0.943，具有较高准确度；2）当前气候情境下续断菊主要分布在中国中部和东部地区，潜在适生区面积为2.67×10⁶ km²，占中国总面积的27.8%，而在未来情景下，其适生区面积呈上升趋势，尤其在RCP8.5情景下，2050s和2070s适生区面积分别为3.41×10⁶ km²和3.88×10⁶ km²，较当前时期分别增加了22%和31%；3）生态位变化分析显示，续断菊在RCP8.5情景下，生态位重叠值最低为0.829，表现出较大的迁移，适宜栖息地进一步扩大；4）影响续断菊分布的主要气候和土壤变量分别是气温年较差（bio7）、最湿季均温度（bio8）和酸碱度（pH，water）、总氮含量（total N）。该研究阐述了续断菊在中国的适宜生境分布变化，分析了影响其分布的主要环境变量，有助于了解该物种入侵动态及危害，以及开展早期监测预警，为及时采取防控措施阻止其传播扩散提供了一定的理论支持。

关键词: 气候变化, Biomod2, 续断菊, 地理分布, 生态位重叠

Abstract:

The exotic invasive weed Sonchus asper L. Hill. has strong adaptability, with fast seed germination and growth, large adult plant biomass, high seed production, rapid spread, and significant effects on crops and turfgrass. To clarify the habitat adaptability of Sonchus asper in China and identify the climatic and environmental variables influencing its distribution, an ensemble model was constructed using the Biomod2 package based on 146 geographic distribution records, eight climate factors, and six soil factors. This model predicted potentially suitable habitats for Sonchus asper in China under current conditions and future scenarios (2050s and the 2070s) across three climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The results were as follows: 1) The ensemble model (EMcaByROC) achieved an AUC value of 0.943, indicating a high accuracy. 2) Under the current climate scenario, the plant is mainly distributed in the central and eastern regions of China, with a potential suitable area of 2.67×10⁶ km², accounting for 27.8% of the total area of China, while under the future scenarios, the area of its suitable area shows an increasing trend, especially under the RCP8.5 scenario, with the areas of suitable areas in the 2050s and 2070s being 3.41×10⁶ km², and 3.88×10⁶ km², representing increases of 22% and 31% compared to the current period. 3) The analysis of ecological niche change showed that the lowest ecological niche overlap value of 0.829 was recorded for the RCP8.5 scenario for the sequestration chrysanthemum, which showed greater migration and further expansion of suitable habitat. 4) The key variables influencing its distribution were the annual temperature range (bio7), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (bio8), soil pH (water), and total nitrogen content (total N). This study elucidates changes in the suitable habitat distribution of Sonchus asper in China, identifies critical environmental drivers, and provides theoretical support for understanding its invasion dynamics, early monitoring, and implementation of control measures to prevent its spread.

Key words: climate change, Biomod2, Sonchus asper, geographic distribution, ecological niche overlap

中图分类号:

刘泽渊, 魏有海, 严旭发, 程亮, 侯璐, 严紫玮, 郭良芝. 气候变化对入侵杂草续断菊潜在地理分布的影响[J]. 生态环境学报, 2025, 34(6): 845-852.

LIU Zeyuan, WEI Youhai, YAN Xufa, CHENG Liang, HOU Lu, YAN Ziwei, GUO Liangzhi. Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Geographic Distribution of the Invasive Weed Sonchus asper[J]. Ecology and Environmental Sciences, 2025, 34(6): 845-852.

图/表 9

图1 中国续断菊在中国的物种分布该图基于国家测绘地理信息局标准地图服务网站（https://www.tianditu.gov.cn/）下载的审图号为GS（2024）0650号的标准地图制作；底图边界无修改。下同

Figure 1 Distribution of Sonchus asper China

表1 环境因子描述

Table1 Description of environmental variables

类型	代码	用于建模的变量
生物气候因子	bio2	平均气温日较差
	bio3	等温性
	bio7	气温年较差
	bio8	最湿季均温
	bio11	最冷季均温
	bio15	降水量季节性变动系数
	bio18	最暖季降水量
	bio19	最冷季降水量
土壤因子0－20 cm	t1	酸碱度
	t2	根系层厚度
	t3	土壤水分状况
	t4	碳酸钙含量
	t5	交换性盐基
	t6	总氮含量

图2 不同模型精度评价结果 KAPPA为科恩卡帕系数、ROC为受试者工作特性曲线、TSS为真实技巧统计值，该值范围均为0－1

Figure 2 Accuracy evaluation results of different models

图3 环境变量对续断菊物种分布集成模型贡献度

Figure 3 Contribution of environmental variables to the integrated model of species distribution of Sonchus asper

图4 当代情景续断菊潜在分布区

Figure 4 Potential distribution areas for the current scenario of Sonchus asper

图5 未来不同气候情景下续断菊在中国的空间分布格局变化

Figure 5 Changes in the spatial distribution pattern of Sonchus asper in China under different climate scenarios in the future

表2 不同气候情景下的续断菊的潜在适生区面积

Table 2 Area of potential habitat of Sonchus asper under different climatic scenarios

时期	气候情景	低适生区		中等适生区		高适生区
时期	气候情景	面积/10⁴ km²	趋势	面积/10⁴ km²	趋势	面积/10⁴ km²	趋势
当代	－	77.85	－	95.88	－	93.30	－
	RCP2.6	91.52	↑13.68	97.08	↑1.20	126.25	↑32.94
2050s	RCP4.5	103.53	↑25.68	105.15	↑9.27	124.51	↑31.21
	RCP8.5	111.09	↑33.24	117.28	↑21.40	112.25	↑18.95
	RCP2.6	90.42	↑12.58	107.76	↑11.88	104.73	↑11.43
2070s	RCP4.5	114.79	↑36.95	118.40	↑22.52	118.27	↑24.96
	RCP8.5	144.04	↑66.19	130.73	↑34.85	113.70	↑20.40

表3 当代和未来气候情景下续断菊生态位重叠值

Table 3 Overlapping ecological niche values of Sonchus asper under current and future climate scenarios

当与未来情景比较	重叠值
当代与2050sRCP2.6	0.8544
当代与2050sRCP4.5	0.8391
当代与2050sRCP8.5	0.8508
当代与2070sRCP2.6	0.8492
当代与2070sRCP4.5	0.8568
当代与2750sRCP8.5	0.8287

图6 未来不同气候背景下的续断菊生态位变化绿色和红色阴影代表当前和未来气候情景下物种出现的密度，紫色阴影表示重叠。红色箭头代表当前到未来气候条件下气候生态位的变化

Figure 6 Future changes in the ecological niches of Sonchus asper under different climatic scenarios

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气候变化对入侵杂草续断菊潜在地理分布的影响

Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Geographic Distribution of the Invasive Weed Sonchus asper

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