Abstract:

A series of severe challenges is currently impacting the sustainable development of human society with unprecedented intensity. Issues such as frequent abnormal climate events, ecosystem degradation, and natural resource depletion have not only caused serious damage to the ecological environment but have also triggered a range of socio-economic problems, including public health crises, declines in agricultural production, and infrastructure demage. Based on this situation, China has initiated a new low-carbon green development model aimed at mitigating ecological environment deterioration and resource scarcity, and promoting coordinated economic, social, and environmental development. However, there is a significant economic imbalance among provinces in China, with different provinces playing distinct roles in their economic development. Therefore, adopting a one-size-fits-all “equal distribution” approach to the allocation of energy conservation and emission reduction tasks in the context of green development reform cannot accommodate the actual conditions and development needs of different regions. To advance the implementation of the green development strategy in a more scientific and rational manner, accurately grasping the green development potential of each province has become a critical issue that needs to be addressed urgently to provide a solid foundation for formulating differentiated energy conservation and emission reduction plans. In light of this, this study employs a multi-dimensional assessment approach using the Entropy Weight (EW) Method, Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC) Method, and Benefit of the Doubt (BoD) Method to evaluate green development potential at the provincial level. By conducting an in-depth analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and evolution patterns of China’s green development potential from 2001 to 2021, this study explores the feasibility of coordinated green development among regions, aiming to provide a more scientific and comprehensive reference for green development potential assessment and policy formulation from the perspective of complex systems. The research findings are as follows: 1) China’s green development potential exhibits a distinct “high in the south, low in the north” distribution pattern. The southern region, with its favorable natural conditions, sound industrial base, and proactive policy orientation, demonstrates outstanding green development potential and serves as a crucial strategic support area for China’s green development. In contrast, the northern region generally has lower green development potential. Additionally, the southwest and southeast regions show significant agglomeration effects over multiple years, whereas the central and northern regions urgently require strengthened policy support and resource allocations. Nevertheless, as the green development strategy has been deeply implemented, the development gap between regions has gradually narrowed, indicating that China has achieved tangible results in green development results. 2) A comparison of the results from the three evaluation methods reveals that the EW Method emphasizes holistic assessment but has relatively low dynamic sensitivity; the CRITIC Method can effectively reveal the imbalances among indicators, providing strong support for detailed analysis of assessment results; and the BoD Method highlights significant agglomeration differences among regions, facilitating an in-depth understanding of the spatial pattern of regional green development. This demonstrates that each evaluation method has unique strengths and weaknesses in assessing the potential for green development. Therefore, in subsequent research, the BoD Method can be prioritized as the core approach to analyze the convergence dynamics of China’s green development potential in depth and accurately discern coordinated development trends. The EW and CRITIC methods can be used as supplementary tools to fully exploit their potential advantages, thereby constructing a more comprehensive and multidimensional analytical perspective for green development research. 3) The assessment results from all three methods indicate that during the implementation of the green development strategy, the number of provinces with high green development potential significantly increased, and the center of gravity of green development potential was concentrated near Nanzhao County in Henan Province, highlighting the strategic importance of this area in terms of green development potential. Simultaneously, the average centers and migration trajectories determined by the three methods did not coincide and exhibited irregular and dynamic changes. This suggests that differences in the indicator weights and calculation logics used by different methods lead to discrepancies in determining the location and direction of the movement of the center of gravity of green development potential. Therefore, the approximate results of the standard deviational ellipse should be used as a macro-level guide to explore the common characteristics of green development potential in the central, eastern, and southern regions, providing theoretical support for coordinated regional green development in the future. 4) When formulating green development policies in the future, it is essential to adhere to national uniform standards and requirements to ensure that all regions do not deviate from the overall national development plan to promote green development. Simultaneously, it is crucial to fully consider the special circumstances and green development potential of different regions and industries and adopt tailored, and differentiated approaches. Therefore, a flexible integration of multiple evaluation methods should be employed to accurately capture regional differences and dynamic changes, providing a scientific basis for formulating differentiated green development policies for different regions based on factors such as carbon reduction potential, resource endowments, and industrial structures. Specifically, in the southern and eastern regions, efforts should be made to continuously strengthen ecological protection, accelerate the development and utilization of clean energy, and vigorously promote industrial structure optimization and innovation in energy consumption models. The central region should increase investment in carbon reduction technologies and policies, fully leverage its geographical advantages and industrial foundation, and strive to become a key pillar of China’s national green development policy. Differentiated green development policies should be formulated for the northeast and northwest regions based on their specific conditions to fully tap into their regional characteristics and potential. Ultimately, in the policy formulation process, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the impacts of differences in evaluation methods, continuously track the dynamic changes in the center of gravity of green development potential, and strengthen interregional collaboration and information sharing. This will enable the scientific and flexible adjustment of green development strategies, ensure the precise and efficient implementation of green development policies, and facilitate China’s successful achievement of its green development goals.

Key words: potential for green development, entropy weight method, CRITIC, BoD, “Double Carbon”

摘要： 不同方法在评价绿色发展潜力时各具优势，为科学制定精准、有效的绿色发展政策提供重要支撑。运用熵权法、CRITIC法及BoD法对省域绿色发展潜力展开多维评估，分析2001－2021年中国绿色发展潜力的时空分布特征及演变规律，旨在为中国推进生态系统恢复与绿色发展转型提供数据支撑与决策参考。结果表明：中国绿色发展潜力展现出“南高北低”的分布特征，西南、东南地区在不同年份集聚效应明显，中部、北部地区亟须强化政策扶持与资源倾斜；熵权法强调整体性且动态敏感性低，CRITIC法能有效揭示指标间的不均衡性，BoD法突出地区的显著集聚差异，说明不同方法在评价时各具优势，需要根据不同场景综合多种方法进行考量；3种评价方法的评价结果均表明高潜力省份数量显著增加，且重心聚焦于河南省南召县附近，迁移轨迹呈现不规则态势；未来灵活融合多元方法，精准捕捉区域差异与动态演变，能够为不同区域围绕降碳潜力、资源禀赋、产业结构等制定差异化绿色发展政策提供依据。

关键词: 绿色发展潜力, 熵权法, CRITIC法, BoD法, “双碳”