Abstract:

Based on the historical statistical data, the temporal characteristics and influencing factors of sown area variation of a variety of grain crops in Southwest and South China [Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou and Guangdong Provinces, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region (abbreviated in “Guangxi”)] are analyzed. The results show that the grain area of Guangdong, Guangxi and Sichuan has continued to shrink, and compared with the 1950s, has decreased by 62.0%, 13.9% and 36.1% respectively in the past decade. While the grain sown area in Guizhou and Yunnan expand significantly, 41.4% and 49.2% respectively. Secondly, the planting situation of various grain crops are also discussed. In Guangdong, the planting areas of winter wheat, maize and potato show expanding trends. In Guangxi, the sown areas of rice, early rice, winter wheat, millet, sorghum and soybean show first increasing and then decreasing trends, and those of maize and potato fluctuating increase. The winter wheat sown area in Sichuan also shows a first increasing and then decreasing trend, while those of maize, beans and tuber crops are relatively stable. In Guizhou, the sown areas of cereal, rice, maize, early rice, double season late rice and beans remain stable, that of winter wheat increase first and then decrease, while that of sorghum, soybean, tuber crops and potato continually increase. There are little changes in the sown areas of cereal, rice and beans in Yunnan, the double season late rice and winter wheat areas increase first and then decrease, while the sown areas of maize, millet, soybean, tuber crops and potato show a fluctuating increase trend. Except the above crops, the sown areas of other grain crops in every province/ autonomous region show a gradual decreasing trend. Furthermore, the effects of influencing factors on the sown area variation of grain crops are analyzed. Most influencing factors have obvious correlation with the change of sowing area, but specific to province/ autonomous region and crop varieties, the effects of different factors are different. In general, the population size index and several agricultural technical indicators have important impacts on the change of grain crop sowing area in Southwest and South China.

Key words: grain crops, sown area, temporal variation characteristics, socio-economic factors, natural disaster factors, correlation analysis, grey correlation degree

摘要：

利用历史统计资料,以西南和华南5个省份/自治区[四川、云南、贵州、广东省和广西壮族自治区 (简称“广西”)]为代表区,探讨了多种粮食作物播种面积的时序变化特征,并分析了其变化的影响因素。结果表明,广东、广西和四川粮食播种面积逐渐减少,相较上世纪50年代,近10年分别减少了62.0%、13.9%和36.1%,贵州和云南省粮食播种面积则扩大明显,近10年分别扩大了41.4%和49.2%。其次,广东冬小麦、玉米和马铃薯播种面积呈增加趋势;广西稻谷、早稻、冬小麦、谷子、高粱和大豆播种面积呈先增后减趋势,玉米和马铃薯播种面积波动增加;四川冬小麦播种面积也呈先增后减趋势,玉米、豆类和薯类播种面积较为稳定,贵州谷物、稻谷、玉米、早稻、双季晚稻和豆类播种面积保持稳定,冬小麦播种面积呈先增后减趋势,高粱、大豆、薯类和马铃薯播种面积则持续增加,云南谷物、稻谷、豆类播种面积变化不大,双季晚稻和冬小麦播种面积呈先增后减趋势,玉米、谷子、大豆、薯类和马铃薯播种面积总体呈波动增加趋势。除此之外,各省/自治区其他粮食作物品种播种面积则呈逐渐减少趋势。分析了各粮食作物播种面积变化影响因素的效应,发现大多数影响因素与播种面积变化都有显著相关性,但具体到省份/自治区、作物品种,不同的因素效应不同。总体而言,社会经济因素中人口数量指标,以及个别农业技术指标对西南和华南粮食作物播种面积变化有重要影响。

关键词: 粮食作物, 播种面积, 时序变化特征, 社会经济因素, 自然灾害因素, 相关分析, 灰色关联度