Abstract:

As a core area of the ecological protection and high-quality development strategy in the Yellow River Basin and the water source of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion project, Henan Province plays an important role in national ecological security. It is of great significance to study the evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of ecological environment quality. Using ecological environment quality datasets from 2001 to 2021, along with Theil-Sen median trend analysis, the Mann-Kendall test, the Hurst index, and a geographical detector, this study systematically revealed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of ecological environment quality in Henan Province. The results showed that 1) during the study period, the average ecological environment quality of the province was 0.46, showing an overall upward trend with fluctuations. The ecological environment quality was moderate in most areas. The ecological environment quality in Funiu and Dabie Mountains continued to be at a level higher than good, the ecological environment quality in southern Zhumadian, Nanyang, and Xinyang gradually changed from poor to moderate, while the ecological environment quality in northern Luoyang and Zhengzhou changed from moderate to poor. 2) From the perspective of the change trend, the majority of the study area remained relatively stable, while 19.58% exhibited improvement trends, and 16.69% showed degradation trends. 3) In the future, 49.25% of the regions might experience ecological improvement, whereas 50.75% might face the risk of ecological degradation. 4) Gross primary productivity and land use were the main factors affecting the ecological environment quality of the study area, and their interactions with factors such as GDP, precipitation, temperature, population, elevation, and slope significantly enhanced the explanatory power of spatial variation. The results provide a scientific foundation for ecological environmental protection in Henan Province.

Key words: Henan Province, ecological environment quality, spatio-temporal evolution characteristics, driving factor, geographical detector

摘要：

河南省作为黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展战略的核心区域，同时承担着南水北调中线工程水源地的重要使命，在国家生态安全格局中具有重要地位，研究其生态环境质量的演变规律及驱动机制具有重要意义。该研究基于2001－2021年生态环境质量数据集，综合运用Theil-Sen median趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验、Hurst指数及地理探测器等方法，系统揭示了河南省生态环境质量的时空演变规律及驱动机制。 结果表明：1）研究期间全省生态环境质量均值为0.46，整体呈波动上升趋势。大部分区域生态环境质量处于中等水平，伏牛山、大别山一带持续保持在良以上，驻马店南部、南阳和信阳由较差逐渐转为中等，洛阳北部和郑州则由中等变为较差；2）变化趋势上，大部分区域处于相对稳定状态，19.58%的区域呈改善趋势，16.69%的区域呈退化趋势；3）未来预计有49.25%的区域生态环境有望改善，而50.75%的区域可能面临生态环境退化风险；4）总初级生产力和土地利用在生态环境质量的空间分异中起主导作用，其与国内生产总值、降水、温度、人口、高程、坡度等因子的交互作用增强了空间分异的解释力。该研究为河南省生态环境保护提供科学依据。

关键词: 河南省, 生态环境质量, 时空演变特征, 驱动因素, 地理探测器