陕西省新型城镇化与生态环境耦合关系及情景预测

doi:10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2024.12.005

生态环境学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (12): 1874-1881.DOI: 10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2024.12.005

陕西省新型城镇化与生态环境耦合关系及情景预测

耿雅妮^*(), 吴韬, 姜培钊, 张腾飞

宝鸡文理学院陕西省灾害监测与机理模拟重点实验室，陕西宝鸡 721013

收稿日期:2024-05-28 出版日期:2024-12-18 发布日期:2024-12-31
通讯作者: *
作者简介:耿雅妮（1977年生），女，副教授，硕士，主要研究方向区域可持续发展与生态环境评价。E-mail: gyn1977@126.com
基金资助:
陕西省社科界重大理论与现实问题研究项目(2020Z042);宝鸡文理学院校级研究生创新科研项目(YJSCX24YB55)

Coupling Relationship between New Urbanization and Ecological Environment in Shaanxi Province and Scenario Prediction

GENG Yani^*(), WU Tao, JIANG Peizhao, ZHANG Tengfei

Baoji University of Arts and Sciences, Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Disaster Monitoring and Mechanism Simulation, Baoji 721013, P. R. China

Received:2024-05-28 Online:2024-12-18 Published:2024-12-31

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

研究陕西省新型城镇化与生态环境耦合关系及情景预测，对陕西省新型城镇化与生态环境耦合协调具有重要的参考意义。以陕西省为研究区域，将社会面板数据与遥感数据结合，构建新型城镇化与生态环境评价指标体系，采用耦合协调度模型分析陕西省2010－2020年新型城镇化与生态环境耦合关系，运用空间自相关模型探究陕西省新型城镇化与生态环境耦合协调的空间分异规律，创新性地利用系统动力学模型探究陕西省新型城镇化与生态环境耦合协调水平的最佳发展路径。结果表明，1）陕西省耦合协调度在2010－2020年呈上升态势，经历了由濒临失调向中级耦合协调的发展过程；2020年，西安耦合协调度最高，为0.771，商洛耦合协调度最低，为0.571；新型城镇化滞后是制约新型城镇化与生态环境同步发展的重要原因。2）2010－2020年，全局Moran’s I指数由−0.204变为−0.369，p值为0.076，耦合协调度在全局自相关上存在较显著的空间负相关关系；局部空间自相关呈离散分布态势，其中HL型地区以西安、铜川为代表，LH型地区以商洛、渭南、汉中为代表。3）协同发展型是陕西省最优的发展方案。当常住人口增长率控制在0.006，GDP增长率控制在0.055，建成区增长率控制在0.062，一般财政支出控制在0.320，用水率减少率控制在−0.025，维持现有耕地规模，环保支出系数提升至0.043时，在此情景下到2025年耦合协调度将为0.883。

关键词: 新型城镇化, 生态环境, 耦合关系, 空间自相关, 系统动力学模型, 陕西省

Abstract:

New urbanization and the ecological environment are two systems that affect each other. If not coordinated, they can cause a series of ecological and environmental problems. Research on the coupling relationship between new urbanization and the eco-environment in Shaanxi Province and scenario prediction has important reference significance for the coupling coordination between these factors. Using Shaanxi Province as the study area, social panel data and remote sensing data were combined to establish an evaluation index system for new urbanization and the ecological environment. The coupling coordination degree model was used to analyze the coupling relationship between new urbanization and the ecological environment in Shaanxi Province from 2010 to 2020, and the spatial autocorrelation model was used to explore the spatial differentiation law of the coupling coordination between these factors. This study innovatively uses a system dynamics model to explore the optimal development path of the coupling coordination level between new urbanization and the ecological environment in Shaanxi Province. The results showed that 1) the coupling coordination degree of Shaanxi Province is on the rise from 2010 to 2020, and it has experienced a development process from near imbalance to intermediate coupling coordination. In 2020, Xi’an had the highest coupling coordination degree (0.771), and Shangluo had the lowest coupling coordination degree (0.571). The lag in new urbanization is an important factor restricting the synchronous development of new urbanization and the ecological environment. 2) From 2010 to 2020, the global Moran’s I index changed from −0.204 to 0.369, and the coupling coordination degree had a significant negative spatial correlation with global autocorrelation. Local spatial autocorrelation showed a discrete distribution trend, in which the HL-type region was represented by Xi’an and Tongchuan, and the LH-type region was represented by Shangluo, Weinan, and Hanzhong. 3) Collaborative development is the best development plan for the Shaanxi Province. When the growth rate of permanent resident population is controlled at 0.006, the GDP growth rate is controlled at 0.055, the growth rate of built-up area is controlled at 0.062, the general fiscal expenditure is controlled at 0.320, the reduction rate of water consumption is controlled at −0.025, the current cultivated land scale is maintained, and the environmental protection expenditure coefficient is increased to 0.043, In this scenario, the coupling coordination degree will be 0.883 by 2025. The research results provide a reference for the coordination between new urbanization and the ecological environment in Shaanxi Province and other cities.

Key words: new urbanization, ecological environment, coupling relationship, spatial autocorrelation, system dynamics model, Shaanxi

中图分类号:

X22
F299.27

耿雅妮, 吴韬, 姜培钊, 张腾飞. 陕西省新型城镇化与生态环境耦合关系及情景预测[J]. 生态环境学报, 2024, 33(12): 1874-1881.

GENG Yani, WU Tao, JIANG Peizhao, ZHANG Tengfei. Coupling Relationship between New Urbanization and Ecological Environment in Shaanxi Province and Scenario Prediction[J]. Ecology and Environment, 2024, 33(12): 1874-1881.

图/表 9

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耦合协调度	类别	耦合协调度	类别
0.9<D≤1	高级协调	0.4<D≤0.5	濒临失调
0.8<D≤0.9	良好协调	0.3<D≤0.4	轻度失调
0.7<D≤0.8	中级协调	0.2<D≤0.3	中度失调
0.6<D≤0.7	初级协调	0.1<D≤0.2	严重失调
0.5<D≤0.6	勉强协调	0<D≤0.1	极度失调

耦合协调度	类别	耦合协调度	类别
0.9<D≤1	高级协调	0.4<D≤0.5	濒临失调
0.8<D≤0.9	良好协调	0.3<D≤0.4	轻度失调
0.7<D≤0.8	中级协调	0.2<D≤0.3	中度失调
0.6<D≤0.7	初级协调	0.1<D≤0.2	严重失调
0.5<D≤0.6	勉强协调	0<D≤0.1	极度失调

系统	子系统	具体指标	综合权重法
新型城镇化	人口城镇化	城镇化率/%	0.0315
		人口密度/(person∙km⁻²)	0.2192
		二三产业从业人员比重/%	0.0036
	经济城镇化	二三产业占GDP比重/%	0.0166
		人均GDP/元	0.0610
		人均社会消费品零售额/元	0.0870
		人均财政支出/元	0.0472
	社会城镇化	城镇居民人均可支配收入/元	0.0325
		每万人中小学生数/人	0.0157
		每万人卫生技术人员数/人	0.0378
		供水普及率/%	0.0118
		供气普及率/%	0.0149
	空间城镇化	人均道路面积/m²	0.0416
		建成区面积占比/%	0.2274
		每万人建成区面积/m²	0.0950
		夜间灯光强度/(cd·m⁻²)	0.0962
	生态城镇化	建成区绿化覆盖率/%	0.0127
		人均公园绿地面积/(m²∙person⁻¹)	0.0230
		建成区绿地率/%	0.0156
生态环境	压力	人均工业废水排放量/10³ t	0.0325
		人均工业SO₂排放量/10³ t	0.0677
		人均一般工业固废排放量/10³ t	0.0423
		人均用水量/(m³∙person⁻¹)	0.0516
		化肥使用强度/(t∙hm⁻²)	0.0396
		PM_2.5质量浓度/(μg∙m⁻³)	0.0383
	状态	空气优良率/%	0.0298
		人均水资源量/(m³∙person⁻¹)	0.2095
		人均耕地面积/(hm²∙person⁻¹)	0.0784
		降水/mm	0.0502
		NDVI	0.0226
	响应	一般工业固废综合利用率/%	0.0502
		污水处理率/%	0.0094
		垃圾无害化处理率/%	0.0149
		工业污染物治理投资占GDP比重/%	0.1124
		年末植树造林率/%	0.0770
		自然保护区面积比重/%	0.0736

系统	子系统	具体指标	综合权重法
新型城镇化	人口城镇化	城镇化率/%	0.0315
		人口密度/(person∙km⁻²)	0.2192
		二三产业从业人员比重/%	0.0036
	经济城镇化	二三产业占GDP比重/%	0.0166
		人均GDP/元	0.0610
		人均社会消费品零售额/元	0.0870
		人均财政支出/元	0.0472
	社会城镇化	城镇居民人均可支配收入/元	0.0325
		每万人中小学生数/人	0.0157
		每万人卫生技术人员数/人	0.0378
		供水普及率/%	0.0118
		供气普及率/%	0.0149
	空间城镇化	人均道路面积/m²	0.0416
		建成区面积占比/%	0.2274
		每万人建成区面积/m²	0.0950
		夜间灯光强度/(cd·m⁻²)	0.0962
	生态城镇化	建成区绿化覆盖率/%	0.0127
		人均公园绿地面积/(m²∙person⁻¹)	0.0230
		建成区绿地率/%	0.0156
生态环境	压力	人均工业废水排放量/10³ t	0.0325
		人均工业SO₂排放量/10³ t	0.0677
		人均一般工业固废排放量/10³ t	0.0423
		人均用水量/(m³∙person⁻¹)	0.0516
		化肥使用强度/(t∙hm⁻²)	0.0396
		PM_2.5质量浓度/(μg∙m⁻³)	0.0383
	状态	空气优良率/%	0.0298
		人均水资源量/(m³∙person⁻¹)	0.2095
		人均耕地面积/(hm²∙person⁻¹)	0.0784
		降水/mm	0.0502
		NDVI	0.0226
	响应	一般工业固废综合利用率/%	0.0502
		污水处理率/%	0.0094
		垃圾无害化处理率/%	0.0149
		工业污染物治理投资占GDP比重/%	0.1124
		年末植树造林率/%	0.0770
		自然保护区面积比重/%	0.0736

年份	西安	铜川	宝鸡	咸阳	渭南	延安	汉中	榆林	安康	商洛
2010	0.671	0.640	0.563	0.564	0.547	0.532	0.501	0.507	0.507	0.486
2011	0.687	0.628	0.594	0.583	0.559	0.550	0.533	0.519	0.528	0.481
2012	0.695	0.638	0.601	0.593	0.564	0.560	0.534	0.546	0.547	0.470
2013	0.704	0.648	0.600	0.589	0.558	0.589	0.542	0.567	0.545	0.485
2014	0.725	0.678	0.602	0.601	0.560	0.593	0.546	0.585	0.572	0.481
2015	0.738	0.664	0.608	0.609	0.581	0.585	0.547	0.590	0.585	0.495
2016	0.735	0.667	0.609	0.616	0.593	0.591	0.544	0.593	0.586	0.500
2017	0.760	0.666	0.628	0.613	0.607	0.605	0.579	0.603	0.618	0.537
2018	0.752	0.676	0.625	0.605	0.603	0.624	0.600	0.625	0.605	0.532
2019	0.781	0.693	0.638	0.621	0.628	0.632	0.623	0.658	0.622	0.560
2020	0.771	0.697	0.642	0.618	0.634	0.625	0.635	0.629	0.628	0.571

陕西省新型城镇化与生态环境耦合关系及情景预测

Coupling Relationship between New Urbanization and Ecological Environment in Shaanxi Province and Scenario Prediction

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年份	Moran’s I	z值	p值
2010	−0.204	−0.565	0.572
2014	−0.300	−1.170	0.240
2017	−0.357	−1.709	0.087
2020	−0.369	−1.776	0.076

情景	类型	具体策略
情景1	自然发展型	该情景按照现有发展模式发展，模型中所有参数以现有状态保持不变，同时该情景作为其他4种情景对照
情景2	快速发展型	将常住人口增长率设定为1.88%、GDP增长率为23.66%、用水量变化率为5.27%、常用耕地面积变化率为−0.17%、财政支出增长率为3.6%、环保支出系数设为2.83%
情景3	生态导向型	将常住人口增长率设定为0.21%、GDP增长率为1.51%、用水量变化率为−2.15%、环保支出系数为4.29%、财政支出增长率为3.6%、常用耕地面积保持不变
情景4	社会导向型	该情景提升城镇居民生活水平、基础设施和公共事业服务置于优先位置，故将财政支出增长率设定为检验期最大值，为32.01%；其余控制变量延续现有模式
情景5	协同发展型	将常住人口增长率设定为0.58%、建成区面积增长率为6.18%、GDP增长率为5.5%、财政支出增长率为32.01%、用水量变化率为−2.15%、环保支出系数为4.29%、常用耕地面积保持不变

年份	自然发展型	快速发展型	生态导向型	社会导向型	协同发展型
2021	0.792	0.722	0.815	0.713	0.696
2022	0.802	0.746	0.823	0.750	0.741
2023	0.812	0.768	0.832	0.791	0.787
2024	0.822	0.787	0.840	0.834	0.834
2025	0.832	0.788	0.849	0.88	0.883

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