气候变化和人类活动对松辽流域植被覆盖的影响

doi:10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2023.01.001

生态环境学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (1): 1-10.DOI: 10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2023.01.001

• 研究论文 • 下一篇

气候变化和人类活动对松辽流域植被覆盖的影响

贾志峰¹^,²^,³^,⁴^,^*(), 刘鹏程¹^,²^,³, 刘宇⁵, 吴博博¹^,²^,³, 陈丹姿¹^,²^,³, 张向飞⁶

1.长安大学水利与环境学院，陕西西安 710054
2.长安大学旱区地下水文与生态效应教育部重点实验室，陕西西安 710054
3.水利部旱区生态水文与水安全重点实验室（长安大学），陕西西安 710054
4.长安大学水与发展研究院，陕西西安 710054
5.西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院，陕西杨凌 712100
6.西安水务（集团）黑河金盆水库管理公司，陕西西安 710401

收稿日期:2022-11-03 出版日期:2023-01-18 发布日期:2023-04-06
通讯作者: *贾志峰（1986年生），男，副教授，博士，主要从事水文生态过程研究。E-mail: jiazhifeng123@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(42001033);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(2021JQ-237);中国工程院咨询研究项目(2019-RC-4)

Effects of Climatic Change and Human Activities on Vegetation Cover in Songliao River Basin

JIA Zhifeng¹^,²^,³^,⁴^,^*(), LIU Pengcheng¹^,²^,³, LIU Yu⁵, WU Bobo¹^,²^,³, CHEN Danzi¹^,²^,³, ZHANG Xiangfei⁶

1. School of Water and Environment, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710054, P. R. China
2. Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effects in Arid Region, Ministry of Education, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710054, P. R. China
3. Key Laboratory of Eco-hydrology and Water Security in Arid and Semi-arid Regions of the Ministry of Water Resources, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710054, P. R. China
4. Institute of Water and Development, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710054, P. R. China
5. Northwest A & F University, College of Water and Architectural Engineering, Yangling 712100, P. R. China
6. Xi’an Water (Group) Heihe Jinpen Reservoir Management Company, Xi’an 710401, P. R. China

Received:2022-11-03 Online:2023-01-18 Published:2023-04-06

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

探究植被变化及其对气候变化和人类活动的响应，对科学高效管理区域生态系统具有重要意义。基于年归一化植被指数（Normalized Difference Vegetation Index，NDVI）、标准化降水蒸散指数（Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index，SPEI）、年降水量和年平均气温数据，采用Theil-Sen Median趋势分析、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、残差分析等方法，定量分析了松辽流域1998—2018年NDVI时空变化特征及其驱动因素。结果表明，流域年均NDVI在0.72—0.82之间，呈极显著增加趋势，总体增长速率为0.0041/a；在2000—2005年和2009—2014年期间增速较快，平均增长速率分别为0.0137/a和0.0092/a。流域NDVI空间变化率在 (-0.44—0.44)/(10 a)之间，92.85%区域植被呈改善趋势，极显著改善区域面积占比达72.26%；而7.15%的区域植被呈退化趋势，极显著退化的区域面积占比仅为0.91%，退化区域主要集中在大兴安岭西部地区、渤海湾及东北各省会城市区。气候因素对流域NDVI影响在 (-1.4×10^-3—1.6×10^-3)/a之间，人类活动对流域NDVI影响在(-3.6×10^-3—4.0×10^-3)/a之间；气候驱动和人类活动驱动下流域植被呈极显著改善区域的面积占比分别为3.77%，62.84%。流域内有79.40%的区域人类活动贡献率超过了70%。气候变化对NDVI抑制的区域主要分布在海拉尔河左岸及大兴安岭西南侧区域；人类活动对NDVI抑制区域主要分布于东北城市群及大兴安岭西部区域。对于不同的土地利用类型，人类活动对NDVI的贡献率均明显高于气候变化的贡献率。在植被改善区域，人类活动对林地植被变化的贡献率最大，其次为耕地、未利用土地、草地。在植被退化区域，人类活动对草地植被变化的贡献率最大，其次为未利用土地、林地、耕地。建议在东北地区高质量发展战略规划中应更加重视对草地、未利用地的保护。

关键词: NDVI, 人类活动, 气候变化, 残差分析, 松辽流域

Abstract:

Exploring vegetation change and its response to climate change and human activities is very important for scientific and efficient management of regional ecosystems. Based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), annual precipitation and annual air temperature data, the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of NDVI from 1998 to 2018 and its driving forces in Songliao river basin were analyzed using Theil-Sen Median trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test, and residual analysis. The results showed that the annual NDVI from 1998 to 2018 in the river basin ranged from 0.72 to 0.82, showing an extremely significant improvement with an overall increase rate of 0.0041/a. Especially during 2000-2005 and 2009-2014, the increase rate was relatively high, with the values of 0.0137/a and 0.0092/a, respectively. The spatial variation rate per decade ranged from -0.44 to 0.44. The vegetation in 92.85% of the regions showed an improvement trend, while only 7.15% showed a degradation trend. The degradation areas were mainly distributed in the west of the Greater Khingan Mountains, Bohai Bay and the capital cities of the provinces in Northeast China. The impacts of climatic change on NDVI ranged from -1.4×10^-3/a to 1.6×10^-3/a, while the impacts of human activities ranged from -3.6×10^-3/a to 4.0×10^-3/a. 3.77% and 62.84% of the basin with significantly improved vegetation were driven by climate change and human activities, respectively. The contribution rate of human activities was more than 70% in 79.40% of the basin, the regions where climate change had a negative impact on NDVI were mainly distributed in the left bank of Hailar River and the southwest of the Greater Khingan Mountains, and the regions where human activities had a negative impact were mainly distributed in the northeast urban agglomeration and the west of the Greater Khingan Mountains. For different land use types, the contribution rate of human activities to NDVI was significantly higher than that of climate change. The contribution rate of human activities to forest vegetation change was the largest, followed by cropland, unutilized land and grassland in the vegetation improvement area, and the contribution rate to grassland vegetation change was the largest, followed by unutilized land, forest, and Cropland. It is suggested that more attention should be paid to the protection of grassland and unutilized land in the high-quality development strategy planning of Northeast China.

Key words: NDVI, human activities, climatic change, residuals analysis, Songliao River Basin

中图分类号:

Q948
X173

贾志峰, 刘鹏程, 刘宇, 吴博博, 陈丹姿, 张向飞. 气候变化和人类活动对松辽流域植被覆盖的影响[J]. 生态环境学报, 2023, 32(1): 1-10.

JIA Zhifeng, LIU Pengcheng, LIU Yu, WU Bobo, CHEN Danzi, ZHANG Xiangfei. Effects of Climatic Change and Human Activities on Vegetation Cover in Songliao River Basin[J]. Ecology and Environment, 2023, 32(1): 1-10.

图/表 11

图1 松辽流域地理位置图

Figure 1 Location of Songliao River Basin

表1 NDVI/SPEI/降水/气温变化趋势的分类标准

Table 1 Classification of NDVI/SPEI/Precipitation/Air temperature trend

数据类型	等级	描述	S	\|Z\|
NDVI/SPEI/ 降水/气温	1	极显著提升/极显著湿润化/极显著上升	>0	[2.58, ∞）
	2	显著提升/显著湿润化/显著上升		[1.96, 2.58）
	3	弱显著提升/弱显著湿润化/弱显著上升		[1.64, 1.96）
	4	不显著提升/不显著湿润化/不显著上升		[0, 1.64）
	5	极显著退化/极显著干旱化/极显著下降	<0	[2.58, ∞）
	6	显著退化/显著干旱化/显著下降		[1.96, 2.58）
	7	弱显著退化/弱显著干旱化/弱显著下降		[1.64, 1.96）
	8	不显著退化/不显著干旱化/不显著下降		[0, 1.64）
	9	无变化	=0	—

表2 植被NDVI变化的驱动因素判定标准及贡献率计算方法

Table 2 Identification criterion and contribution calculation of the drivers of NDVI change

K_H	K_E	K_F	贡献率/%
K_H	K_E	K_F	气候变化	人类活动
>0	<0	>0	0	100
	>0	<0	100	0
	>0	>0	$K E K E + K F × 100$	$K F K E + K F × 100$
<0	<0	>0	100	0
	>0	<0	0	100
	<0	<0	$K E K E + K F × 100$	$K F K E + K F × 100$

表2 植被NDVI变化的驱动因素判定标准及贡献率计算方法

Table 2 Identification criterion and contribution calculation of the drivers of NDVI change

K_H	K_E	K_F	贡献率/%
K_H	K_E	K_F	气候变化	人类活动
>0	<0	>0	0	100
	>0	<0	100	0
	>0	>0	$K E K E + K F × 100$	$K F K E + K F × 100$
<0	<0	>0	100	0
	>0	<0	0	100
	<0	<0	$K E K E + K F × 100$	$K F K E + K F × 100$

图2 松辽流域1998—2018年NDVI/SPEI/降水/气温年际变化

Figure 2 Interannual variation of NDVI/SPEI/Precipitation/Air temperature in Songliao River Basin from 1998 to 2018

图3 松辽流域1998—2018年NDVI/SPEI/降水/气温变化趋势及显著性空间分布

Figure 3 Spatial distribution of change trend and significance of NDVI/SPEI/Precipitation/Air temperature in Songliao River Basin from 1998 to 2018

图4 1998—2018年植被NDVI预测值和实测值变化速率的空间分布

Figure 4 Spatial distribution of NDVI predicted value and measured value change rate from 1998 to 2018

表3 不同显著性区域面积占比

Table 3 Percentage of area in different significance zones %

类别	极显著改善	显著改善	弱显著改善	不显著改善	极显著退化	显著退化	弱显著退化	不显著退化
气候变化	3.77	10.57	10.25	57.97	0.07	0.51	0.72	16.15
人类活动	62.84	13.13	4.03	13.63	0.69	0.56	0.35	4.76

图5 气候变化和人类活动对松辽流域植被变化的贡献率空间分布

Figure 5 Spatial distribution of contribution rates of climate change and human activities to vegetation change in Songliao River Basin

图6 1998—2018年气候变化和人类活动贡献率分级面积统计图中横轴的编号1—20分别代表贡献率-100%— -90%、-90%— -80%、……、90%—100%

Figure 6 Graded area statistics on the contribution rates of climate change and human activities from 1998 to 2018

表4 不同LUCC类型下气候变化和人类活动对松辽流域植被变化的贡献率

Table 4 Contribution rate of climate change and human activities to vegetation change in Songliao River Basin under different LUCC types %

类别	驱动因素	耕地	林地	草地	未利用土地
植被改善区	气候变化	17.31	12.55	24.31	18.08
植被改善区	人类活动	82.69	87.45	75.69	81.92
植被退化区	气候变化	25.67	24.2	19.08	22.09
植被退化区	人类活动	74.33	75.8	80.92	77.91

表5 2005—2018年LUCC类型转移矩阵

Table 5 LUCC transfer matrix from 2005 to 2018 km2

2005年	2018年
2005年	草地	耕地	建设用地	林地	水体	未利用土地	转出合计
草地	110033	30690	2579	52927	2245	34554	233028
耕地	21897	271762	20700	41557	5297	12441	373654
建设用地	1640	16376	8604	2484	770	716	30590
林地	24328	44137	3184	392475	2755	29408	496287
水域	1543	6522	733	2008	11762	5672	28240
未利用土地	11379	15684	1101	6471	2237	29869	66741

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气候变化和人类活动对松辽流域植被覆盖的影响

Effects of Climatic Change and Human Activities on Vegetation Cover in Songliao River Basin

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