Abstract:

Investigating the impact mechanisms of landscape pattern changes on regional carbon storage is of great significance for optimizing landscape structure, enhancing ecosystem carbon sink capacity, and ensuring regional ecological and food security. This study focuses on the black soil region of the Northeast, analyzing the characteristics of landscape pattern changes and carbon storage evolution from 1990 to 2020. The trends of landscape patterns and carbon storage under three scenarios (natural development, ecological protection and food production increase) for 2050 were simulated using the PLUS-InVEST model. The results show that: 1) From 1990 to 2020, the landscape in the study area was dominated by cropland, forestland, and grassland, accounting for more than 87.61% of the total. The area of cropland and artificial surfaces continued to increase, while grassland area decreased at an accelerating rate. 2) From 2020 to 2050, under the natural development scenario, the areas of cropland and forestland increased significantly, while grassland and bare land areas decreased. Under the ecological protection scenario, forestland area expanded substantially, whereas artificial surfaces and grassland areas diminished. The food production increase scenario was characterized by a sharp surge in cropland. 3) From 1990 to 2020, carbon storage exhibited a spatial distribution pattern of “high in the east and low in the west, high in mountainous areas and low in plains,” with a declining trend year by year. The cumulative total reduction reached 479.6 Tg. Carbon storage was primarily contributed by forestland and wetland, with high-carbon-density areas mainly consisting of forestland and wetland, while low-value areas were predominantly cropland and grassland. 4) From 2020 to 2050, under the natural development and ecological protection scenarios, carbon storage increased significantly by 38.0 Tg and 197.4 Tg, respectively. In contrast, under the food production increase scenario, carbon storage decreased markedly by 261.0 Tg due to the increased probability of land conversion from forestland, wetland, and grassland to cropland. The findings of this study provide a scientific basis and decision-making support for future landscape planning and ecological protection strategies in the black soil region of Northeast, promoting the sustainable management of ecosystem services.

Key words: landscape pattern, carbon storage, Northeast Black Soil Region, PLUS-InVEST model, multi-scenario simulation

摘要：

探究景观格局变化对区域碳储量的影响机制，对优化景观结构、提升生态系统碳汇能力、保障区域生态安全与粮食安全具有重要意义。以东北黑土区为研究对象，分析1990－2020年其景观格局变化及碳储量演变特征，并运用PLUS-InVEST模型，模拟2050年自由发展、生态保护和粮食增产等3种情景下的景观格局与碳储量变化趋势。结果表明，1）1990－2020年，研究区景观以耕地、林地和草地为主，占比达87.6%以上；耕地和人工表面面积持续增加，草地面积加速减少。2）2020－2050年，自由发展情景下耕地和林地面积增长明显，草地和裸地面积减少；生态保护情景下林地面积大幅增加，人工表面和草地面积减少；粮食增产情景下则以耕地激增为主。3）1990－2020年，碳储量呈“东高西低、山地高平原低”的分布格局和逐年减少的变化趋势，其总量累积减少479.6 Tg。碳储量以林地和湿地为主，高碳密度区主要由林地和湿地构成，低值区域则以耕地和草地为主。4）2020－2050年，自由发展和生态保护情景下，碳储量可能分别增加38.0、197.4 Tg，而粮食增产情景下，由于林地、湿地和草地向耕地的转移概率增加，碳储量可能减少261.0 Tg。该研究结果可为东北黑土区未来景观格局规划和生态保护策略的制定提供科学依据和决策支持，推动生态系统服务功能的可持续管理。

关键词: 景观格局, 碳储量, 东北黑土区, PLUS-InVEST模型, 多情景模拟