Abstract:

Currently, due to the strain in human-land relationships, the accelerated advancement of economic globalization, and rapid population growth, various ecological challenges are gradually becoming a core focus for countries and international organizations. This is an important topic in research on the global ecosystem structure. With the rapid socio-economic development in China, the continuous expansion of construction land has become an inevitable trend, which not only exerts a profound impact on natural ecological changes and land cover structures but also poses a threat to the living environments of humans and animals. Habitat quality is the foundation and prerequisite of all ecosystem functions and services. Assessment of habitat quality and exploration of its impact mechanisms are key means of dealing with ecological problems and protecting the ecological environment. Additionally, research on the temporal and spatial changes in habitat quality and their influencing factors is vital for maintaining ecosystem balance and sustainability. The Basin of Yangtze River in Anhui Province serves as an essential ecological barrier in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, with important wetlands such as Shengjin Lake and Chaohu Lake. These wetlands are vital wintering and breeding grounds in China for dozens of nationally endangered wildlife species, including the Chinese alligator (Alligator sinensis) and hooded crane (Grus monacha), which also represent crucial nodes and wintering sites along the migration route of the East Asian-Australasian Flyway. Since 2010, the basin has been officially established as China’s first national-level demonstration zone for industrial transfer, resulting in rapid regional economic growth. However, significant ecological changes have occurred with the ongoing land-use development, attracting the attention of local governments and scholars. Therefore, ecological and environmental protection research is important. Therefore, this study comprehensively used land use data of the study area from 1990 to 2020 and selected the InVEST model, PLUS model, and geodetector to focus on spatiotemporal changes in past and future habitats in the study area and the optimization strategies. The following scientific issues should be addressed: 1) What are the spatiotemporal evolutionary characteristics of land use and habitat quality in this region from 1990 to 2020? 2) What are the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of land use and habitat quality in the study area under the four 2030 scenarios? 3) What are the impact mechanisms of habitat quality change in the study area? The scientific issues that this study focuses on provide valuable insights and effective decision support for regional landscape planning and ecological sustainability initiatives. The results showed the following. 1) The dominant land use types in the study area were paddy and forest lands, which accounted for approximately 77% of the total area. Notably, from 1990 to 2020, the main land use types in the study area were converted from paddy land to construction land, with a total of 2691.28 km². 2) During 1990-2020, the average habitat quality index decreased from 0.550 to 0.535 and the overall habitat quality decreased. 3) During 1990-2020, both natural and social factors influenced the spatial distribution of the habitat quality. The main influencing factor was land use followed by elevation. The interaction of all factors had stronger explanatory power for the change in habitat quality than that of individual factors. 4) The results of the multi-scenario simulation in 2030 showed that compared with 2020, the average habitat index would decline by 0.003 under inertia development and by 0.006 under urban development scenarios. Conversely, the habitat index for the paddy-land protection scenario should be maintained at the 2020 level. Notably, the average habitat index for the ecological protection scenario exhibited an increase of 0.004, indicating successful attainment of a dynamic balance between ecological protection and economic development. Research indicates that paddy land protection and ecological protection measures have played a significant role in effectively curbing the excessive expansion of construction land within the study area, thereby stabilizing and enhancing habitat quality. In the context of ecological protection, although there has been a slight reduction in paddy land and a minor increase in construction land, key ecological areas such as forest land have seen growth. This improvement in habitat quality compared with 2020 opens up new approaches for sustainable development in the Yangtze River Basin in Anhui Province. Therefore, the simultaneous implementation of paddy land and ecological protection policies is an effective strategy to prevent further habitat degradation. Future regional planning should prioritize the protection of ecological land, such as forestland and water, and strictly control the expansion of construction land to avoid encroaching on paddy lands, thus comprehensively enhancing the regional habitat quality. Moreover, due to the distinct diversity of topographical features in the Basin of Yangtze River in Anhui Province, planning authorities should adhere to the principle of “adapting measures to local conditions” in order to reasonably adjust and manage natural and human living spaces based on topographic characteristics. For instance, in the southwestern Dabie Mountains and southern Anhui Hills, where high terrain and rich forest resources are prevalent, low-intensity “agroforestry” zones can be established to moderately develop economic timber industries and distinctive ecological agricultural products. This approach not only bolsters the security of the region’s ecological barrier, but also enhances local residents’ well-being and promotes eco-economic development, thereby mitigating deforestation of surrounding forests driven by economic challenges. In relatively flat Jiangbei Plain and hilly regions with abundant paddy land resources, it is essential to rationally control the disorderly expansion of central cities. By improving the living environment of urban and rural residents as a focal point, comprehensive rural environmental remediation should be pursued, with the appropriate consolidation of small, dispersed settlements and the optimal utilization of existing construction land resources. In water-rich areas along a river, it is crucial to adopt a development philosophy that balances “protection and development.” All high-intensity anthropogenic development activities must be strictly prohibited to safeguard habitats for rare and endangered species and to maintain regional biodiversity stability. Major urban areas along the river should be aligned with urban development positioning, uphold ecological priorities, and restrict high-pollution and high-energy-consumption industries to mitigate adverse impacts of human activities on ecosystem quality.

Key words: InVEST, PLUS, Geographical detector, Habitat quality, The basin of Yangtze River in Anhui Province

摘要：

皖江流域是长江中下游地区重要的生态屏障区，探究该区域生境质量变化特征对区域生态可持续发展具有重要意义。以皖江流域为例，利用1990－2020年土地利用数据，结合InVEST模型和地理探测器探讨区域生境质量时空分布特征及驱动因素，并采用PLUS模型预测模拟区域2030年4种不同情境下的土地利用及生境质量变化。结果表明，1）耕地和林地是研究区主要土地利用类型，两者面积约占总面积的77%。1990－2020年期间，研究区主要土地利用变化是由耕地向建设用地转入，转入面积为2.69×10³ km²。2）1990－2020年期间，研究区生境质量平均指数由0.550下降至0.535，区域整体生境质量水平下降，生境低水平面积扩张趋势明显。3）1990－2020年生境质量时空分异是自然和社会因子的共同作用，主要影响因子是土地利用类型，其次是高程。各因子之间的交互作用对生境质量变化的解释力比单个因子更强。4）2030年多情景模拟结果显示，与2020年相比，惯性发展、城镇发展生境平均指数下降0.003、0.006，耕地保护情景生境与2020年持平。生态保护情景生境平均指数上升0.004，该情景实现了生态保护与经济发展的动态平衡。研究结果可为地区规划景观格局与生态可持续发展提供有效的决策支持。

关键词: InVEST模型, PLUS模型, 地理探测器, 生境质量, 皖江流域