Relationship of Chlorophyll A and Water Quality Factors in Poyang Lake Based on GAM Model

doi:10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2021.08.018

Ecology and Environment ›› 2021, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (8): 1716-1723.DOI: 10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2021.08.018

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Relationship of Chlorophyll A and Water Quality Factors in Poyang Lake Based on GAM Model

YUAN Weihao¹^,²(), WANG Hua¹^,²^,^*(), XIA Yubao¹^,², ZENG Yichuan¹^,², DENG Yanqing³, LI Yuanyuan¹^,², ZHANG Xinyue¹^,²

1. College of Environment, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
2. Key Laboratory of Integrated Regulation and Resource Development on Shallow Lake of Ministry of Education, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
3. Jiangxi Hydrological Bureau, Nanchang 330000, China

Received:2021-05-05 Online:2021-08-18 Published:2021-11-03
Contact: WANG Hua

基于GAM模型的鄱阳湖叶绿素a与水质因子相关性分析

袁伟皓¹^,²(), 王华¹^,²^,^*(), 夏玉宝¹^,², 曾一川¹^,², 邓燕青³, 李媛媛¹^,², 张心悦¹^,²

1.河海大学环境学院,江苏南京 210098
2.河海大学浅水湖泊综合治理与资源开发教育部重点实验室,江苏南京 210098
3.江西省水文局,江西南昌 330000

通讯作者: 王华
作者简介:袁伟皓（1996年生）,男,硕士研究生,研究方向为水污染控制、水环境保护与数值模拟。E-mail: 656074873@qq.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金面上项目(51779075);江西省水利科技项目(KT201623)

Abstract

Abstract:

In recent years, with the rapid development of the social economy, the eutrophication level of the Poyang Lake Basin has been increasing annually. As an important indicator of algae, chlorophyll a (Chl-a) is a critical embodiment of water eutrophication, and thus it is necessary to explore the restrictive water quality indexes affecting the Chl-a change. In this study, the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of each index were analyzed, based on the continuous monitoring data of Chl-a and other water quality indexes (water temperature (WT), transparency (SD), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), ammonia nitrogen (NH₃-N), and permanganate index (COD_Mn)) at three typical sites of Poyang Lake (Banghu, Duchang, and Sheshan) from January 2016 to December 2020. Moreover, the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was applied to analyze the complex relationship between environmental factors and Chl-a. The main restrictive water quality indexes and dominant influence factors at different sites (regions) of Poyang Lake were displayed and the corresponding possible effective measures were discussed, which could support the long-term eutrophication control and scientific management of Poyang Lake. The results demonstrated the significant spatial differences in the relationship between Chl-a and water quality indexes in Poyang Lake. The GAM analysis showed that Chl-a had a nonlinear relationship with TN and COD_Mn in Banghu. TN had a stronger nonlinear influence ability, and the relationship between Chl-a and TN was more complex in Banghu. In Duchang, a strong and complex nonlinear relationship between Chl-a and SD was displayed. In Sheshan, Chl-a also had a strong nonlinear relationship with TN and COD_Mn, while the influence of COD_Mn was more significant. The model deviance explained (D-E) of Chl-a and corresponding water quality factors at the three research sites were 52.3%, 45.1%, and 71.0%, respectively. The identification of key water quality indexes and dominant possible factors of Chl-a in Poyang Lake provided an important theoretical and practical basis for the sustainable development of “a clear lake” and the water environment in Poyang Lake.

Key words: Poyang Lake, GAM model, Chlorophyll a, water quality factor, nutrient, correlation analysis

摘要：

随着社会经济的快速发展,近年来鄱阳湖流域富营养化水平呈逐年上升趋势。叶绿素a（Chl-a）是藻类重要的表征指标,也是水体富营养化程度的一个重要体现,探求影响Chl-a含量变化的主要限制性水质指标尤为重要。基于鄱阳湖2016年1月—2020年12月的鄱阳湖3个典型点位（蚌湖、都昌和蛇山）的Chl-a及其他水质因子（水温 (WT)、透明度 (SD)、总氮 (TN)、总磷 (TP)、氨氮 (NH₃-N)和高锰酸盐指数 (COD_Mn)）的连续监测数据,对各项指标进行了时空异质性分析。进一步地,采用广义加性模型（GAM）对各环境因子与Chl-a的复杂关系进行了分析,给出了鄱阳湖不同点位（区域）的主要限制性水质指标与主要的可能因素,并探讨了相应的可能有效解决措施,为鄱阳湖长远的富营养化防控和有效科学的管理提供了依据。研究表明：鄱阳湖Chl-a与水质因子的关系存在较为显著的空间差异,蚌湖点位Chl-a与TN和COD_Mn存在非线性关系,TN的非线性影响能力更强,Chl-a与TN的关系更为复杂,TN的影响也更为显著;都昌点位Chl-a与SD呈现较强且复杂的非线性关系;蛇山点位Chl-a与TN和COD_Mn存在较强非线性关系,其中以COD_Mn的影响能力更为显著;3个研究点位Chl-a含量与对应水质因子的模型解释率分别为52.3%、45.1%和71.0%。鄱阳湖Chl-a含量的关键性水质指标与主要的可能因素的判别,对于永葆鄱阳湖“一湖清水”和水环境永续可持续发展具有重要理论和实践意义。

关键词: 鄱阳湖, GAM模型, 叶绿素a, 水质因子, 营养盐, 相关性分析

CLC Number:

X524

YUAN Weihao, WANG Hua, XIA Yubao, ZENG Yichuan, DENG Yanqing, LI Yuanyuan, ZHANG Xinyue. Relationship of Chlorophyll A and Water Quality Factors in Poyang Lake Based on GAM Model[J]. Ecology and Environment, 2021, 30(8): 1716-1723.

袁伟皓, 王华, 夏玉宝, 曾一川, 邓燕青, 李媛媛, 张心悦. 基于GAM模型的鄱阳湖叶绿素a与水质因子相关性分析[J]. 生态环境学报, 2021, 30(8): 1716-1723.

Figures/Tables 6

Fig. 1 Variation of Chl-a concentration at the research sites

Fig. 2 Variation of environmental factors at the research sites

Fig. 3 The relationship between TN, CODMn and Chl-a in Banghu

Table 1 Analysis results of GAM model

水质因子 Water quality factor	edf	P	D-E/%
SD	5.698	0.000915***	45.1
TN	2.048	0.00201***	24.7

Fig. 4 The relationship between SD and Chl-a in Duchang

Fig. 5 The relationship between TN, CODMn and Chl-a in Sheshan

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Relationship of Chlorophyll A and Water Quality Factors in Poyang Lake Based on GAM Model

基于GAM模型的鄱阳湖叶绿素a与水质因子相关性分析

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