2008－2022年华北平原七省市AOD时空变化特征及主要影响因素分析

doi:10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2025.02.008

生态环境学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (2): 256-267.DOI: 10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2025.02.008

• 研究论文【环境科学】 • 上一篇下一篇

2008－2022年华北平原七省市AOD时空变化特征及主要影响因素分析

赵乐鋆¹^,²(), 王诗瑶³^,⁴^,⁵, 赵子渝³^,⁴^,⁵, 洪星³^,⁴^,⁵, 李夫星³^,⁴^,⁵^,^*(), 吴佳仪³^,⁴^,⁵, 华婧妤³^,⁴^,⁵

1.中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所，江苏南京 211135
2.中国科学院大学，北京 100049
3.河北师范大学地理科学学院，河北石家庄 050024
4.河北省环境变化遥感识别技术创新中心，河北石家庄 050024
5.河北省环境演变与生态建设实验室，河北石家庄 050024

收稿日期:2024-07-30 出版日期:2025-02-18 发布日期:2025-03-03
通讯作者: *李夫星。E-mail: lifuxing6042@hebtu.edu.cn
作者简介:赵乐鋆（2002年生），男，硕士研究生，主要从事大气遥感、生态系统碳循环研究。E-mail: geozly20020611@163.com
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3204104);河北省自然科学基金青年项目(D2019205027);国家自然科学基金面上项目(42271121);大学生创新创业训练计划项目(202410094011)

Spatial and Temporal Variation of AOD in Seven Provinces and Cities of North China Plain from 2008 to 2022 and Its Main Influencing Factors

ZHAO Lejun¹^,²(), WANG Shiyao³^,⁴^,⁵, ZHAO Ziyu³^,⁴^,⁵, HONG Xing³^,⁴^,⁵, LI Fuxing³^,⁴^,⁵^,^*(), WU Jiayi³^,⁴^,⁵, HUA Jingyu³^,⁴^,⁵

1. Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 211135, P. R. China
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, P. R. China
3. School of Geographical Sciences, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050024, P. R. China
4. Hebei Technology Innovation Center for Remote Sensing Identification of Environmental Change, Shijiazhuang 050024, P. R. China
5. Hebei Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Ecological Construction, Shijiazhuang 050024, P. R. China

Received:2024-07-30 Online:2025-02-18 Published:2025-03-03

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以华北平原七省市为研究区，基于最优参数地理探测器与Pearson相关系数，从多时空尺度揭示其2008－2022年气溶胶光学厚度（AOD）的时空变化特征及主要影响因素。结果表明，1）华北平原七省市AOD空间异质性显著，豫东、鲁西与冀中南地区AOD偏高，冀北与豫西地区AOD偏低。各季节AOD大小关系为夏季（0.57）>春季（0.53）>冬季（0.46）>秋季（0.44）。2）近年来华北平原七省市AOD下降显著，空气质量明显好转。在AOD变化稳定性与持续性方面，冀鲁豫三省交界处AOD稳定性较差，以反持续性为主;冀北地区、江苏省与安徽省稳定性整体较好，以持续性为主。3）对AOD空间分异的地理探测结果表明，气温（0.607）、人口密度（0.531）和降水（0.318）是影响研究区AOD空间分异的最主要因素，降水与NDVI的影响程度随时间渐趋增强，风速与NDVI的影响程度始终偏弱;交互探测方面，气温与各时期交互作用较强的因子组合密切相关，二产产值占比是交互作用重要的辅助因子。4）研究区AOD变化与气温、降水呈负相关;与一产、二产产值占比呈正相关，与GDP及城市内部人口密度呈负相关。这表明产业结构的优化调整对中国大气污染治理贡献显著。

关键词: 气溶胶光学厚度, 时空变化, 最优参数地理探测器, Pearson相关系数, 华北平原

Abstract:

Utilizing the Optimal Parameter Geographical Detector (OPGD) and Pearson Correlation Coefficient, this study systematically examined spatiotemporal variations in Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) across seven provinces and cities in the North China Plain from 2008 to 2022. This analysis aimed to identify the primary influencing factors at multiple spatiotemporal scales. Key findings include the following: 1) Significant spatial heterogeneity in AOD was observed, with higher values in eastern Henan, western Shandong, and central-southern Hebei, and lower values in northern Hebei and western Henan. The AOD levels peaked in summer (0.57), followed by spring (0.53), winter (0.46), and autumn (0.44). 2) In recent years, there has been a notable decline in AOD levels and marked improvement in air quality across the North China Plain. Regarding the stability and sustainability of AOD changes, the region at the intersection of Hebei, Shandong, and Henan provinces exhibited poor stability, characterized by anti-sustainability trends. Conversely, northern Hebei, Jiangsu, and Anhui provinces demonstrated relatively stable conditions, trending towards sustainability. 3) The geographical detection results revealed that air temperature (0.607), population density (0.531), and precipitation (0.318) were the principal factors influencing AOD spatial differentiation. Over time, the influence of precipitation and NDVI increased, whereas that of wind speed and NDVI consistently showed minimal effects. Interaction detection indicated that temperature is closely associated with combinations of factors exhibiting strong interactions in each period, with the proportion of secondary industry output value playing a crucial role in these interactions. 4) The correlation analysis showed that AOD changes in the study area were negatively correlated with temperature and precipitation in the natural environment. The socioeconomic factors revealed that AOD change was positively correlated with the proportion of primary and secondary industry output values and negatively correlated with GDP and urban population density. These findings suggest that the optimization and adjustment of industrial structures have significantly contributed to air pollution control in China without compromising economic development and urbanization.

Key words: aerosol optical depth, spatiotemporal variation, OPGD, pearson correlation coefficient, North China Plain

中图分类号:

X823

赵乐鋆, 王诗瑶, 赵子渝, 洪星, 李夫星, 吴佳仪, 华婧妤. 2008－2022年华北平原七省市AOD时空变化特征及主要影响因素分析[J]. 生态环境学报, 2025, 34(2): 256-267.

ZHAO Lejun, WANG Shiyao, ZHAO Ziyu, HONG Xing, LI Fuxing, WU Jiayi, HUA Jingyu. Spatial and Temporal Variation of AOD in Seven Provinces and Cities of North China Plain from 2008 to 2022 and Its Main Influencing Factors[J]. Ecology and Environment, 2025, 34(2): 256-267.

图/表 10

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β	Z	变化趋势特征
β>0	2.58<\|Z\|	极显著增加
	1.96<\|Z\|≤2.58	显著增加
	1.65<\|Z\|≤1.96	微显著增加
	\|Z\|<1.65	不显著增加
β=0	Z	无变化
β<0	\|Z\|<1.65	不显著减少
	1.65<\|Z\|≤1.96	微显著减小
	1.96<\|Z\|≤2.58	显著减小
	2.58<\|Z\|	极显著减少

β	Z	变化趋势特征
β>0	2.58<\|Z\|	极显著增加
	1.96<\|Z\|≤2.58	显著增加
	1.65<\|Z\|≤1.96	微显著增加
	\|Z\|<1.65	不显著增加
β=0	Z	无变化
β<0	\|Z\|<1.65	不显著减少
	1.65<\|Z\|≤1.96	微显著减小
	1.96<\|Z\|≤2.58	显著减小
	2.58<\|Z\|	极显著减少

因子	2008－2022年平均		2008年		2015年		2022年
因子	q值	大小排序	q值	大小排序	q值	大小排序	q值	大小排序
X₁	0.607	1	0.488	1	0.581	1	0.475	2
X₂	0.318	3	0.149	6	0.251	3	0.427	3
X₃	0.221	5	0.137	7	0.242	4	0.180	7
X₄	0.091	8	0.020	8	0.085	7	0.214	6
X₅	0.531	2	0.461	2	0.507	2	0.507	1
X₆	0.135	7	0.236	3	0.082	8	0.259	4
X₇	0.194	6	0.157	5	0.185	5	0.176	8
X₈	0.223	4	0.221	4	0.155	6	0.235	5

因子	2008－2022年平均		2008年		2015年		2022年
因子	q值	大小排序	q值	大小排序	q值	大小排序	q值	大小排序
X₁	0.607	1	0.488	1	0.581	1	0.475	2
X₂	0.318	3	0.149	6	0.251	3	0.427	3
X₃	0.221	5	0.137	7	0.242	4	0.180	7
X₄	0.091	8	0.020	8	0.085	7	0.214	6
X₅	0.531	2	0.461	2	0.507	2	0.507	1
X₆	0.135	7	0.236	3	0.082	8	0.259	4
X₇	0.194	6	0.157	5	0.185	5	0.176	8
X₈	0.223	4	0.221	4	0.155	6	0.235	5

因子	2008－2022年		2008－2015年		2015－2022年
因子	相关系数	相关性强弱排序	相关系数	相关性强弱排序	相关系数	相关性强弱排序
X₁	−0.69	1	−0.38	1	−0.42	3
X₂	−0.23	5	−0.11	5	0.08	6
X₃	0.13	6	−0.07	7	−0.26	5
X₄	−0.02	8	0.03	8	0.05	8
X₅	−0.04	7	0.11	5	−0.06	7
X₆	−0.62	2	−0.23	3	−0.62	1
X₇	0.46	4	0.14	4	0.41	4
X₈	0.58	3	0.27	2	0.54	2

2008－2022年华北平原七省市AOD时空变化特征及主要影响因素分析

Spatial and Temporal Variation of AOD in Seven Provinces and Cities of North China Plain from 2008 to 2022 and Its Main Influencing Factors

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