基于PLUS-InVEST模型的东北黑土区景观格局与碳储量变化多情景模拟

doi:10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2026.02.002

生态环境学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (2): 178-189.DOI: 10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2026.02.002

基于PLUS-InVEST模型的东北黑土区景观格局与碳储量变化多情景模拟

王悦¹^,²(), 于福东³, 张月¹, 相恒星²^,^*(), 焉恒琦⁴, 毛德华²

1.吉林农业大学资源与环境学院，吉林长春 130118
2.中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所，吉林长春 130102
3.中农阳光（吉林省）大数据集团有限公司，吉林长春 130015
4.吉林省地震局，吉林长春 130117

收稿日期:2025-06-30 修回日期:2025-11-21 接受日期:2025-12-10 出版日期:2026-02-18 发布日期:2026-02-09
通讯作者: 相恒星
作者简介:王悦（1994年生），女（回族），硕士研究生，研究方向为景观变化及遥感监测。E-mail: 15202159619@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(U23A2008);第八批吉林省青年科技人才托举工程(QT202417)

Multi-scenario Simulation of Landscape Pattern and Carbon Storage Changes in Northeast Black Soil Region Based on the PLUS-InVEST Model

WANG Yue¹^,²(), YU Fudong³, ZHANG Yue¹, XIANG Hengxing²^,^*(), YAN Hengqi⁴, MAO Dehua²

1. College of Resources and Environment, Jilin Agricultural University, Changchun 130118, P. R. China
2. Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, P. R. China
3. Zhongnong Sunshine Big Data Group Co., Ltd., Changchun 130015, P. R. China
4. Jilin Earthquake Agency, Changchun 130117, P. R. China

Received:2025-06-30 Revised:2025-11-21 Accepted:2025-12-10 Online:2026-02-18 Published:2026-02-09

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

探究景观格局变化对区域碳储量的影响机制，对优化景观结构、提升生态系统碳汇能力、保障区域生态安全与粮食安全具有重要意义。以东北黑土区为研究对象，分析1990－2020年其景观格局变化及碳储量演变特征，并运用PLUS-InVEST模型，模拟2050年自由发展、生态保护和粮食增产等3种情景下的景观格局与碳储量变化趋势。结果表明，1）1990－2020年，研究区景观以耕地、林地和草地为主，占比达87.6%以上；耕地和人工表面面积持续增加，草地面积加速减少。2）2020－2050年，自由发展情景下耕地和林地面积增长明显，草地和裸地面积减少；生态保护情景下林地面积大幅增加，人工表面和草地面积减少；粮食增产情景下则以耕地激增为主。3）1990－2020年，碳储量呈“东高西低、山地高平原低”的分布格局和逐年减少的变化趋势，其总量累积减少479.6 Tg。碳储量以林地和湿地为主，高碳密度区主要由林地和湿地构成，低值区域则以耕地和草地为主。4）2020－2050年，自由发展和生态保护情景下，碳储量可能分别增加38.0、197.4 Tg，而粮食增产情景下，由于林地、湿地和草地向耕地的转移概率增加，碳储量可能减少261.0 Tg。该研究结果可为东北黑土区未来景观格局规划和生态保护策略的制定提供科学依据和决策支持，推动生态系统服务功能的可持续管理。

关键词: 景观格局, 碳储量, 东北黑土区, PLUS-InVEST模型, 多情景模拟

Abstract:

Investigating the impact mechanisms of landscape pattern changes on regional carbon storage is of great significance for optimizing landscape structure, enhancing ecosystem carbon sink capacity, and ensuring regional ecological and food security. This study focuses on the black soil region of the Northeast, analyzing the characteristics of landscape pattern changes and carbon storage evolution from 1990 to 2020. The trends of landscape patterns and carbon storage under three scenarios (natural development, ecological protection and food production increase) for 2050 were simulated using the PLUS-InVEST model. The results show that: 1) From 1990 to 2020, the landscape in the study area was dominated by cropland, forestland, and grassland, accounting for more than 87.61% of the total. The area of cropland and artificial surfaces continued to increase, while grassland area decreased at an accelerating rate. 2) From 2020 to 2050, under the natural development scenario, the areas of cropland and forestland increased significantly, while grassland and bare land areas decreased. Under the ecological protection scenario, forestland area expanded substantially, whereas artificial surfaces and grassland areas diminished. The food production increase scenario was characterized by a sharp surge in cropland. 3) From 1990 to 2020, carbon storage exhibited a spatial distribution pattern of “high in the east and low in the west, high in mountainous areas and low in plains,” with a declining trend year by year. The cumulative total reduction reached 479.6 Tg. Carbon storage was primarily contributed by forestland and wetland, with high-carbon-density areas mainly consisting of forestland and wetland, while low-value areas were predominantly cropland and grassland. 4) From 2020 to 2050, under the natural development and ecological protection scenarios, carbon storage increased significantly by 38.0 Tg and 197.4 Tg, respectively. In contrast, under the food production increase scenario, carbon storage decreased markedly by 261.0 Tg due to the increased probability of land conversion from forestland, wetland, and grassland to cropland. The findings of this study provide a scientific basis and decision-making support for future landscape planning and ecological protection strategies in the black soil region of Northeast, promoting the sustainable management of ecosystem services.

Key words: landscape pattern, carbon storage, Northeast Black Soil Region, PLUS-InVEST model, multi-scenario simulation

中图分类号:

P901
X144

王悦, 于福东, 张月, 相恒星, 焉恒琦, 毛德华. 基于PLUS-InVEST模型的东北黑土区景观格局与碳储量变化多情景模拟[J]. 生态环境学报, 2026, 35(2): 178-189.

WANG Yue, YU Fudong, ZHANG Yue, XIANG Hengxing, YAN Hengqi, MAO Dehua. Multi-scenario Simulation of Landscape Pattern and Carbon Storage Changes in Northeast Black Soil Region Based on the PLUS-InVEST Model[J]. Ecology and Environmental Sciences, 2026, 35(2): 178-189.

图/表 13

图1 研究区行政区划图本图基于审图号为GS（2019）1823号的标准地图制作；底图边界无修改

Figure 1 Administrative map of the studied area

表1 所需数据来源

Table 1 Required data sources

数据	类型	分辨率/m	数据来源
景观数据	栅格	30	国家地球系统科学数据中心（http://www.geodata.cn/）
高程	栅格	500	地理空间数据云平台（https://www.gscloud.cn）
坡度	栅格	500	根据高程数据提取
年降水量	栅格	1000	国家地球系统科学数据中心（http://www.geodata.cn/）
年平均温度	栅格	1000	国家地球系统科学数据中心（http://www.geodata.cn/）
植被类型	栅格	1000	国家地球系统科学数据中心（http://www.geodata.cn/）
土壤类型	栅格	1000	国家地球系统科学数据中心（http://www.geodata.cn/）
距离河流距离	栅格	500	欧氏距离工具
距离铁路距离	栅格	500	欧氏距离工具

表2 东北黑土区不同景观类型的碳密度

Table 2 Carbon density distribution across landscape types in Northeast Black Soil Region

景观类型	碳密度/(t∙hm⁻²)
景观类型	地上生物碳	地下生物碳	土壤有机碳	死亡有机碳
林地	82.25	41.12	171.89	2.25
草地	19.78	16.26	48.76	18.56
耕地	4.70	0.00	33.46	0.00
湿地	18.22	8.60	248.74	1.41
人工表面	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
裸地	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

表3 多情景景观转移成本矩阵

Table 3 Transition cost matrices for multi-scenario landscape changes

景观类型	自由发展情景						生态保护情景						粮食增产情景
景观类型	L₁	L₂	L₃	L₄	L₅	L₆	L₁	L₂	L₃	L₄	L₅	L₆	L₁	L₂	L₃	L₄	L₅	L₆
L₁	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1
L₂	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1
L₃	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
L₄	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1
L₅	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
L₆	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

表4 邻域权重参数

Table 4 Neighborhood weighting parameter

景观类型	权重
景观类型	林地	草地	耕地	湿地	人工表面	裸地
自由发展情景	0.91	0.00	0.83	0.70	1.00	0.70
生态保护情景	1.00	0.36	0.74	0.73	0.00	0.54
粮食增产情景	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.13	0.06	0.23

图2 1990－2020年东北黑土区景观分布图

Figure 2 Distribution of landscapes in the Northeast Black Soil Region 1990?2020

图3 1990－2020年东北黑土区景观转移占比

Figure 3 Proportion of landscape transition in the Northeast Black Soil Region from 1990 to 2020

图4 1990、2000、2010和2020年东北黑土区景观转移面积

Figure 4 Landscape transfer area in the Northeast Black Soil Region, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020

图5 2050年多情景下东北黑土区景观模拟结果

Figure 5 Landscape simulation results of Northeast Black Soil Region under multiple scenarios in 2050

图6 1990－2020年东北黑土区碳储量空间分布

Figure 6 Spatial distribution of carbon stock in the Northeast Black Soil Region 1990?2020

图7 1990－2020年东北黑土区主要景观类型碳储量

Figure 7 Major carbon storage in the black soil region of Northeast 1990?2020

图8 不同情景下2050年东北黑土区碳储量空间分布

Figure 8 Spatial distribution of carbon stocks in the Northeast Black Earth Region in 2050 under different scenarios

图9 不同情景下2050年东北黑土区主要碳储量

Figure 9 Main carbon stock in the Northeast Black Soil Region in 2050 under different scenarios

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基于PLUS-InVEST模型的东北黑土区景观格局与碳储量变化多情景模拟

Multi-scenario Simulation of Landscape Pattern and Carbon Storage Changes in Northeast Black Soil Region Based on the PLUS-InVEST Model

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