Response Mechanism of Gross Primary Productivity to Climatic Drought in the Yellow River Source region

doi:10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2026.03.006

Ecology and Environmental Sciences ›› 2026, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (3): 393-402.DOI: 10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2026.03.006

• Research Article [Ecology] • Previous Articles Next Articles

Response Mechanism of Gross Primary Productivity to Climatic Drought in the Yellow River Source region

CHENG Wenjie¹^,²(), NI Yongxin²^,³^,^*(), LÜ Xizhi², MA Li², ZHANG Qiufen², WANG Jianwei², ZHANG Hengshuo², DENG Wenyan¹^,²

1. College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, P. R. China
2. Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research, Yellow River Conservancy Commission/Henan Key Laboratory of Yellow River Basin Ecological Environment Protection and Restoration, Zhengzhou 450003, P. R. China
3. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering/Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210098, P. R. China

Received:2025-08-22 Revised:2026-01-20 Accepted:2026-01-25 Online:2026-03-18 Published:2026-03-13

黄河源区植被总生产力对气候干旱的响应

程文杰¹^,²(), 倪用鑫²^,³^,^*(), 吕锡芝², 马力², 张秋芬², 王建伟², 张恒硕², 邓文彦¹^,²

1.河海大学水利水电学院，江苏南京 210098
2.黄河水利委员会黄河水利科学研究院/河南省黄河流域生态环境保护与修复重点实验室，河南郑州 450003
3.南京水利科学研究院/水灾害防御全国重点实验室，江苏南京 210098

通讯作者: *E-mail: niyongxin@126.com
作者简介:程文杰（2001年生），男，硕士研究生，研究方向为生态水文与水土保持。E-mail: chengwj0112@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(U2243214);国家自然科学基金项目(52209023);国家自然科学基金项目(52322903);“十四五”国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3201700);水灾害防御全国重点实验室“一带一路”水与可持续发展科技基金项目(2024nkms04)

Abstract

Abstract:

Drought, as a key climatic factor influencing the terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle, plays a significant regulatory role in vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP). The response mechanism of vegetation productivity to drought in the Yellow River Source Region, a crucial water conservation area in the Yellow River Basin, remains unclear. Therefore, based on Bayesian theory, Copula joint distribution, and SHAP interpretability methods, this study systematically evaluated the spatiotemporal impacts of drought on vegetation GPP and its driving mechanisms. The results indicated that: 1) from 2002 to 2022, vegetation GPP in the Yellow River Source Region generally exhibited an increasing trend, with a spatial gradient decreasing from the southeast to the northwest; 2) the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) showed a positive correlation with GPP at the pixel scale, with a maximum correlation coefficient of 0.23; 3) the lag time of vegetation response to climatic drought displayed spatial heterogeneity, with shorter lags in the southern and southeastern regions and longer lags in the northern and northwestern regions; 4) the risk of vegetation loss in the western part of the source region was higher than in the eastern part, and the probability of vegetation loss increased with drought severity, though the rate of increase was relatively limited; 5) temperature was the primary driver of GPP variation, coordinating with other environmental factors to influence vegetation productivity. This study reveals the spatiotemporal differences in vegetation productivity response to climatic drought in the Yellow River Source Region, providing a scientific basis for adaptive management of alpine ecosystems.

Key words: gross primary productivity, climatic drought, response mechanism, Yellow River source region

摘要：

干旱作为影响陆地生态系统碳循环的关键气候因子，对植被总初级生产力（GPP）具有重要调控作用。黄河源区作为黄河流域重要的水源涵养区，其植被生产力对干旱的响应机制尚不明确。因此，该研究基于贝叶斯理论、Copula联合分布以及SHAP可解释性方法，系统评估了干旱对黄河源区植被总初级生产力的时空影响及其驱动机制，结果表明：1）2002－2022年植被GPP总体上呈上升趋势，空间上表现为东南向西北递减的梯度特征；2）标准化气象干旱指数SPEI与GPP在像元尺度上呈正相关关系，最大相关系数为0.23；3）植被对气候干旱的响应滞后时间存在空间分异，南部及东南部滞后时间较短，北部及西北部滞后时间较长；4）西部植被损失风险高于东部，且植被损失概率随干旱程度增加而升高，但增幅相对有限；5）气温是GPP变化的主要驱动因子，与其他环境因素协调影响植被生产力。该研究揭示了黄河源区植被生产力对气候干旱响应的时空差异，可为高寒生态系统适应性管理提供科学依据。

关键词: 植被总初级生产力, 气候干旱, 响应机制, 黄河源区

CLC Number:

Q948
X173

CHENG Wenjie, NI Yongxin, LÜ Xizhi, MA Li, ZHANG Qiufen, WANG Jianwei, ZHANG Hengshuo, DENG Wenyan. Response Mechanism of Gross Primary Productivity to Climatic Drought in the Yellow River Source region[J]. Ecology and Environmental Sciences, 2026, 35(3): 393-402.

程文杰, 倪用鑫, 吕锡芝, 马力, 张秋芬, 王建伟, 张恒硕, 邓文彦. 黄河源区植被总生产力对气候干旱的响应[J]. 生态环境学报, 2026, 35(3): 393-402.

Figures/Tables 12

References 39

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变化速率（β）	检验统计量（Z）	趋势特征
β>0	\|Z\|>1.96	显著增加
β>0	\|Z\|<1.96	不显著增加
β<0	\|Z\|>1.96	显著减少
β<0	\|Z\|<1.96	不显著减少

变化速率（β）	检验统计量（Z）	趋势特征
β>0	\|Z\|>1.96	显著增加
β>0	\|Z\|<1.96	不显著增加
β<0	\|Z\|>1.96	显著减少
β<0	\|Z\|<1.96	不显著减少

类别	标准化降水蒸散发指数（SPEI）范围
极端干旱	(−, −2.0]
严重干旱	(−2.0, −1.5]
中度干旱	(−1.5, −1.0]
轻度干旱	(−1.0, −0.5]

类别	标准化降水蒸散发指数（SPEI）范围
极端干旱	(−, −2.0]
严重干旱	(−2.0, −1.5]
中度干旱	(−1.5, −1.0]
轻度干旱	(−1.0, −0.5]

参数名称	参数含义	参数候选值	最优参数值
n_estimators	决策树数量	50, 100, 150, 200, 250, 300	300
max_features	最大特征数	0.5, 0.7, 1.0	0.5
max_depth	最大深度	5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, None	5
min_samples_split	最小样本分割数	2, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30	2
min_samples_leaf	最小样本叶子数	1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14	1

Response Mechanism of Gross Primary Productivity to Climatic Drought in the Yellow River Source region

黄河源区植被总生产力对气候干旱的响应

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Figures/Tables 12

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影响因素	不同因素交互作用的SHAP值
影响因素	t	ET	P	R	SPEI1	SPEI3
t	－	2.498	1.817	0.810	0.170	0.681
ET	2.498	－	0.278	0.231	0.144	0.159
P	1.817	0.278	－	0.155	0.267	0.149
R	0.810	0.231	0.155	－	0.039	0.100
SPEI1	0.170	0.144	0.267	0.039	－	0.047
SPEI3	0.681	0.159	0.149	0.100	0.047	－

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[2]	CHEN Tingting, CAI Yiwei, SUN Tong, LI Guiying, AN Taicheng. Response Mechanism of Bacteria in Bioaerosol under the Stress of Volatile Organic Sulfur Compounds [J]. Ecology and Environmental Sciences, 2025, 34(10): 1588-1597.