2001-2020年中国植被净初级生产力时空变化及其驱动机制分析

doi:10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2022.11.002

生态环境学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (11): 2111-2123.DOI: 10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2022.11.002

2001-2020年中国植被净初级生产力时空变化及其驱动机制分析

石智宇(), 王雅婷, 赵清^*(), 张连蓬, 朱长明

江苏师范大学地理测绘与城乡规划学院，江苏徐州 221116

收稿日期:2022-06-03 出版日期:2022-11-18 发布日期:2022-12-22
通讯作者: *赵清（1965年生），男，教授，博士，研究方向为景观生态与土地利用。E-mail: zhaoqingla@163.com
作者简介:石智宇（1998年生），男，硕士研究生，研究方向为生态遥感与环境变化。E-mail: shizhiyu98@163.com
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFB3901300);重庆市农业产业数字化地图项目(21C00346);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目

The Spatiotemporal Changes of NPP and Its Driving Mechanisms in China from 2001 to 2020

SHI Zhiyu(), WANG Yating, ZHAO Qing^*(), ZHANG Lianpeng, ZHU Changming

Scool of Geography, Geomatics and Planning, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou 221116, P. R. China

Received:2022-06-03 Online:2022-11-18 Published:2022-12-22

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

植被净初级生产力（NPP）是表征生态系统物质和能量循环的基础，也是区域和全球碳循环的重要组成部分。为揭示2001-2020年中国净初级生产力时空变化特征及其驱动机制，基于MOD17A3HGF数据产品，运用Sen趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验以及Hurst指数等方法分析了中国植被NPP时空变化与未来发展趋势，并通过相关性、残差分析等方法定量分析了气候变化和人类活动在植被NPP变化过程中的相对作用。研究结果表明，（1）中国植被NPP空间上呈现东南高西北低的分布格局，时间上呈波动增加趋势，变化速率为2.86 g·m^-2·a^-1；空间变化以基本不变为主，NPP呈显著增加的面积明显大于显著减少的面积，未来中国84.38%的地区植被NPP将持续增加或由减少转为增加。（2）植被NPP与降水、气温总体上均呈正相关，其中降水对植被NPP影响更为显著；植被NPP与降水显著正相关的区域主要分布在长江以北地区，与气温显著正相关的区域主要分布在青藏高原中部和北部、云贵高原东南部、东南沿海地区以及山东南部等地。（3）气候变化和人类活动对中国植被NPP的增加均产生了重要作用，但两者在植被NPP改善区中的相对作用存在显著的空间差异性；气候变化主导的植被改善区主要集中在东北、华北、四川盆地及长江中下游平原等地区，人类活动主导植被改善区主要集中在华中、西南以及西北地区；而气候变化和人类活动对植被退化的影响在空间分布上较为一致，且气候变化对NPP退化区的影响较小，人类活动是植被NPP退化的主要因素。

关键词: 植被净初级生产力, 时空变化, 气候变化, 人类活动, 定量分析, 中国

Abstract:

Net primary productivity (NPP) is the basis for characterizing the material and energy cycle of the ecosystem, which is one of the important components of regional and global carbon cycle. In order to reveal the spatiotemporal change characteristics and driving mechanism of NPP in China from 2001 to 2020, based on MOD17A3HGF data products, the spatiotemporal change and future development trend of NPP in China were analyzed by Sen trend analysis, Mann-Kendall significance test and Hurst index. The relative roles of climate change and human activities in the process of NPP change were quantitatively analyzed by using correlation and residual analysis methods. The results showed that (1) China’s NPP presented a spatial distribution pattern of high in the southeast and low in the northwest, showing a fluctuating upward trend in time, with an upward rate of 2.86 g·m^-2·a^-1. The spatial change remained unchanged. The area with a significant increase in NPP was significantly larger than the area with a significant decrease. In the future, 84.38% of China's regional NPP will continue to increase or change from a decreasing to an increasing trend. (2) NPP was positively correlated with precipitation and temperature as a whole, of which precipitation had a more significant impact on NPP. The areas with significant positive correlations between NPP and precipitation were mainly distributed in the north of the Yangtze River. The areas with significant positive correlations with temperature were mainly distributed in the central and north of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau, the southeast of the Yunnan Guizhou Plateau, the southeast coastal area and the south of Shandong. (3) Both climate change and human activities played an important role in the NPP improvement areas, but there were significant spatial differences in their relative roles in NPP improvement areas. The vegetation improvement areas dominated by climate change were mainly concentrated in the northeast, north China, Sichuan Basin and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River plain, while the vegetation improvement areas dominated by human activities were mainly concentrated in central, southwest and northwest China. The impacts of climate change and human activities on vegetation degradation were relatively consistent in spatial distribution. The impacts of climate change on NPP degradation areas were slight, but human activities were the main factors causing NPP degradation.

Key words: net primary productivity, spatial change, climate change, human activity, quantitative assessment, China

中图分类号:

Q948
X173

石智宇, 王雅婷, 赵清, 张连蓬, 朱长明. 2001-2020年中国植被净初级生产力时空变化及其驱动机制分析[J]. 生态环境学报, 2022, 31(11): 2111-2123.

SHI Zhiyu, WANG Yating, ZHAO Qing, ZHANG Lianpeng, ZHU Changming. The Spatiotemporal Changes of NPP and Its Driving Mechanisms in China from 2001 to 2020[J]. Ecology and Environment, 2022, 31(11): 2111-2123.

图/表 12

图1 中国不同植被类型的空间分布基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站GS（2019）1822号标准地图制作，底图边界无修改。下同

Figure 1 Spatial distribution of different vegetation types in China Based on the standard map GS (2019) No.1822 of the standard map service website of the Ministry of Natural Resources, the base map boundary has not been modified. The same below

表1 气候变化与人类活动在植被净初级生产力变化中相对作用的评价方法

Table 1 Evaluation method of the relative role of climate change and human activities in the change of NPP

变化状态 Change state	情景 Scence	K_P	K_H	气候变化驱动 Climate change driven/%	人类活动驱动 Human activity driven/%	说明 Explanation
植被恢复 Vegetation restoration (K_A>0)	1	>0	>0	100	0	气候变化主导改善
	2	<0	<0	0	100	人类活动主导改善
	3	>0	<0	$∆ V NPP – P ∆ V NPP – P + ∆ V NPP – H ×100%$	$∆ V NPP – H ∆ V NPP – P + ∆ V NPP – H ×100%$	共同主导改善，以其各自变化量所占的比例为各自的相对贡献
植被退化 Vegetation degradation (K_A<0)	4	<0	<0	100	0	气候变化主导退化
	5	>0	>0	0	100	人类活动主导退化
	6	<0	>0	$∆ V NPP – P ∆ V NPP – P + ∆ V NPP – H ×100%$	$∆ V NPP – H ∆ V NPP – P + ∆ V NPP – H ×100%$	共同主导退化，以其各自变化量所占的比例为各自的相对贡献

表1 气候变化与人类活动在植被净初级生产力变化中相对作用的评价方法

Table 1 Evaluation method of the relative role of climate change and human activities in the change of NPP

变化状态 Change state	情景 Scence	K_P	K_H	气候变化驱动 Climate change driven/%	人类活动驱动 Human activity driven/%	说明 Explanation
植被恢复 Vegetation restoration (K_A>0)	1	>0	>0	100	0	气候变化主导改善
	2	<0	<0	0	100	人类活动主导改善
	3	>0	<0	$∆ V NPP – P ∆ V NPP – P + ∆ V NPP – H ×100%$	$∆ V NPP – H ∆ V NPP – P + ∆ V NPP – H ×100%$	共同主导改善，以其各自变化量所占的比例为各自的相对贡献
植被退化 Vegetation degradation (K_A<0)	4	<0	<0	100	0	气候变化主导退化
	5	>0	>0	0	100	人类活动主导退化
	6	<0	>0	$∆ V NPP – P ∆ V NPP – P + ∆ V NPP – H ×100%$	$∆ V NPP – H ∆ V NPP – P + ∆ V NPP – H ×100%$	共同主导退化，以其各自变化量所占的比例为各自的相对贡献

图2 2001-2020年中国平均植被NPP与各级NPP面积占比年际变化

Figure 2 Interannual variation of average NPP and percentage of each class of NPP in China from 2001 to 2020

图3 2001-2020年中国不同植被类型平均NPP年际变化

Figure 3 Interannual variation of average NPP of different vegetation types in China from 2001 to 2020

图4 2001-2020年中国平均植被NPP的分布特征

Figure 4 Distribution features of average NPP in China from 2001 to 2020

图5 2001-2020年中国植被NPP变化趋势及显著性检验

Figure 5 Change trend and significance test of NPP in China from 2001 to 2020

表2 2001-2020年中国NPP变化趋势统计

Table 2 Statistics of NPP change trend in China from 2001 to 2020

变化类型 Change type	判断依据 Judgment based	面积占比 Area proportion/%
极显著增加 Extremely significant increase	Sen>0, \|Z\|>2.58	33.50
显著增加 Significant increase	Sen>0, \|Z\|>1.96	15.54
无明显变化 Unobvious change	\|Z\|≤1.96	47.17
显著减少 Significant decrease	Sen<0, \|Z\|>1.96	1.15
极显著减少 Extremely significant decrease	Sen<0, \|Z\|>2.58	2.64

图6 中国植被NPP Hurst指数及其未来变化趋势

Figure 6 NPP Hurst index of vegetation in China and its future change trend

表3 中国植被NPP未来变化趋势统计

Table 3 Statistics of future change trend of NPP in China

变化类型 Change type	判断依据 Judgment based	面积占比 Area proportion/%
持续增加 Continuous increase	Sen>0, Hurst>0.5	21.03
增加转为减少Increase to decrease	Sen>0, Hurst<0.5	11.47
减少转为增加Decrease to increase	Sen<0, Hurst>0.5	63.35
持续减少 Continue decrease	Sen<0, Hurst>0.5	4.15

图7 植被NPP与降水和气温的偏相关系数及其显著性检验结果

Figure 7 Partial correlation coefficient and significance test results of NPP with precipitation and temperature

图8 2001-2020年气候变化和人类活动驱动下中国植被NPP的空间分布及变化趋势

Figure 8 Spatial distribution and change trend of NPP driven by climate change and human activities in China from 2001 to 2020

图9 气候变化与人类活动对中国NPP变化相对贡献率的空间分布

Figure 9 Spatial distribution of the relative contribution proportions of climate change and human activities to NPP changes in China

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2001-2020年中国植被净初级生产力时空变化及其驱动机制分析

The Spatiotemporal Changes of NPP and Its Driving Mechanisms in China from 2001 to 2020

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