黄土高原地区气候变化及其对冬小麦生产潜力的影响

doi:10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2022.08.003

生态环境学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (8): 1521-1529.DOI: 10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2022.08.003

黄土高原地区气候变化及其对冬小麦生产潜力的影响

齐月¹^,²(), 张强¹^,²^,^*(), 胡淑娟¹, 蔡迪花², 赵福年², 陈斐², 张凯², 王鹤龄², 王润元²

1.兰州大学大气科学学院,甘肃兰州 730000
2.中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,甘肃兰州 730020

收稿日期:2021-09-06 出版日期:2022-08-18 发布日期:2022-10-10
通讯作者: * 张强（1965年生）,男,研究员,研究方向为干旱气候变化及陆面过程研究。E-mail: zhangqiang@cma.gov.cn
作者简介:齐月（1988年生）,女,助理研究员,主要从事气候变化及其对农业的影响研究。E-mail: goodqiyue@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41975016);国家自然科学基金项目(41775107);国家自然科学基金项目(41505098)

Climate Change and Its Impact on Winter Wheat Potential Productivity of Loess Plateau in China

QI Yue¹^,²(), ZHANG Qiang¹^,²^,^*(), HU Shujuan¹, CAI Dihua², ZHAO Funian², ZHANG Kai², WANG Heling², WANG Runyuan²

1. College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, P. R. China
2. Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration/Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province/Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA, Lanzhou 730020, P. R. China

Received:2021-09-06 Online:2022-08-18 Published:2022-10-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

气候变化对冬小麦生长发育的影响一直是热点问题。为了探讨黄土高原地区气候变化对冬小麦生产潜力的影响,以甘肃省9个冬小麦种植区为研究区,利用农业气象观测站1961—2017年逐日气象资料和冬小麦农业气象观测资料,运用线性倾向估计方法分析了近57 a黄土高原地区气候变化特征;利用农业生态区法AEZ模型计算9个站点1961—2017年57 a冬小麦光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力,研究近57 a黄土高原地区冬小麦光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力的变化趋势,分析影响冬小麦光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力变化的主要气象因素。结果表明,（1）近57 a,黄土高原地区气温表现为显著升高趋势,而降水量和太阳辐射则表现为减少趋势。（2）冬小麦生育期内气温和≥10 ℃积温均表现为升高趋势,气候倾向率为0.29 ℃∙(10 a)^-1（P<0.01）;降水量呈增加趋势,但太阳辐射呈减少趋势。（3）伴随气温的升高和≥10℃积温的增加,冬小麦光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力均表现为增加趋势,气候倾向率分别为663.05 kg∙hm^-2∙(10 a)^-1和517.57 kg∙hm^-2∙(10 a)^-1。冬小麦生产潜力主要受气温的影响,气温的升高是黄土高原地区冬小麦生产潜力增加的主要原因。黄土高原地区冬小麦生育期内气温和≥10 ℃积温的升高,有利于冬小麦光合作用,是冬小麦光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力提高的主要因素。该研究可为气候变化背景下黄土高原半干旱区冬小麦应对气候变化提供理论依据。

关键词: 气候变化, 光温生产潜力, 气候生产潜力, 冬小麦, 黄土高原地区

Abstract:

Climate change affects regional crop production. Further research is needed on climate change and its impact on crop production. In order to investigate the effects of climate change on winter wheat production potential in Loess Plateau, nine winter wheat growing areas in Gansu Province were selected as the research areas. The daily climatic data and winter wheat growth period data from nine agricultural meteorological stations during 1961-2017 were used to analyze the characteristics of climate change in Loess Plateau in recent 57 years by the linear trend method and to calculate the light and temperature potential productivity and climate potential productivity during the same time according to the AEZ model. Based on this, the variation trend of light and temperature productivity potential of winter wheat and its major influencing factors were analyzed. The results showed that (1) during the study period, temperature in the Loess Plateau showed an increasing trend, while precipitation and solar radiation showed a decreasing trend; (2) during the growing period of winter wheat, temperature and the accumulated temperature that ≥10 ℃ showed an increasing trend, and precipitation also increased, but solar radiation showed a decreasing trend; and (3) with the increase of temperature and ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature, both light-temperature potential productivity and climatic potential productivity of winter wheat showed an increasing trend. Above all, the production potential of winter wheat was mainly affected by temperature, and the increase of temperature resulted in the improvement of photosynthesis and brought in an increase of the production potential of winter wheat in Loess Plateau.

Key words: climate change, light-temperature potential productivity, climatic potential productivity, Winter Wheat, Loess Plateau

中图分类号:

S162.5
X16

齐月, 张强, 胡淑娟, 蔡迪花, 赵福年, 陈斐, 张凯, 王鹤龄, 王润元. 黄土高原地区气候变化及其对冬小麦生产潜力的影响[J]. 生态环境学报, 2022, 31(8): 1521-1529.

QI Yue, ZHANG Qiang, HU Shujuan, CAI Dihua, ZHAO Funian, ZHANG Kai, WANG Heling, WANG Runyuan. Climate Change and Its Impact on Winter Wheat Potential Productivity of Loess Plateau in China[J]. Ecology and Environment, 2022, 31(8): 1521-1529.

图/表 8

图1 黄土高原地区冬小麦种植区站点分布示意图

Figure 1 Site distribution diagram of Winter Wheat planting areas in Loess Plateau

图2 1961—2017年研究区平均气温、降水量和太阳辐射变化特征（a）气温变化特征图;（b）降水量变化特征图;（c）太阳辐射变化特征图

Figure 2 Change characteristics of average temperature, precipitation and solar radiation in the studied area from 1961 to 2017 (a) Change characteristics of temperature; (b) Change characteristics of precipitation; (c) Change characteristics of solar radiation

表1 研究区各年代际降水距平百分率、太阳辐射距平百分率和气温距平

Table 1 Interdecadal precipitation anomaly percentage, solar radiation anomaly percentage and temperature anomaly in studied area

要素 Factor		20世纪60年代1960S	20世纪70年代 1970S	20世纪80年代 1980S	20世纪90年代 1990S	21世纪10年代 2000S	21世纪20年代 2020S
降水量 Precipitation	距平百分率Anomaly percent/%	10.22	-3.64	4.79	-10.96	-2.90	3.58
降水量 Precipitation	变异系数 Coefficient of variability/%	18.50	12.61	22.22	14.68	14.92	16.31
气温 Temperature	距平Departure/℃	-0.50	10.12	10.54	0.47	0.53	10.79
气温 Temperature	变异系数 Coefficient of variability/%	4.05	3.56	4.05	4.94	2.82	4.84
太阳辐射 Solar radiation	距平百分率Anomaly percent/%	2.01	2.43	-3.03	0.24	-0.39	-1.81

图3 1961—2017年冬小麦生育期平均气温和≥10 ℃积温年际变化（a）气温年际变化;（b）≥10 ℃积温年际变化

Figure 3 Interannual variation of mean temperature and accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃ during winter wheat growth period from 1961 to 2017 (a) Interannual variation of temperature; (b) Interannual variation of accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃

图4 1961—2017年冬小麦生育期降水量和太阳辐射年际变化（a）降水量年际变化;（b）太阳辐射年际变化

Figure 4Inte rannual variation of precipitation and solar radiation during winter wheat growth period from 1961 to 2017 (a) Interannual variation of precipitation;(b) Interannual variation of solar radiation

表2 冬小麦生育期各年代际气温、≥10 ℃积温、降水量和太阳辐射距平

Table 2 Temperature, accumulated temperature ≥10℃, precipitation and solar radiation anomaly in each decadal growth period of winter wheat

要素 Factor		20世纪60年代1960S	20世纪70年代1970S	20世纪80年代1980S	20世纪90年代 1990S	21世纪10年代2000S	21世纪20年代2020S
气温 Temperature	距平Departure/℃	-0.51	-0.42	-0.45	0.10	0.70	0.81
气温 Temperature	变异系数Coefficient of variability/%	8.29	6.99	7.19	8.31	4.78	6.29
≥10 ℃积温 Accumulated temperature	距平Departure/℃	-55.41	-62.67	-104.19	-22.96	124.76	172.08
≥10 ℃积温 Accumulated temperature	变异系数Coefficient of variability/%	7.77	8.69	9.07	5.24	9.10	11.40
降水量 Precipitation	距平百分率Anomaly percent/%	3.67	-6.29	5.66	-4.68	-6.59	11.76
降水量 Precipitation	变异系数Coefficient of variability/%	19.83	15.64	21.24	14.45	14.54	17.17
太阳辐射 Solar radiation	距平百分率Anomaly percent/%	1.77	-3.09	-28.95	0.67	-1.25	48.03

图5 1961—2017年黄土高原地区冬小麦光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力变化趋势（a）光温生产潜力变化趋势;（b）气候生产潜力变化趋势

Figure 5 Trends of light and temperature productivity potential and climate productivity potential of winter wheat in the Loess Plateau from 1961 to 2017 (a) Trends of light and temperature productivity potential;(b) Trends of climate productivity potential

表3 冬小麦生育期光温生产潜力、气候生产潜力与气象要素相关性

Table 3 Correlation between light-temperature productivity potential, climatic productivity potential and meteorological factors in winter wheat growth period

要素 Factor	气温 Temperature	≥10 ℃积温 Accumulated temperature	太阳辐射 Solar radiation	降水量 Precipitation
光温生产潜力 Light- temperature potential productivity	0.74^**	0.86^**	0.18	-0.06
气候生产潜力 Climatic productivity potential	0.66^**	0.73^**	0.15	-0.03

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黄土高原地区气候变化及其对冬小麦生产潜力的影响

Climate Change and Its Impact on Winter Wheat Potential Productivity of Loess Plateau in China

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