青海湖水位变化成因分析及其未来趋势预估研究

doi:10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2021.07.017

生态环境学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (7): 1482-1491.DOI: 10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2021.07.017

青海湖水位变化成因分析及其未来趋势预估研究

周丹¹(), 张娟²^,^*, 罗静³, 郭广¹, 李宝华¹

1.青海省气象服务中心,青海西宁 810001
2.青海省气象科学研究所,青海西宁 810001
3.青海师范大学地理科学学院,青海西宁 810001

收稿日期:2021-02-23 出版日期:2021-07-18 发布日期:2021-10-09
通讯作者: *
作者简介:周丹（1989年生）,男,工程师,主要从事专业气象预报服务研究。E-mail: www.zhoudan.6666@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41861049);青海省科技厅项目(2019-HZ-820)

Analysis on the Causes of Qinghai Lake Water Level Changes and Prediction of Its Future Trends

ZHOU Dan¹(), ZHANG Juan²^,^*, LUO Jing³, GUO Guang¹, LI Baohua¹

1. Qinghai Provincial Meteorological Service Center, Xining 810001, China
2. Qinghai Province Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Xining 810001, China
3. College of Geography, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810001, China

Received:2021-02-23 Online:2021-07-18 Published:2021-10-09

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

青海湖是维系青藏高原东北部生态安全的重要屏障,其水位变化更是青藏高原气候和生态环境变化的指示器和调节器。利用1961—2020年下社水文站水位观测资料分析青海湖水位变化特征,基于青海湖流域气象观测资料揭示其水位变化成因,并结合水位回升期气象影响因素及未来气候变化预估数据,对青海湖2021—2050年水位变化进行了模拟预测,旨在为湖区生态环境保护规划与管理提供科学的依据和参考。主要结论,（1）1961—2020年青海湖年平均水位为3194.36 m。1961—2004年青海湖年平均水位呈显著下降趋势,下降变化率为0.76 m/10 a。从2005年开始,青海湖年平均水位止跌回升,上升变化率为2.01 m/10 a,2020年平均水位达3196.34 m。（2）青海湖水位变化主要受气候干湿交替因素控制,降水量是最主要的因素,2005年以来水位持续上升主要取决于全球增暖情形下夏季降水量和降水强度同时增加。地表径流和地下水补给也起着一定作用。此外,人类积极的环境保护活动对青海湖水位上升也十分有利。（3）温室气体中等排放情景下,预测2021—2050年青海湖水位呈持续增加趋势,其中2021—2030年增加1.63 m,2031—2040年增加1.86 m,2041—2050年增加2.02 m。2041年青海湖水位将达到3200.0 m,2050年将达到3201.85 m。

关键词: 青海湖, 水位变化, 成因分析, 未来趋势预估, 气候变化

Abstract:

Qinghai Lake is an important barrier for maintaining ecological security in the northeast of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and its water level changes are an indicator and regulator of changes in the climate and ecological environment of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. This paper used the water level observation data of Xiashe Hydrological Station from 1961 to 2020 to analyze the characteristics of the water level change of Qinghai Lake. Based on the meteorological observation data of Qinghai Lake basin, it revealed the cause of the water level change, and combined the meteorological influence factors during the water level rise period and the forecast data of future climate change to simulate and predict the water level change of Qinghai Lake from 2021 to 2050, aiming to provide scientific basis and reference for the ecological environment protection planning and management of the lake area. The main conclusions of the study were as follows, (1) the average annual water level of Qinghai Lake from 1961 to 2020 was 3194.36 m. From 1961 to 2004, the annual average water level of Qinghai Lake showed a significant downward trend, with a decline rate of 0.76 m/10 a. Since 2005, the annual average water level of Qinghai Lake had stopped falling and rebounded, with an increase rate of 2.01 m/10 a, and the average water level in 2020 would reach 3196.34 m. (2) The water level change was mainly controlled by the alternating wet and dry climate factors, and the amount of precipitation was the most important factor, the continuous rise of water levels since 2005 was mainly due to the simultaneous increase in summer rainfall and rainfall intensity under global warming conditions. Surface runoff and groundwater recharge also played a role. In addition, the active environmental protection activities of human beings were also very beneficial to the rise of the water level of Qinghai Lake. (3) The forecast under the scenario of moderate greenhouse gas emissions showed that the water level of Qinghai Lake would continue to increase from 2021 to 2050, and the water level of Qinghai Lake would increase by 1.63 m from 2021 to 2030, 1.85 m from 2031 to 2040, and 2.00 m from 2041 to 2050. The water level of Qinghai Lake would reach 3200 m in 2041 and 3201.82 m in 2050.

Key words: Qinghai Lake, water level change, cause analysis, future trend forecast, climate change

中图分类号:

X143
P333

周丹, 张娟, 罗静, 郭广, 李宝华. 青海湖水位变化成因分析及其未来趋势预估研究[J]. 生态环境学报, 2021, 30(7): 1482-1491.

ZHOU Dan, ZHANG Juan, LUO Jing, GUO Guang, LI Baohua. Analysis on the Causes of Qinghai Lake Water Level Changes and Prediction of Its Future Trends[J]. Ecology and Environment, 2021, 30(7): 1482-1491.

图/表 11

图1 青海湖概况图

Fig. 1 Overview of Qinghai Lake

图2 1961—2020年青海湖年平均水位变化趋势图

Fig. 2 Change trend of the annual average water level of Qinghai Lake in 1961-2020

图3 青海湖流域夏季平均降水量年际变化趋势

Fig. 3 Inter-annual variation trend of summer average rainfall in Qinghai Lake Basin

图4 青海湖流域夏季降水量≥5.0 mm和≥10.0 mm日数变化趋势

Fig. 4 Variation trend of the number of days of summer precipitation ≥5.0 mm and ≥10.0 mm in Qinghai Lake Basin

图5 青海湖流域布哈河年平均径流量变化趋势及距平变化

Fig. 5 Variation trend and anomaly of Buha River annual average runoff in Qinghai Lake Basin

图6 青海湖流域沙柳河年平均径流量变化趋势及距平变化

Fig. 6 Variation trend and anomaly of Shaliu River annual average runoff in Qinghai Lake Basin

图7 青海湖陆面蒸发量和年最大冻土深度变化趋势

Fig. 7 Variation trend of land surface evaporation and annual maximum frozen soil depth in Qinghai Lake

表1 未来不同时间段内年降水量和年蒸发量距平百分率

Table 1 Anomaly percentages of annual precipitation and annual evaporation in different time periods in the future

时段 Time period	年降水量距平百分率 Percentage of annual precipitation anomaly/%	年蒸发量距平百分率 Percentage of annual evaporation anomaly/%
2021-2030	0.9	5.9
2031-2040	6.3	6.3
2041-2050	10.6	7.4
2021-2050	5.9	6.5

图8 青海湖未来年平均降水量和年平均蒸发量距平百分率

Fig. 8 Percentage of the future annual average precipitation and annual average evaporation anomaly in Qinghai Lake Basin

表2 2021—2050年青海湖年水位预测变化表

Table 2 Annual water level forecast changes of Qinghai Lake from 2021 to 2050

年份 Years	变化水位 Changing water level/m	年份 Years	变化水位 Changing water level/m	年份 Years	变化水位 Changing water level/m
2021	0.18	2031	0.07	2041	0.25
2022	0.17	2032	0.19	2042	0.27
2023	0.10	2033	0.16	2043	0.14
2024	0.16	2034	0.16	2044	0.30
2025	0.18	2035	0.21	2045	0.08
2026	0.17	2036	0.34	2046	0.13
2027	0.12	2037	0.14	2047	0.13
2028	0.23	2038	0.18	2048	0.33
2029	0.16	2039	0.21	2049	0.23
2030	0.16	2040	0.20	2050	0.16
合计 Total	1.63		1.86		2.02

图9 2021—2050年青海湖年水位预测变化趋势

Fig. 9 Predicted change trend of the annual water level of Qinghai Lake from 2021 to 2050

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青海湖水位变化成因分析及其未来趋势预估研究

Analysis on the Causes of Qinghai Lake Water Level Changes and Prediction of Its Future Trends

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