气候变化背景下羌活在三江源的适宜分布

doi:10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2021.10.010

生态环境学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (10): 2033-2041.DOI: 10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2021.10.010

气候变化背景下羌活在三江源的适宜分布

佘延娣¹^,⁵(), 周华坤¹, 张中华¹^,⁵, 马丽¹^,⁵, 周秉荣², 宋明华³, 孙建³, 邓艳芳⁴, 徐文华¹, 王芳¹, 姚步青¹, 马真¹, 黄小涛¹^,^*()

1.中国科学院西北高原生物研究所/青海省寒区恢复生态学重点实验室,青海西宁 810008
2.青海省气象科学研究所,青海西宁 810002
3.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
4.祁连山国家公园青海省管理局,西宁 810002
5.中国科学院大学,北京 100049

收稿日期:2021-03-02 出版日期:2021-10-18 发布日期:2021-12-21
通讯作者: * 黄小涛（1983年生）,男,助理研究员,主要从事遥感生态学研究。E-mail: xthuang@nwipb.cas.cn
作者简介:佘延娣（1997年生）,女,硕士研究生,主要从事恢复生态学研究。E-mail: sheyandi@nwipb.cas.cn
基金资助:
青海省自然科学基金面上项目(2019-ZJ-908);青海省自然科学基金面上项目(2020-ZJ-925);国家重点研发计划课题(2016YFC0501901);中国科学院-青海省人民政府2020年三江源国家公园联合研究专项(LHZX-2020-08)

Suitable Distribution of Notopterygium incisum in the Three Rivers Headwater Region under Climate Change

SHE Yandi¹^,⁵(), ZHOU Huakun¹, ZHANG Zhonghua¹^,⁵, MA Li¹^,⁵, ZHOU Bingrong², SONG Minghua³, SUN Jian³, DENG Yanfang⁴, XU Wenhua¹, WANG Fang¹, YAO Buqing¹, MA Zhen¹, HUANG Xiaotao¹^,^*()

1. Key Laboratory of Cold Restoration Ecology, Qinghai Province/Northwest Plateau Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xining 810008, China
2. Qinghai Institute of Meteorological Science, Xining 810002, China
3. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Beijing 100101, China
4. Qinghai Provincial Grassland Station, Xining 810008, China
5. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2021-03-02 Online:2021-10-18 Published:2021-12-21

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

羌活（Notopterygium incisum）是重要的药用资源和濒危物种,明确其适宜分布情况对其可持续利用至关重要。基于三江源18个羌活分布点数据,利用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）和地理信息系统（GIS）技术预测了气候变化背景下羌活在三江源的适宜分布情况,并筛选出影响其分布的主要环境因子。结果表明：当前羌活适宜分布面积为146.43×10³ km²,占三江源区域的26.67%,且主要集中在三江源区的东部和南部;影响羌活分布主要的环境因子有6个,按贡献率由大到小分别是：海拔（37.1%）、年平均气温（15.9%）、坡向（12.2%）、最湿季降水量（11.4%）、最冷季平均气温（9.6%）、气温季节性变动系数（5.4%）;未来羌活在不同CO₂浓度情景下的适宜分布面积由大到小为：RCP2.6（126.92×10³ km²）、RCP4.5（95.32×10³ km²）、RCP6.0（25.53×10³ km²）、RCP8.0（22.13×10³ km²）,未来不同CO₂浓度情景下羌活的适宜分布面积均小于当前羌活适宜分布,且未来高CO₂浓度情景下的羌活适宜分布面积小于低CO₂浓度情景。当前及未来不同CO₂浓度情景下三江源国家公园中羌活的适宜分布面积分别为：当前（22.60×10³ km²）、RCP2.6（16.64×10³ km²）、RCP4.5（4.79×10³ km²）、RCP6.0（0.43×10³ km²）、RCP8.0（0.27×10³ km²）,羌活在三江源国家公园的适宜分布面积相对较小。该研究对于理解三江源区羌活野生资源生长环境具有重要意义,并有利于实现这一野生药用植物资源的科学保护与合理利用。

关键词: 三江源区, 气候变暖, 羌活, 适生区, 最大熵模型

Abstract:

Notopterygium incisum is an important medicinal resource and endangered species, and its suitable distribution is very important for its sustainable utilization. Based on the data of 18 sites of Notopterygium incisum in the Three Rivers Headwater Region, the optimum distribution of Notopterygium incisum in the background of climate change was predicted using the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and geographic information system (GIS), the main environmental factors affecting its distribution were also screened out. The results show that the suitable distribution area of Notopterygium incisum is 146.43×10³ km², which accounts for 26.67% of the Three Rivers Headwater Region, and is mainly concentrated in the east and south of the Three Rivers Headwater Region, The contribution rates were as follows: Digital Elevation Model (37.1%), Annual mean air temperature (15.9%), aspect (12.2%), Precipitation of the wettest quarter (11.4%), Mean air temperature of the coldest quarter (9.6%) and Air temperature seasonality (5.4%).The suitable distribution areas of Notopterygium incisum under different CO₂ concentrations in the future were RCP2.6 (126.92×10 ³ km²), RCP4.5 (95.32×10³ km²), RCP6.0 (25.53×10³ km²) and RCP8.0 (22.13×10³ km²), respectively, the suitable distribution area of Notopterygium incisum under different CO₂ concentration scenarios in the future is smaller than that under the current CO₂ concentration scenarios, and the suitable distribution area of Notopterygium incisum under high CO₂ concentration scenarios in the future is smaller than that under low CO₂ concentration scenarios. The suitable distribution areas of Notopterygium incisum in the Three Rivers Headwater Region National Park under different CO₂ concentrations are the current (22.60×10 ³ km²), RCP2.6 (16.64×10³ km²), RCP4.5 (4.79×10³ km²), RCP6.0 (0.43×10³ km²) and RCP8.0 (0.27×10³ km²), respectively, Notopterygium incisum is relatively small in its optimum distribution area in the Three Rivers Headwater Region. This study is of great significance to understand the growing environment of Notopterygium incisum in the Three Rivers Headwater Region and to realize the scientific protection and rational utilization of this wild medicinal plant resource.

Key words: Three Rivers Headwater Region, climate warming, Notopterygium incisum, suitable growing area, maximum entropy model

中图分类号:

Q948
X173

佘延娣, 周华坤, 张中华, 马丽, 周秉荣, 宋明华, 孙建, 邓艳芳, 徐文华, 王芳, 姚步青, 马真, 黄小涛. 气候变化背景下羌活在三江源的适宜分布[J]. 生态环境学报, 2021, 30(10): 2033-2041.

SHE Yandi, ZHOU Huakun, ZHANG Zhonghua, MA Li, ZHOU Bingrong, SONG Minghua, SUN Jian, DENG Yanfang, XU Wenhua, WANG Fang, YAO Buqing, MA Zhen, HUANG Xiaotao. Suitable Distribution of Notopterygium incisum in the Three Rivers Headwater Region under Climate Change[J]. Ecology and Environment, 2021, 30(10): 2033-2041.

图/表 7

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数据简称 Code	中文名称 Chinese name	英文名称 English name
Bio1	年平均气温	Annual mean air temperature
Bio2	平均气温日较差（平均每月最高气温—平均每月最低气温）	Mean diurnal air temperature range (Mean of monthly (maximum air temperature-minimum air temperature))
Bio3	等温性	Isothermality
Bio4	气温季节性变动系数	Air temperature seasonality
Bio5	最热月的最高气温	Max air temperature of the warmest month
Bio6	最冷月的最低气温	Min air temperature of the coldest month
Bio7	气温年较差	Air temperature annual range
Bio8	最湿季平均气温	Mean air temperature of the wettest quarter
Bio9	最干季平均气温	Mean air temperature of the driest quarter
Bio10	最热季平均气温	Mean air temperature of the warmest quarter
Bio11	最冷季平均气温	Mean air temperature of the coldest quarter
Bio12	年降水量	Annual precipitation
Bio13	最湿月降水量	Precipitation of the wettest month
Bio14	最干月降水量	Precipitation of the driest month
Bio15	降水量的季节性变化（变异系数）	Precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation)
Bio16	最干季降水量	Precipitation of the driest quarter
Bio17	最湿季降水量	Precipitation of the wettest quarter
Bio18	最热季降水量	Precipitation of the warmest quarter
Bio19	最冷季降水量	Precipitation of the coldest quarter
ATG	生长期平均气温*	Average air temperature of growth period *
PG	生长期降水量*	Precipitation of growth period
DEM	海拔	Digital Elevation Model
slope	坡度	slope
aspect	坡向	aspect

数据简称 Code	中文名称 Chinese name	英文名称 English name
Bio1	年平均气温	Annual mean air temperature
Bio2	平均气温日较差（平均每月最高气温—平均每月最低气温）	Mean diurnal air temperature range (Mean of monthly (maximum air temperature-minimum air temperature))
Bio3	等温性	Isothermality
Bio4	气温季节性变动系数	Air temperature seasonality
Bio5	最热月的最高气温	Max air temperature of the warmest month
Bio6	最冷月的最低气温	Min air temperature of the coldest month
Bio7	气温年较差	Air temperature annual range
Bio8	最湿季平均气温	Mean air temperature of the wettest quarter
Bio9	最干季平均气温	Mean air temperature of the driest quarter
Bio10	最热季平均气温	Mean air temperature of the warmest quarter
Bio11	最冷季平均气温	Mean air temperature of the coldest quarter
Bio12	年降水量	Annual precipitation
Bio13	最湿月降水量	Precipitation of the wettest month
Bio14	最干月降水量	Precipitation of the driest month
Bio15	降水量的季节性变化（变异系数）	Precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation)
Bio16	最干季降水量	Precipitation of the driest quarter
Bio17	最湿季降水量	Precipitation of the wettest quarter
Bio18	最热季降水量	Precipitation of the warmest quarter
Bio19	最冷季降水量	Precipitation of the coldest quarter
ATG	生长期平均气温*	Average air temperature of growth period *
PG	生长期降水量*	Precipitation of growth period
DEM	海拔	Digital Elevation Model
slope	坡度	slope
aspect	坡向	aspect

简称 Code	环境变量 Variables	贡献率 Percent contribution/%
dem	海拔 Digital Elevation Model	37.1
bio_01	年平均气温 Annual mean air temerature	15.9
aspect	坡向 Aspect	12.2
bio_17	最湿季降水量 Precipitation of the wettest quarter	11.4
bio_11	最冷季平均气温 Mean air temperature of the coldest quarter	9.6
bio_04	气温季节性变动系数 Air temperature seasonality	5.4
bio_03	等温性 Isothermality	5
bio_07	气温年较差 Air temperature annual range	2.4
bio_19	最冷季降水量 Precipitation of the coldest quarter	0.7
bio_14	最干月降水量 Precipitation of the driest month	0.1
bio_02	平均气温日较差 Mean diurnal air temperature range	0.1
bio_06	最冷月的最低气温 Min air temperature of the coldest month	0.1

简称 Code	环境变量 Variables	贡献率 Percent contribution/%
dem	海拔 Digital Elevation Model	37.1
bio_01	年平均气温 Annual mean air temerature	15.9
aspect	坡向 Aspect	12.2
bio_17	最湿季降水量 Precipitation of the wettest quarter	11.4
bio_11	最冷季平均气温 Mean air temperature of the coldest quarter	9.6
bio_04	气温季节性变动系数 Air temperature seasonality	5.4
bio_03	等温性 Isothermality	5
bio_07	气温年较差 Air temperature annual range	2.4
bio_19	最冷季降水量 Precipitation of the coldest quarter	0.7
bio_14	最干月降水量 Precipitation of the driest month	0.1
bio_02	平均气温日较差 Mean diurnal air temperature range	0.1
bio_06	最冷月的最低气温 Min air temperature of the coldest month	0.1

气候变化背景下羌活在三江源的适宜分布

Suitable Distribution of Notopterygium incisum in the Three Rivers Headwater Region under Climate Change

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