生态环境学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (1): 110-122.DOI: 10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2023.01.012
收稿日期:
2022-09-19
出版日期:
2023-01-18
发布日期:
2023-04-06
通讯作者:
*作者简介:
付蓉(1992年生),女,硕士研究生,研究方向为资源环境遥感与GIS分析。E-mail: 1025780235@qq.com
基金资助:
FU Rong1(), WU Xinmei2, CHEN Bin3,*
Received:
2022-09-19
Online:
2023-01-18
Published:
2023-04-06
摘要:
近年来合肥市发展迅速,不透水面、建筑密度的迅速增加加剧了城市热岛效应。研究城市地表温度的空间分异性及驱动因素对城市规划和生态环境的改善有重要意义。然而目前对城市地表温度的研究仍存在空间分异探讨较少、单一因子解释力度不够、驱动因子交互影响研究不多等问题。利用2020年9月MOD11A2遥感影像,选取气压、相对湿度、短波辐射、DEM、NDVI、人口密度、夜间灯光为驱动因子,对合肥市地表温度的空间分异性及地表温度驱动因子的差异性进行分析。首先将合肥市划分为1 km×1 km的单元网格并提取地表温度和各驱动因子的值,然后利用地理探测器确定该区域地表温度的空间分异性,最后结合广义可加模型对地表温度进行驱动因子分析。结果表明,(1)合肥市地表温度空间分异q值为0.575,各驱动因子空间分异q值均大于0且均通过P<0.01的显著性检验,地表温度和各因子的空间分异性显著。地表温度大致呈现中心高、四周低的空间格局,因此,将研究区域分为高温区和低温区。(2)利用GAM拟合地表温度与驱动因子,得到高温区驱动因子显著性排序为夜间灯光>NDVI>短波辐射>人口密度>相对湿度>DEM>气压;低温区驱动因子显著性排序为NDVI>夜间灯光>短波辐射>人口密度>气压>相对湿度>DEM。(3)高温区和低温区因子交互均在P<0.001水平下显著影响地表温度分布,模型调整后均优于单因素拟合模型,说明因子交互对地表温度影响更大。合肥市高温区和低温区的地表温度的主控因素不同,因子间交互对地表温度的影响更显著,可根据主控因素差异调节热环境,为今后城市发展规划提供参考依据。
中图分类号:
付蓉, 武新梅, 陈斌. 城市地表温度空间分异及驱动因子差异性分析——以合肥市为例[J]. 生态环境学报, 2023, 32(1): 110-122.
FU Rong, WU Xinmei, CHEN Bin. Analysis on the Spatial Stratified Heterogeneity and Driving Factors Differences of the Urban Land Surface Temperature: A Case Study of Hefei[J]. Ecology and Environment, 2023, 32(1): 110-122.
数据 | 数据简记 | 时间分辨率 | 空间分辨率 | 数据来源 |
---|---|---|---|---|
地表温度 | LST | 8 d | 1 km | NASA ( |
归一化植被指数 | NDVI | 16 d | 1 km | NASA ( |
数字高程模型 | DEM | — | 30 m | USGS ( |
人口密度 | DP | — | 1 km | 美国能源部橡树岭国家实验室 ( |
夜间灯光 | NL | 1 m | 0.5 km | 国家青藏高原科学数据中心 ( |
相对湿度 | RH | 1 m | 1 km | 国家科技基础条件平台—国家地球系统科学数据中心 ( |
气压 | AP | 1 d | 0.0625(°) | 国家气象科学数据中心 ( CLDAS-V2.0数据集 |
短波辐射 | SR | 1 d |
表1 研究数据
Table 1 Research data
数据 | 数据简记 | 时间分辨率 | 空间分辨率 | 数据来源 |
---|---|---|---|---|
地表温度 | LST | 8 d | 1 km | NASA ( |
归一化植被指数 | NDVI | 16 d | 1 km | NASA ( |
数字高程模型 | DEM | — | 30 m | USGS ( |
人口密度 | DP | — | 1 km | 美国能源部橡树岭国家实验室 ( |
夜间灯光 | NL | 1 m | 0.5 km | 国家青藏高原科学数据中心 ( |
相对湿度 | RH | 1 m | 1 km | 国家科技基础条件平台—国家地球系统科学数据中心 ( |
气压 | AP | 1 d | 0.0625(°) | 国家气象科学数据中心 ( CLDAS-V2.0数据集 |
短波辐射 | SR | 1 d |
指标 | 地表温度 | 气压 | 相对湿度 | 短波辐射 | 夜间灯光 | 人口密度 | 归一化植被指数 | 高程 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
q | 0.575 | 0.554 | 0.397 | 0.758 | 0.605 | 0.32 | 0.65 | 0.337 |
P | <0.01 |
表2 LST及各因子空间分异值
Table 2 The q values of LST and each factor
指标 | 地表温度 | 气压 | 相对湿度 | 短波辐射 | 夜间灯光 | 人口密度 | 归一化植被指数 | 高程 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
q | 0.575 | 0.554 | 0.397 | 0.758 | 0.605 | 0.32 | 0.65 | 0.337 |
P | <0.01 |
模型 | 修正决定r2 | 偏差解释率 | GCV值 | AIC值 |
---|---|---|---|---|
g(x) | 0.772 | 77.7% | 0.739 | 6198.62 |
g1(x) | 0.771 | 77.4% | 0.742 | 6208.95 |
g2(x) | 0.759 | 76.3% | 0.782 | 6335.66 |
g3(x) | 0.770 | 77.4% | 0.746 | 6222.04 |
g4(x) | 0.763 | 76.7% | 0.768 | 6290.55 |
g5(x) | 0.688 | 69.3% | 1.011 | 6962.92 |
g6(x) | 0.769 | 77.3% | 0.748 | 6227.12 |
g7(x) | 0.737 | 74.2% | 0.852 | 6545.90 |
表3 各模型拟合结果
Table 3 Fitting analysis results of models
模型 | 修正决定r2 | 偏差解释率 | GCV值 | AIC值 |
---|---|---|---|---|
g(x) | 0.772 | 77.7% | 0.739 | 6198.62 |
g1(x) | 0.771 | 77.4% | 0.742 | 6208.95 |
g2(x) | 0.759 | 76.3% | 0.782 | 6335.66 |
g3(x) | 0.770 | 77.4% | 0.746 | 6222.04 |
g4(x) | 0.763 | 76.7% | 0.768 | 6290.55 |
g5(x) | 0.688 | 69.3% | 1.011 | 6962.92 |
g6(x) | 0.769 | 77.3% | 0.748 | 6227.12 |
g7(x) | 0.737 | 74.2% | 0.852 | 6545.90 |
平滑效应项 | 估计自由度 | 参考自由度 | F值 | P值 | 显著性排序 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
AP | 8.058 | 8.771 | 2.725 | 0.00696 | 7 |
SR | 8.181 | 8.809 | 17.772 | <2×10-16 | 3 |
RH | 3.129 | 4.000 | 6.415 | 0.00004 | 5 |
DP | 7.023 | 8.100 | 12.481 | <2×10-16 | 4 |
NL | 6.029 | 7.213 | 129.351 | <2×10-16 | 1 |
DEM | 6.67 | 7.664 | 4.700 | 0.00002 | 6 |
NDVI | 5.691 | 6.902 | 55.814 | <2×10-16 | 2 |
表4 高温区LST与7个因子的GAM拟合结果
Table 4 GAM fitting results of high LST and 7 factors in the high temperature region
平滑效应项 | 估计自由度 | 参考自由度 | F值 | P值 | 显著性排序 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
AP | 8.058 | 8.771 | 2.725 | 0.00696 | 7 |
SR | 8.181 | 8.809 | 17.772 | <2×10-16 | 3 |
RH | 3.129 | 4.000 | 6.415 | 0.00004 | 5 |
DP | 7.023 | 8.100 | 12.481 | <2×10-16 | 4 |
NL | 6.029 | 7.213 | 129.351 | <2×10-16 | 1 |
DEM | 6.67 | 7.664 | 4.700 | 0.00002 | 6 |
NDVI | 5.691 | 6.902 | 55.814 | <2×10-16 | 2 |
图5 高温区LST与单因子的GAM拟合图 蓝色阴影区域表示可信区间,实线表示LST的平滑拟合曲线,横坐标表示各因子的实测值,纵坐标表示各因子对LST的平滑拟合值,括号内数值表示估计自由度
Figure 5 GAM fitting diagram of LST and single factor in the high temperature region
交互项 | 估计自由度 | 参考自由度 | F值 | P值 |
---|---|---|---|---|
AP×DP | 8.007 | 9.146 | 19.13 | <2×10-16 |
AP×SR | 10.441 | 11.923 | 13.39 | <2×10-16 |
AP×NL | 10.844 | 12.114 | 8.332 | <2×10-16 |
AP×RH | 12.333 | 13.342 | 40.6 | <2×10-16 |
AP×DEM | 10.505 | 11.654 | 16.97 | <2×10-16 |
AP×NDVI | 9.788 | 11.417 | 11.42 | <2×10-16 |
SR×DP | 7.795 | 9.116 | 27.66 | <2×10-16 |
SR×NL | 10.183 | 11.929 | 7.047 | <2×10-16 |
SR×RH | 6.865 | 8.346 | 5.536 | <0.00001 |
SR×DEM | 9.610 | 11.07 | 17.22 | <2×10-16 |
SR×NDVI | 7.459 | 9.117 | 25.1 | <2×10-16 |
DP×NL | 9.313 | 10.723 | 14.9 | <2×10-16 |
DP×RH | 5.958 | 7.254 | 11.05 | <2×10-16 |
DP×DEM | 7.052 | 15 | 11.4 | <2×10-16 |
DP×NDVI | 6.364 | 7.756 | 16.78 | <2×10-16 |
NL×RH | 8.992 | 11.045 | 4.528 | <0.00001 |
NL×DEM | 8.564 | 10.221 | 7.949 | <2×10-16 |
NL×NDVI | 8.707 | 10.852 | 8.717 | <2×10-16 |
RH×DEM | 8.438 | 10.03 | 6.041 | <2×10-16 |
RH×NDVI | 9.634 | 11.406 | 7.525 | <2×10-16 |
DEM×NDVI | 7.715 | 9.19 | 16.3 | <2×10-16 |
表5 高温区LST与影响因子交互作用项的GAM拟合结果
Table 5 GAM fitting results of interaction terms between LST and influencing factors in the high temperature region
交互项 | 估计自由度 | 参考自由度 | F值 | P值 |
---|---|---|---|---|
AP×DP | 8.007 | 9.146 | 19.13 | <2×10-16 |
AP×SR | 10.441 | 11.923 | 13.39 | <2×10-16 |
AP×NL | 10.844 | 12.114 | 8.332 | <2×10-16 |
AP×RH | 12.333 | 13.342 | 40.6 | <2×10-16 |
AP×DEM | 10.505 | 11.654 | 16.97 | <2×10-16 |
AP×NDVI | 9.788 | 11.417 | 11.42 | <2×10-16 |
SR×DP | 7.795 | 9.116 | 27.66 | <2×10-16 |
SR×NL | 10.183 | 11.929 | 7.047 | <2×10-16 |
SR×RH | 6.865 | 8.346 | 5.536 | <0.00001 |
SR×DEM | 9.610 | 11.07 | 17.22 | <2×10-16 |
SR×NDVI | 7.459 | 9.117 | 25.1 | <2×10-16 |
DP×NL | 9.313 | 10.723 | 14.9 | <2×10-16 |
DP×RH | 5.958 | 7.254 | 11.05 | <2×10-16 |
DP×DEM | 7.052 | 15 | 11.4 | <2×10-16 |
DP×NDVI | 6.364 | 7.756 | 16.78 | <2×10-16 |
NL×RH | 8.992 | 11.045 | 4.528 | <0.00001 |
NL×DEM | 8.564 | 10.221 | 7.949 | <2×10-16 |
NL×NDVI | 8.707 | 10.852 | 8.717 | <2×10-16 |
RH×DEM | 8.438 | 10.03 | 6.041 | <2×10-16 |
RH×NDVI | 9.634 | 11.406 | 7.525 | <2×10-16 |
DEM×NDVI | 7.715 | 9.19 | 16.3 | <2×10-16 |
图6 部分影响因子交互项对高温区LST显著性影响的三维效应图
Figure 6 Three-dimensional significant effect diagram of the influence of some interaction terms on LST the high temperature region
平滑效应项 | 估计自由度 | 参考自由度 | F值 | P值 | 显著性排序 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
AP | 8.498 | 8.920 | 22.069 | <2×10-16 | 5 |
SR | 8.418 | 8.902 | 48.090 | <2×10-16 | 3 |
RH | 4.812 | 6.001 | 16.972 | <2×10-16 | 6 |
DP | 8.728 | 8.976 | 34.661 | <2×10-16 | 4 |
NL | 6.954 | 7.972 | 67.440 | <2×10-16 | 2 |
DEM | 6.787 | 7.816 | 4.903 | <0.0001 | 7 |
NDVI | 7.781 | 8.617 | 166.857 | <2×10-16 | 1 |
表6 低温区LST与7个因子的GAM拟合结果
Table 6 GAM fitting results of LST and 7 factors the low temperature region
平滑效应项 | 估计自由度 | 参考自由度 | F值 | P值 | 显著性排序 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
AP | 8.498 | 8.920 | 22.069 | <2×10-16 | 5 |
SR | 8.418 | 8.902 | 48.090 | <2×10-16 | 3 |
RH | 4.812 | 6.001 | 16.972 | <2×10-16 | 6 |
DP | 8.728 | 8.976 | 34.661 | <2×10-16 | 4 |
NL | 6.954 | 7.972 | 67.440 | <2×10-16 | 2 |
DEM | 6.787 | 7.816 | 4.903 | <0.0001 | 7 |
NDVI | 7.781 | 8.617 | 166.857 | <2×10-16 | 1 |
交互项 | 估计自由度 | 参考自由度 | F值 | P值 |
---|---|---|---|---|
AP×DP | 11.829 | 12.766 | 44.76 | <2×10-16 |
AP×SR | 15.328 | 15.615 | 30.88 | <2×10-16 |
AP×NL | 15.873 | 15.992 | 18.91 | <2×10-16 |
AP×RH | 15.873 | 15.992 | 18.91 | <2×10-16 |
AP×DEM | 13.997 | 14.273 | 3.251 | 0.0000836 |
AP×NDVI | 14.689 | 15.436 | 7.433 | <2×10-16 |
SR×DP | 12.726 | 13.683 | 15.95 | <2×10-16 |
SR×NL | 13.134 | 13.724 | 41.44 | <2×10-16 |
SR×RH | 14.677 | 15.632 | 34.17 | <2×10-16 |
SR×DEM | 11.411 | 12.27 | 28 | <2×10-16 |
SR×NDVI | 15.948 | 15.998 | 12.57 | <2×10-16 |
DP×NL | 14.949 | 15.52 | 15.45 | <2×10-16 |
DP×RH | 9.632 | 10.709 | 18.84 | <2×10-16 |
DP×DEM | 7.966 | 15.000 | 56.14 | <2×10-16 |
DP×NDVI | 6.973 | 8.653 | 9.933 | <2×10-16 |
NL×RH | 13.927 | 14.825 | 16.02 | <2×10-16 |
NL×DEM | 11.08 | 12.148 | 43.48 | <2×10-16 |
NL×NDVI | 11.938 | 13.475 | 5.941 | <2×10-16 |
RH×DEM | 12.245 | 13.153 | 22.559 | <2×10-16 |
RH×NDVI | 12.988 | 14.064 | 6.376 | <2×10-16 |
DEM×NDVI | 6.062 | 7.44 | 21.5 | <2×10-16 |
表7 低温区LST与影响因子交互作用项的GAM拟合结果
Table 7 GAM fitting results of interaction terms between LST and influencing factors in the low temperature region
交互项 | 估计自由度 | 参考自由度 | F值 | P值 |
---|---|---|---|---|
AP×DP | 11.829 | 12.766 | 44.76 | <2×10-16 |
AP×SR | 15.328 | 15.615 | 30.88 | <2×10-16 |
AP×NL | 15.873 | 15.992 | 18.91 | <2×10-16 |
AP×RH | 15.873 | 15.992 | 18.91 | <2×10-16 |
AP×DEM | 13.997 | 14.273 | 3.251 | 0.0000836 |
AP×NDVI | 14.689 | 15.436 | 7.433 | <2×10-16 |
SR×DP | 12.726 | 13.683 | 15.95 | <2×10-16 |
SR×NL | 13.134 | 13.724 | 41.44 | <2×10-16 |
SR×RH | 14.677 | 15.632 | 34.17 | <2×10-16 |
SR×DEM | 11.411 | 12.27 | 28 | <2×10-16 |
SR×NDVI | 15.948 | 15.998 | 12.57 | <2×10-16 |
DP×NL | 14.949 | 15.52 | 15.45 | <2×10-16 |
DP×RH | 9.632 | 10.709 | 18.84 | <2×10-16 |
DP×DEM | 7.966 | 15.000 | 56.14 | <2×10-16 |
DP×NDVI | 6.973 | 8.653 | 9.933 | <2×10-16 |
NL×RH | 13.927 | 14.825 | 16.02 | <2×10-16 |
NL×DEM | 11.08 | 12.148 | 43.48 | <2×10-16 |
NL×NDVI | 11.938 | 13.475 | 5.941 | <2×10-16 |
RH×DEM | 12.245 | 13.153 | 22.559 | <2×10-16 |
RH×NDVI | 12.988 | 14.064 | 6.376 | <2×10-16 |
DEM×NDVI | 6.062 | 7.44 | 21.5 | <2×10-16 |
图8 部分影响因子交互项对低温区LST显著性影响的三维效应图
Figure 8 Three-dimensional significant effect diagram of the influence of some interaction terms on LST the low temperature region
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