黄土高原城市工业污水排放脱钩分析及驱动效应分解--以陕西省为例

doi:10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2023.02.015

生态环境学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (2): 351-360.DOI: 10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2023.02.015

黄土高原城市工业污水排放脱钩分析及驱动效应分解--以陕西省为例

雷社平¹(), 樊艳翔¹^,^*(), 解建仓²

1.西北工业大学公共政策与管理学院，陕西西安 710072
2.西安理工大学水利水电学院，陕西西安 710048

收稿日期:2022-11-25 出版日期:2023-02-18 发布日期:2023-05-11
通讯作者: *樊艳翔（1999年生），男（傈僳族），硕士研究生，研究方向为环境资源与经济、环境科学。E-mail: 2848323256@qq.com
作者简介:雷社平（1963年生），男，副教授，博士，硕士研究生导师，研究方向为环境资源与经济、环境科学。E-mail: leimansh@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(51679188)

Analysis of Urban Industrial Sewage Discharge Decoupling and Driving Effect Decomposition on the Loess Plateau: A Case Study of Shaanxi Province

LEI ShePing¹(), FAN YanXiang¹^,^*(), XIE JianCang²

1. School of Public Policy and Management, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi’an 710072, P. R. China
2. School of Water Resources and Hydropower, Xi'an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, P. R. China

Received:2022-11-25 Online:2023-02-18 Published:2023-05-11

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

黄土高原地处中国干旱与半干旱地区，水资源稀缺、生态脆弱。随着城市工业的不断发展，其面临着工业发展与水资源消耗、污水排放等多层矛盾，深入探究黄土高原城市工业发展与污水排放的关系以及污水排放的驱动效应具有研究意义。以陕西省为研究对象，使用Tapio脱钩模型对其10个地级市的工业污水排放脱钩状态进行测算分析，并进一步使用LMDI模型对其工业污水排放的驱动效应进行分解。研究发现，（1）各地工业污水排放变化存在一定的差异。2011-2014年除西安、咸阳、宝鸡、汉中出现下降趋势以外，其他地区均呈现增长趋势，而渭南增速最快为79.71%，其次是商洛、安康、榆林、铜川、延安。2014-2017年除榆林以外，其余各地区均是下降态势，且榆林在该时间段增速最快，达118.89%。2017-2020年，除咸阳、铜川呈现增长趋势以外，其余各地区均为负增长，但相对而言铜川地区增速不大，为1.45%；咸阳增速较大，为162.43%。（2）陕南工业发展与污水排放的脱钩状态总体较为理想，关中地区西安市脱钩状态较理想，其余各地区仍有较大的改进空间；陕北地区两市总体而言，脱钩状态不理想，工业发展模式以低效扩张与粗放扩张为主；近年来铜川、咸阳、延安、榆林等4个地区出现向非理想化负脱钩状态演变的情况。（3）陕西省污水排放驱动效应可分解为工业用水结构强度效应、工业用水强度效应、工业规模效应与人口规模效应4个效应。而总体来看，从地区与时间两个维度对工业污水排放的驱动效应进行分解的测算结果基本一致。

关键词: 陕西省, 工业发展, 污水排放, Tapio模型, LMDI模型

Abstract:

The Loess Plateau is located in the arid and semi-arid regions of China, with scarce water resources and fragile ecology. With the continuous development of urban industry, it faces multiple contradictions such as industrial development, water resource consumption, sewage discharge, etc. It is of research significance to explore the relationship between urban industrial development and sewage discharge and the driving effect of sewage discharge in the Loess Plateau. This paper takes Shaanxi Province as the research object, uses Tapio decoupling model to calculate and analyze the decoupling status of industrial sewage discharge in 10 prefecture-level cities, and further uses LMDI model to decompose the driving effect of industrial sewage discharge. The study found that: (1) There are certain differences in the changes of industrial sewage discharge in different regions. In 2011-2014, except Xi’an, Xianyang, Baoji and Hanzhong, other regions showed a trend of growth, while Weinan grew at the fastest rate of 79.71%, followed by Shangluo, Ankang, Yulin, Tongchuan and Yan’an. From 2014 to 2017, except Yulin, all other regions were in a downward trend, and Yulin experienced the fastest growth rate of 118.89% during this period. From 2017 to 2020, except for Xianyang and Tongchuan, the other regions showed negative growth, but the growth rate in Tongchuan was relatively small at 1.45%, while the growth rate in Xianyang was relatively large at 162.43%. (2) The decoupling status of industrial development and sewage discharge in southern Shaanxi is generally ideal, and the decoupling status of Xi’an in Guanzhong region is ideal, and there is still large room for improvement in other regions; Generally speaking, the decoupling status of the two cities in northern Shaanxi is not ideal, and the industrial development mode is dominated by inefficient expansion and extensive expansion; In recent years, Tongchuan, Xianyang, Yan'an and Yulin have evolved to non-ideal negative decoupling state. (3) The driving effect of sewage discharge in Shaanxi Province can be divided into four effects: industrial water structure intensity effect, industrial water intensity effect, industrial scale effect and population scale effect. On the whole, the calculation results of the decomposition of the driving effect of industrial sewage discharge from the two dimensions of region and time are basically consistent. This paper explores the decoupling status and driving effect of industrial sewage discharge in cities on the Loess Plateau, which is closely combined with the current reality of cities on the Loess Plateau to enrich and deepen the current research field.

Key words: Shaanxi Province, industrial development, sewage discharge, Tapio model, LMDI model

中图分类号:

X703

雷社平, 樊艳翔, 解建仓. 黄土高原城市工业污水排放脱钩分析及驱动效应分解--以陕西省为例[J]. 生态环境学报, 2023, 32(2): 351-360.

LEI ShePing, FAN YanXiang, XIE JianCang. Analysis of Urban Industrial Sewage Discharge Decoupling and Driving Effect Decomposition on the Loess Plateau: A Case Study of Shaanxi Province[J]. Ecology and Environment, 2023, 32(2): 351-360.

图/表 7

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脱钩状态	ΔW	ΔE	Q	发展模式	集约程度
强脱钩	-	＋	<0	挖潜发展型	最集约
弱脱钩	＋	＋	0≤Q<0.8	集约扩张型	较集约
扩张连结	＋	＋	0.8≤Q≤1.2	低效扩张型	较粗放
扩张负脱钩	＋	＋	>1.2	低效扩张型	较粗放
弱脱钩	＋	＋	0≤Q<0.8	发展迟滞型	特殊型
衰退脱钩	-	-	>1.2
衰退连结	-	-	0.8≤Q≤1.2
弱负脱钩	-	-	0≤Q<0.8
强负脱钩	＋	-	<0	粗放扩张型	最粗放

脱钩状态	ΔW	ΔE	Q	发展模式	集约程度
强脱钩	-	＋	<0	挖潜发展型	最集约
弱脱钩	＋	＋	0≤Q<0.8	集约扩张型	较集约
扩张连结	＋	＋	0.8≤Q≤1.2	低效扩张型	较粗放
扩张负脱钩	＋	＋	>1.2	低效扩张型	较粗放
弱脱钩	＋	＋	0≤Q<0.8	发展迟滞型	特殊型
衰退脱钩	-	-	>1.2
衰退连结	-	-	0.8≤Q≤1.2
弱负脱钩	-	-	0≤Q<0.8
强负脱钩	＋	-	<0	粗放扩张型	最粗放

地区	年份
地区	2011-2012	2012-2013	2013-2014	2014-2015	2015-2016	2016-2017	2017-2018	2018-2019	2019-2020
西安市	强脱钩	强脱钩	强脱钩	衰退脱钩	强脱钩	弱脱钩	强脱钩	强脱钩	强脱钩
铜川市	扩张负脱钩	强脱钩	衰退连结	弱负脱钩	衰退连结	强脱钩	扩张负脱钩	扩张负脱钩	强负脱钩
宝鸡市	弱脱钩	强脱钩	扩张连结	扩张负脱钩	强脱钩	强脱钩	强脱钩	扩张负脱钩	强负脱钩
咸阳市	强脱钩	强脱钩	强脱钩	扩张负脱钩	强脱钩	衰退脱钩	扩张负脱钩	强负脱钩	强负脱钩
渭南市	弱脱钩	扩张负脱钩	扩张负脱钩	强负脱钩	衰退脱钩	强脱钩	弱脱钩	强脱钩	衰退脱钩
延安市	扩张负脱钩	强脱钩	强脱钩	强负脱钩	强负脱钩	强脱钩	强脱钩	扩张负脱钩	强负脱钩
汉中市	强脱钩	弱脱钩	弱脱钩	衰退脱钩	强脱钩	强脱钩	强脱钩	强脱钩	衰退脱钩
榆林市	强脱钩	扩张负脱钩	扩张负脱钩	强负脱钩	强脱钩	扩张负脱钩	强脱钩	扩张负脱钩	强负脱钩
安康市	弱脱钩	弱脱钩	弱脱钩	弱脱钩	强脱钩	强脱钩	弱脱钩	强脱钩	衰退脱钩
商洛市	扩张连结	弱脱钩	扩张连结	强脱钩	强脱钩	强脱钩	扩张连结	强脱钩	衰退脱钩

地区	年份
地区	2011-2012	2012-2013	2013-2014	2014-2015	2015-2016	2016-2017	2017-2018	2018-2019	2019-2020
西安市	强脱钩	强脱钩	强脱钩	衰退脱钩	强脱钩	弱脱钩	强脱钩	强脱钩	强脱钩
铜川市	扩张负脱钩	强脱钩	衰退连结	弱负脱钩	衰退连结	强脱钩	扩张负脱钩	扩张负脱钩	强负脱钩
宝鸡市	弱脱钩	强脱钩	扩张连结	扩张负脱钩	强脱钩	强脱钩	强脱钩	扩张负脱钩	强负脱钩
咸阳市	强脱钩	强脱钩	强脱钩	扩张负脱钩	强脱钩	衰退脱钩	扩张负脱钩	强负脱钩	强负脱钩
渭南市	弱脱钩	扩张负脱钩	扩张负脱钩	强负脱钩	衰退脱钩	强脱钩	弱脱钩	强脱钩	衰退脱钩
延安市	扩张负脱钩	强脱钩	强脱钩	强负脱钩	强负脱钩	强脱钩	强脱钩	扩张负脱钩	强负脱钩
汉中市	强脱钩	弱脱钩	弱脱钩	衰退脱钩	强脱钩	强脱钩	强脱钩	强脱钩	衰退脱钩
榆林市	强脱钩	扩张负脱钩	扩张负脱钩	强负脱钩	强脱钩	扩张负脱钩	强脱钩	扩张负脱钩	强负脱钩
安康市	弱脱钩	弱脱钩	弱脱钩	弱脱钩	强脱钩	强脱钩	弱脱钩	强脱钩	衰退脱钩
商洛市	扩张连结	弱脱钩	扩张连结	强脱钩	强脱钩	强脱钩	扩张连结	强脱钩	衰退脱钩

地区	效应类型
地区	工业用水结构强度效应	工业用水强度效应	工业规模效应	人口规模效应
西安市	104.572	251.449	-93.896	20.167
铜川市	-21.995	32.602	-15.657	21.141
宝鸡市	-349.087	576.982	-24.809	-2.910
咸阳市	41.227	362.573	-63.621	32.582
渭南市	-585.932	743.515	-24.140	68.332
延安市	292.400	-24.521	-139.632	55.659
汉中市	-285.265	539.909	-29.731	-2.966
榆林市	1085.157	713.856	-26.110	2.055
安康市	-30.427	79.909	1.856	0.452
商洛市	126.218	214.609	-8.515	3.274

黄土高原城市工业污水排放脱钩分析及驱动效应分解--以陕西省为例

Analysis of Urban Industrial Sewage Discharge Decoupling and Driving Effect Decomposition on the Loess Plateau: A Case Study of Shaanxi Province

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年份	效应类型
年份	工业用水结构强度效应	工业用水强度效应	工业规模效应	人口规模效应
2011-2012	213.000	-13.721	-420.855	390.271
2012-2013	58.936	160.137	185.451	-215.591
2013-2014	389.214	-242.510	6.546	-1.558
2014-2015	-124.048	237.321	-20.204	-3.575
2015-2016	-1919.139	2675.227	-69.180	2.863
2016-2017	527.066	184.282	71.949	43.837
2017-2018	929.466	463.933	-171.672	-9.613
2018-2019	160.041	12.795	-0.209	-4.018
2019-2020	142.331	13.420	-6.082	-4.828