秦岭北麓典型流域径流对气候和土地利用变化的响应——以灞河流域为例

doi:10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2024.05.013

生态环境学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (5): 802-811.DOI: 10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2024.05.013

• 研究论文【环境科学】 • 上一篇下一篇

秦岭北麓典型流域径流对气候和土地利用变化的响应——以灞河流域为例

李慧^*(), 邓佳伟, 李亚鑫, 母滢琦

西安科技大学地质与环境学院，陕西西安 710054

收稿日期:2024-01-12 出版日期:2024-05-18 发布日期:2024-06-27
通讯作者: *
作者简介:李慧（1991年生），女，讲师，博士，主要从事水文地质方面研究。E-mail: lihui@xust.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(42007186)

Impacts of Climate and Land Use Change on Runoff in Typical Basin of Northern Foothills of Qinling Mountains: Case Study of Bahe River Basin

LI Hui^*(), DENG Jiawei, LI Yaxin, MU Yingqi

College of Geology and Environment, Xi’an University of Science and Technology, Xi’an 710054, P. R. China

Received:2024-01-12 Online:2024-05-18 Published:2024-06-27

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

气候和土地利用变化对径流变化的影响显著，为探究两者影响下秦岭北麓典型城市流域径流的变化特征及响应机制，选择灞河流域为研究对象，根据灞河流域1960－2018年水文气象数据和1985－2018年土地利用，采用滑动T检验、TFPW-MK秩次检验、连续小波变换（CWT）、交叉小波变换（XWT）、小波相干分析（WTC）等方法对流域水文、气象及下垫面要素的变化特征及流域径流与气象要素的共振周期、相关性与时滞性进行了研究；并结合SWAT模型，通过设置多种变化情景探明流域径流对气候和土地利用变化的响应机制。结果表明：1）1960－2018年灞河流域径流量呈显著下降趋势，1985－2018年灞河流域城镇建设用地增加了近3倍，耕地面积呈减少趋势；2）径流与气象因子在时频域中均存在不同尺度的共振周期和时滞效应，降水和径流在高能区存在5个显著的共振周期，气温和径流在高能区存在3个显著的共振周期，且径流滞后于气象因子的变化；3）年均径流量与降水量呈正相关，与气温呈负相关，流域径流变化主要由降水主导，且在降水增加情景下，径流对降水变化的敏感性高于降水减少情景；耕地全部转化为林地会导致年径流量减少2.58%，草地全部转化为林地会使年径流量增加0.822%，耕地全部转为城镇建设用地使年径流量增加40.8%；4）气候和土地利用变化共同作用下，灞河流域径流变幅为−0.870 m³∙s⁻¹，其中气候变化引起的径流量变幅为−1.04 m³∙s⁻¹，土地利用变化引起的变幅为0.170 m³∙s⁻¹，相比土地利用变化，气候变化对于灞河流域径流变化的影响更显著。

关键词: 气候变化, 土地利用变化, 交叉小波变换, 小波相干, 径流, SWAT模型, 灞河流域

Abstract:

The impacts of climate and land use changes on runoff variation were significant. The Bahe River Basin was selected as the study area to explore the characteristics and response mechanisms of runoff variation in a typical urban watershed at the northern foot of the Qinling Mountains under the influence of both factors. Hydrometeorological data from 1960 to 2018 and land use data from 1985 to 2018 in the Bahe River Basin, methods including the sliding T-test, Trend-Free Pre-Whitening Mann-Kendall (TFPW-MK) rank test, Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT), Cross Wavelet Transform (XWT), and Wavelet Transform Coherence (WTC), were employed to study the characteristics of hydrological, meteorological, and underlying surface element changes in the watershed, as well as the resonance periods, correlations, and temporal characteristics of watershed runoff and meteorological elements. Additionally, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to explore the response mechanisms of watershed runoff to climate and land-use changes under various scenarios. The results indicate that 1) from 1960 to 2018, runoff in the Bahe River Basin showed a significant decreasing trend, while urban construction land increased nearly threefold, and the area of cultivated land decreased from 1985 to 2018. 2) In the time-frequency domain, runoff and meteorological factors exhibited resonance periods and time lag effects at different scales. Precipitation and runoff showed five significant resonance periods in the high-energy area, whereas temperature and runoff presented three significant resonance periods, with runoff lagging behind changes in meteorological factors. 3) Annual runoff was positively correlated with precipitation and negatively correlated with temperature. Precipitation is the dominant factor affecting watershed runoff, and under scenarios of increased precipitation, the sensitivity of runoff to precipitation changes was higher than that under scenarios of decreased precipitation. The conversion of cultivated land to forest land may lead to a 2.58% decrease in annual runoff, whereas the conversion of grasslands to forests may increase annual runoff by 0.822%. The conversion of all cultivated land to urban construction land may increase annual runoff by 40.8%. 4) Under the combined effects of climate and land use changes, the variation range of runoff in the Bahe River basin was −0.870 m³∙s⁻¹, with climate change causing a variation range of −1.04 m³∙s⁻¹, and land use change causing a variation range of 0.170 m³∙s⁻¹. Compared with land-use change, climate change had a more significant impact on runoff variation in the Bahe River Basin.

Key words: climate change, land use change, cross wavelet transform, wavelet coherence, runoff, SWAT model, Bahe River basin

中图分类号:

X144
X16

李慧, 邓佳伟, 李亚鑫, 母滢琦. 秦岭北麓典型流域径流对气候和土地利用变化的响应——以灞河流域为例[J]. 生态环境学报, 2024, 33(5): 802-811.

LI Hui, DENG Jiawei, LI Yaxin, MU Yingqi. Impacts of Climate and Land Use Change on Runoff in Typical Basin of Northern Foothills of Qinling Mountains: Case Study of Bahe River Basin[J]. Ecology and Environment, 2024, 33(5): 802-811.

图/表 15

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土地利用类型	1985年		2000年		2018年
土地利用类型	面积/ km²	占比/ %	面积/ km²	占比/ %	面积/ km²	占比/ %
耕地	1.26×10³	47.4	1.19×10³	44.6	986	37.1
林地	1.19×10³	44.8	1.25×10³	46.9	1.37×10³	51.5
草地	126	4.74	93.9	3.53	29.0	1.09
水域	4.83	0.181	3.67	0.14	10.4	0.392
裸地	6.04×10⁻³	3.76×10⁻⁴	0.00	0.00	9.18×10⁻²	3.38×10⁻³
城镇建设用地	76.0	2.86	129	4.83	265	9.95

土地利用类型	1985年		2000年		2018年
土地利用类型	面积/ km²	占比/ %	面积/ km²	占比/ %	面积/ km²	占比/ %
耕地	1.26×10³	47.4	1.19×10³	44.6	986	37.1
林地	1.19×10³	44.8	1.25×10³	46.9	1.37×10³	51.5
草地	126	4.74	93.9	3.53	29.0	1.09
水域	4.83	0.181	3.67	0.14	10.4	0.392
裸地	6.04×10⁻³	3.76×10⁻⁴	0.00	0.00	9.18×10⁻²	3.38×10⁻³
城镇建设用地	76.0	2.86	129	4.83	265	9.95

敏感性排名	参数名称	参数含义	t值	p值	最佳值
1	R__CN2	SCS径流曲线值	9.13	0.000	0.260
2	V__ALPHA_BF	基流消退系数	2.28	0.024	0.768
3	V__SLSUBBSN	平均坡长	−1.45	0.149	31.4
4	V__CANMX	最大冠层截留量	−1.42	0.159	0.175
5	V__ESCO	土壤蒸发补偿因子	−1.41	0.160	0.478
6	V__GW_DELAY	地下水迟滞时间	1.17	0.244	321
7	R__SOL_K	土壤饱和导水系数	1.12	0.263	0.796
8	V__GW_REVAP	地下水再蒸发系数	−1.11	0.270	0.183
9	V__SURLAG	地表径流延滞系数	1.08	0.280	18.2
10	V__CH_N2	主河道曼宁系数	0.950	0.346	0.260
11	R__SOL_Z	土壤表层到底层的深度	−0.789	0.431	0.473
12	V__EPCO	植物蒸腾补偿系数	−0.663	0.508	0.868
13	R__SOL_BD	土壤饱和容重	0.555	0.580	0.233
14	V__CH_K2	主河道水力传导率	−0.187	0.852	459
15	V__GWQMN	浅层地下水产生基流的阈值	−0.065	0.948	2.01×10³

敏感性排名	参数名称	参数含义	t值	p值	最佳值
1	R__CN2	SCS径流曲线值	9.13	0.000	0.260
2	V__ALPHA_BF	基流消退系数	2.28	0.024	0.768
3	V__SLSUBBSN	平均坡长	−1.45	0.149	31.4
4	V__CANMX	最大冠层截留量	−1.42	0.159	0.175
5	V__ESCO	土壤蒸发补偿因子	−1.41	0.160	0.478
6	V__GW_DELAY	地下水迟滞时间	1.17	0.244	321
7	R__SOL_K	土壤饱和导水系数	1.12	0.263	0.796
8	V__GW_REVAP	地下水再蒸发系数	−1.11	0.270	0.183
9	V__SURLAG	地表径流延滞系数	1.08	0.280	18.2
10	V__CH_N2	主河道曼宁系数	0.950	0.346	0.260
11	R__SOL_Z	土壤表层到底层的深度	−0.789	0.431	0.473
12	V__EPCO	植物蒸腾补偿系数	−0.663	0.508	0.868
13	R__SOL_BD	土壤饱和容重	0.555	0.580	0.233
14	V__CH_K2	主河道水力传导率	−0.187	0.852	459
15	V__GWQMN	浅层地下水产生基流的阈值	−0.065	0.948	2.01×10³

情景	情景设置说明
L₁	将所有耕地转化成林地
L₂	将所有草地转化成林地
L₄	将所有耕地转化成城镇建设用地

秦岭北麓典型流域径流对气候和土地利用变化的响应——以灞河流域为例

Impacts of Climate and Land Use Change on Runoff in Typical Basin of Northern Foothills of Qinling Mountains: Case Study of Bahe River Basin

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情景	土地利用数据年份	气候变化数据年份
S₁(基准期)	1985年	1960‒1989年
S₂	2000年	1960‒1989年
S₃	2018年	1960‒1989年
S₄	1985年	1990‒2018年
S₅	2000年	1990‒2018年
S₆	2018年	1990‒2018年

情景	气温/降水变化	年均径流量/ (m³·s⁻¹)	径流变化量/ (m³·s⁻¹)	变化率/ %
基准期	t, P	8.52	‒	‒
I₁	t, P (1−20%)	6.39	−2.13	−25.0
I₂	t, P (1−10%)	7.43	−1.09	−12.8
I₃	t, P (1+10%)	9.66	1.14	13.4
I₄	t, P (1+20%)	10.9	2.38	27.9
I₅	(t+1 ℃), P	8.50	−0.02	−0.235
I₆	(t+2 ℃), P	8.49	−0.03	−0.352

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情景	年均径流量/(m³·s⁻¹)	径流变化量/(m³·s⁻¹)	变化率/%
基准期	8.52	‒	‒
L₁	8.30	−0.220	−2.58
L₂	8.59	0.07	0.822
L₃	12.0	3.48	40.8

情景	年均径流量/(m³·s⁻¹)	径流变化量/(m³·s⁻¹)	变化率/%
基准期	8.52	‒	‒
L₁	8.30	−0.220	−2.58
L₂	8.59	0.07	0.822
L₃	12.0	3.48	40.8

情景	年均径流量/(m³·s⁻¹)	径流变化量/(m³·s⁻¹)	变化率/%
S₁(基准期)	8.52	‒	‒
S₂	8.56	0.04	0.469
S₃	8.69	0.170	2.00
S₄	7.48	−1.04	−12.2
S₅	7.51	−1.01	−11.9
S₆	7.65	−0.870	−10.2

情景	年均径流量/(m³·s⁻¹)	径流变化量/(m³·s⁻¹)	变化率/%
S₁(基准期)	8.52	‒	‒
S₂	8.56	0.04	0.469
S₃	8.69	0.170	2.00
S₄	7.48	−1.04	−12.2
S₅	7.51	−1.01	−11.9
S₆	7.65	−0.870	−10.2