Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use Change and Its Eco-environmental Effect in Hainan Island Based on CA-Markov Model

doi:10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2021.07.021

Ecology and Environment ›› 2021, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (7): 1522-1531.DOI: 10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2021.07.021

• Research Articles • Previous Articles Next Articles

Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use Change and Its Eco-environmental Effect in Hainan Island Based on CA-Markov Model

LIU Qiang¹^,²(), YANG Zhongyang³^,⁴, CHEN Yiqing³^,⁴^,^*(), LEI Jinrui³^,⁴, CHEN Zongzhu³^,⁴, CHEN Xiaohua³^,⁴

1. Administration of Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park, Haikou 570100, China
2. East China Inventory and Planning Institute, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Hangzhou 310019, China
3. Hainan Academy of Forestry (Hainan Academy of Mangrove), Haikou 571100, China
4. Key Laboratory of Tropical Forestry Resources Monitoring and Application of Hainan Province, Haikou 571100, China

Received:2021-02-24 Online:2021-07-18 Published:2021-10-09
Contact: CHEN Yiqing

基于CA-Markov多情景模拟的海南岛土地利用变化及其生态环境效应

刘强¹^,²(), 杨众养³^,⁴, 陈毅青³^,⁴^,^*(), 雷金睿³^,⁴, 陈宗铸³^,⁴, 陈小花³^,⁴

1.海南热带雨林国家公园管理局,海南海口 570100
2.国家林业和草原局华东调查规划设计院,浙江杭州 310019
3.海南省林业科学研究院（海南省红树林研究院）,海南海口 571100
4.海南省热带林业资源监测与应用重点实验室,海南海口 571100

通讯作者: 陈毅青
作者简介:刘强（1969年生）,男,高级工程师,研究方向为森林生态与资源监测管理。E-mail: 2568060444@qq.com
基金资助:
海南省财政科技计划项目(jcxk202003);海南省财政科技计划项目(jscx202024)

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the land use data of Hainan Island in 2010 and 2020, the spatial distribution patterns of land use in 2030 and 2040 were predicted by using CA-Markov model, and the land use change and eco-environmental effects in Hainan Island in 2010?2040 were quantitatively analyzed. The results showed that, (1) from 2010 to 2020, forest land was the main type of land use in Hainan Island, accounting for more than 62% of the land area, followed by cultivated land. During this period, forest land, cultivated land and water area were converted into construction land, and the area of construction land increased by 483.55 km², with a growth rate of 53.27%. (2) CA-Markov model was used to simulate the three scenarios, and the area of construction land in Hainan Island showed a significant increase in 2030 and 2040. The cultivated land area was the largest under the cultivated land protection scenario simulation, while the area of forest land and water area increased under the ecological protection scenario simulation. (3) The eco-environmental quality in Hainan Island showed a stepped spatial distribution pattern, namely the central part was high and the surrounding area was low. In 2010?2040, the eco-environmental quality in Hainan Island decreased gradually, from 0.6064 in 2010 to 0.5878 in 2040. Among the three simulation scenarios, the eco-environmental quality in Hainan Island was the highest under the ecological protection scenario, followed by cultivated land protection scenario, and the worst under the baseline scenario. And (4) from 2010 to 2040, the dominant factor causing the deterioration of the eco-environmental quality in Hainan Island was that the conversion of forest land to construction land. The conversion of cultivated land to forest land was the main type of land use change leading to the improvement of the eco-environmental quality in the future, and the ecological contribution rate was more than 70%. In general, the deterioration trend of the eco-environmental quality in Hainan Island was greater than the improvement trend of the eco-environmental quality.

Key words: ecological environment quality, land use transformation, CA-Markov, simulation scenario, spatiotemporal variation

摘要：

以海南岛为研究区域,基于2010年和2020年两期土地利用数据,利用 CA-Markov模型预测了3种模拟情景下2030年和2040年土地利用空间分布格局,定量分析了海南岛2010—2040年土地利用变化及其生态环境效应。结果表明,（1）2010—2020年间,海南岛土地利用类型以林地为主,面积占比达62%以上,其次耕地。该时期土地利用类型转移的主要特征是林地、耕地、水域转为建设用地,建设用地面积增加483.55 km²,增长率高达53.27%。（2）利用CA-Markov模型模拟3种情景下海南岛2030年和2040年的建设用地均呈现较大幅度的增长,其中耕地保护情景模拟下的耕地面积最多,生态保护情景模拟下的林地和水域面积有所增加。（3）海南岛生态环境质量呈现出中部高、四周低的阶梯式空间分布格局,2010—2040年间海南岛生态环境质量逐期降低,由2010年的0.6064下降至2040年的0.5878。在3种模拟情景中,生态保护情景下的海南岛生态环境质量最高,其次是耕地保护情景,基准情景最差。（4）2010—2040年间,林地转为建设用地是导致海南岛生态环境质量恶化的主要类型和主导因素,耕地转为林地则是致使未来生态环境质量改善的主要土地利用变化类型,生态贡献率超过70%。总体而言,海南岛生态环境质量恶化的趋势大于生态环境质量改善的趋势。

关键词: 生态环境质量, 土地利用转型, CA-Markov, 情景模拟, 时空变化

CLC Number:

X144

LIU Qiang, YANG Zhongyang, CHEN Yiqing, LEI Jinrui, CHEN Zongzhu, CHEN Xiaohua. Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use Change and Its Eco-environmental Effect in Hainan Island Based on CA-Markov Model[J]. Ecology and Environment, 2021, 30(7): 1522-1531.

刘强, 杨众养, 陈毅青, 雷金睿, 陈宗铸, 陈小花. 基于CA-Markov多情景模拟的海南岛土地利用变化及其生态环境效应[J]. 生态环境学报, 2021, 30(7): 1522-1531.

Figures/Tables 11

References 26

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一级类型 First class	生态环境质量指数 Eco-environmental quality values	二级类型 Second class	生态环境质量指数 Eco-environmental quality values
耕地 Cropland	0.27	水田 Paddy field	0.30
耕地 Cropland	0.27	旱地 Dry land	0.25
林地 Forestland	0.76	有林地 Forest land	0.95
		灌木林 Shrubbery	0.65
		疏林地 Open forest land	0.45
		其它林地Other forest land	0.40
草地 Grassland	0.70	高覆盖度草地 High coverage grassland	0.75
		中覆盖度草地 Medium coverage grassland	0.45
		低覆盖度草地 Low coverage grassland	0.20
水域 Water land	0.54	河渠 Canal	0.55
		水库坑塘 Reservoir	0.55
		滩涂 Mudflat	0.45
		滩地 Beach land	0.55
建设用地 Built land	0.18	城镇建设用地 Urban construction land	0.20
		农村居民点 Rural residential area	0.20
		其它建设用地 Other construction land	0.15
未利用地Unused land	0.11	沙地 Sandy land	0.01
未利用地Unused land	0.11	沼泽地 Swamp land	0.65

一级类型 First class	生态环境质量指数 Eco-environmental quality values	二级类型 Second class	生态环境质量指数 Eco-environmental quality values
耕地 Cropland	0.27	水田 Paddy field	0.30
耕地 Cropland	0.27	旱地 Dry land	0.25
林地 Forestland	0.76	有林地 Forest land	0.95
		灌木林 Shrubbery	0.65
		疏林地 Open forest land	0.45
		其它林地Other forest land	0.40
草地 Grassland	0.70	高覆盖度草地 High coverage grassland	0.75
		中覆盖度草地 Medium coverage grassland	0.45
		低覆盖度草地 Low coverage grassland	0.20
水域 Water land	0.54	河渠 Canal	0.55
		水库坑塘 Reservoir	0.55
		滩涂 Mudflat	0.45
		滩地 Beach land	0.55
建设用地 Built land	0.18	城镇建设用地 Urban construction land	0.20
		农村居民点 Rural residential area	0.20
		其它建设用地 Other construction land	0.15
未利用地Unused land	0.11	沙地 Sandy land	0.01
未利用地Unused land	0.11	沼泽地 Swamp land	0.65

土地利用类型 Land use types		耕地 Cropland	林地 Forestland	草地 Grassland	水域 Water land	建设用地 Built land	未利用地 Unused land
2010年	面积 Area/ km²	8891.93	21742.29	1135.91	1507.49	907.81	93.54
2010年	比例 Proportion/%	25.94	63.43	3.31	4.40	2.65	0.27
2020年	面积 Area/ km²	8701.35	21465.89	1155.04	1476.57	1391.35	89.45
2020年	比例 Proportion/%	25.38	62.62	3.37	4.31	4.06	0.26
2010—2020年面积变化量 Area change from 2010 to 2020/km²		-190.58	-276.40	19.14	-30.92	483.55	-4.09
2010—2020年面积变化率 Rate of area change from 2010 to 2020/%		-2.14	-1.27	1.68	-2.05	53.27	-4.38

土地利用类型 Land use types		耕地 Cropland	林地 Forestland	草地 Grassland	水域 Water land	建设用地 Built land	未利用地 Unused land
2010年	面积 Area/ km²	8891.93	21742.29	1135.91	1507.49	907.81	93.54
2010年	比例 Proportion/%	25.94	63.43	3.31	4.40	2.65	0.27
2020年	面积 Area/ km²	8701.35	21465.89	1155.04	1476.57	1391.35	89.45
2020年	比例 Proportion/%	25.38	62.62	3.37	4.31	4.06	0.26
2010—2020年面积变化量 Area change from 2010 to 2020/km²		-190.58	-276.40	19.14	-30.92	483.55	-4.09
2010—2020年面积变化率 Rate of area change from 2010 to 2020/%		-2.14	-1.27	1.68	-2.05	53.27	-4.38

2010	2020
2010	耕地 Cropland	林地 Forestland	草地 Grassland	水域 Water land	建设用地 Built land	未利用地 Unused land
耕地 Cropland	8643.83	3.82	3.89	24.16	214.82	1.40
林地 Forestland	17.08	21451.98	12.01	24.99	232.03	3.77
草地 Grassland	0.39	0.26	1111.12	6.69	17.38	0.00
水域 Water land	28.57	2.52	4.40	1417.15	41.62	4.58
建设用地 Built land	11.43	6.11	14.74	2.87	872.16	0.00
未利用地 Unused land	0.00	0.33	8.77	0.18	4.55	79.70

Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use Change and Its Eco-environmental Effect in Hainan Island Based on CA-Markov Model

基于CA-Markov多情景模拟的海南岛土地利用变化及其生态环境效应

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模拟情景 Scene simulation	耕地 Cropland	林地 Forestland	草地 Grassland	水域 Water land	建设用地 Built land	未利用地 Unused land
2030年基准情景 Baseline scenario in 2030	8510.53	21188.63	1172.72	1449.80	1849.70	85.38
2030年耕地保护情景 Scenarios for farmland protection in 2030	8731.80	21186.66	1169.16	1432.34	1652.67	84.13
2030年生态保护情景 Scenarios for ecological protection in 2030	8469.63	21447.53	1158.57	1486.66	1616.77	77.62
2040年基准情景 Baseline scenario in 2040	8258.93	20719.62	1191.32	1437.10	2563.24	86.57
2040年耕地保护情景 Scenarios for farmland protection in 2040	8549.66	20714.36	1184.38	1432.32	2291.39	84.67
2040年生态保护情景 Scenarios for ecological protection in 2040	8219.46	21191.45	1162.59	1459.46	2148.71	75.11

等级 Level	取值范围 Value range	2010	2020	2030			2040
等级 Level	取值范围 Value range	2010	2020	基准情景 Baseline scenario	耕地保护情景 Scenarios for farmland protection	生态保护情景Scenarios for ecological protection	基准情景 Baseline scenario	耕地保护情景Scenarios for farmland protection	生态保护情景 Scenarios for ecological protection
Ⅰ	0.00‒0.20	2.95	4.32	5.63	5.05	4.94	7.69	6.89	6.46
Ⅱ	0.20‒0.30	25.94	25.38	24.84	25.49	24.72	24.11	24.96	23.99
Ⅲ	0.30‒0.55	22.70	22.30	21.92	21.86	22.34	21.44	21.41	21.95
Ⅳ	0.55‒0.75	10.01	9.95	9.88	9.87	9.96	9.76	9.74	9.87
Ⅴ	0.75‒1.00	38.40	38.05	37.72	37.72	38.03	37.01	37.01	37.72

变化期 Changing period	致生态环境质量改善 Improved eco-environmental quality			致生态环境质量恶化 Deteriorated eco-environmental quality
变化期 Changing period	主要土地利用变化类型 Major land use transformation types	生态贡献率 Ecological contribution rate	占贡献率的百分比Proportion/%	主要土地利用变化类型 Major land use transformation types	生态贡献率 Ecological contribution rate	占贡献率的百分比Proportion/%
2010—2020	建设用地-草地 Built land-Grassland	0.000222	25.08	林地-建设用地 Forestland-Built land	0.003943	65.64
	耕地-水域 Cropland-Water land	0.000190	21.39	耕地-建设用地 Cropland-Built land	0.000537	8.94
	未利用地-草地 Unused land-Grassland	0.000152	17.11	水域-建设用地 Water land-Built land	0.000431	7.17
	建设用地-林地 Built land-Forestland	0.000104	11.70	草地-建设用地 Grassland-Built land	0.000262	4.37
	耕地-林地 Cropland-Forestland	0.000055	6.24	林地-耕地 Forestland-Cropland	0.000248	4.12
总计 Total		0.000723	81.52		0.005421	90.24
2020—2040年基准情景 Baseline scenario in 2020‒2040	耕地-林地 Cropland-Forestland	0.002279	70.71	林地-建设用地 Forestland-Built land	0.010341	61.44
	未利用地-草地 Unused land-Grassland	0.000253	7.85	林地-耕地 Forestland-Cropland	0.002819	16.75
	耕地-草地 Cropland-Grassland	0.000217	6.73	耕地-建设用地 Cropland-Built land	0.001215	7.22
	水域-林地 Water land-Forestland	0.000120	3.71	水域-建设用地 Water land-Built land	0.000809	4.81
	耕地-水域 Cropland-Water land	0.000110	3.42	林地-水域 Forestland-Water land	0.000500	2.97
总计 Total		0.002979	92.42		0.015684	93.19
2020—2040年耕地保护情景 Scenarios for farmland protection in 2020‒2040	耕地-林地 Cropland-Forestland	0.002239	72.53	林地-建设用地 Forestland-Built land	0.010282	63.43
	未利用地-草地 Unused land-Grassland	0.000253	8.20	林地-耕地 Forestland-Cropland	0.002906	17.93
	耕地-草地 Cropland-Grassland	0.000140	4.53	水域-建设用地 Water land-Built land	0.000804	4.96
	水域-林地 Water land-Forestland	0.000119	3.87	耕地-建设用地 Cropland-Built land	0.000548	3.38
	耕地-水域 Cropland-Water land	0.000090	2.92	林地-水域 Forestland-Water land	0.000499	3.08
总计Total		0.002841	92.05		0.015039	92.79
2020—2040年生态保护情景 Scenarios for ecological protection in 2020‒2040	耕地-林地 Cropland-Forestland	0.002426	70.76	林地-建设用地 Forestland-Built land	0.004024	43.30
	未利用地-草地 Unused land-Grassland	0.000264	7.71	林地-耕地 Forestland-Cropland	0.002512	27.03
	耕地-草地 Cropland-Grassland	0.000216	6.30	耕地-建设用地 Cropland-Built land	0.001207	12.99
	水域-林地 Water land-Forestland	0.000128	3.74	水域-建设用地 Water land-Built land	0.000413	4.45
	耕地-水域 Cropland-Water land	0.000125	3.64	草地-建设用地 Grassland-Built land	0.000400	4.31
总计Total		0.003159	92.15		0.008557	92.07

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