关键词: “三生”空间, 适宜性评价, 可持续性评价, 多尺度融合, 伊犁河流域

Abstract:

The optimization of the Production-Living-Ecological Space (Three-Space) Spatial Pattern has become a critical topic in the study of national land spatial planning and sustainable development. The Ili River Basin, as an important ecological security barrier and an agricultural and pastoral production base in northwestern China, serves as a strategic region for maintaining social stability in Xinjiang and ensuring long-term security along the border. However, in the context of rapid urbanization and industrial restructuring, the basin faces a governance dilemma involving multiple overlapping objectives, including ecological protection, resource development, and livelihood security. As an essential framework in land spatial planning, Three-Space can effectively reveal the evolving patterns of human-land relationships. Existing studies have largely focused on urban agglomerations or economically developed core areas, while relatively little attention has been paid to border regions like the Ili River Basin, where ecological and production functions are equally important and living patterns and ethnic cultures are highly diverse. To address this gap, this study constructs a Three-Space Spatial Suitability Evaluation System at the grid scale and combines a coupled coordination model with the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model to systematically analyze the evolution of the Ili River Basin’s spatial patterns from 2000 to 2020, and to simulate and optimize the spatial pattern in 2030. The aim is to provide a scientific basis for spatial governance and national land planning in complex watershed units of arid western regions. In terms of data, the study integrates multi-source remote sensing images and statistical data for 2000, 2010, and 2020, together with land use data, population and economic data, and ecological monitoring data. After preprocessing steps such as projection unification, clipping, and reclassification, a grid-scale spatial analysis database was established. Methodologically, the study first identifies and classifies the Three-Space through land use classification and extraction of relevant indicators. A suitability evaluation indicator system, incorporating natural conditions, locational accessibility, and socioeconomic factors, is then constructed. Indicator weights are determined using a combination of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and entropy methods, producing suitability patterns for production, living, and ecological spaces. Furthermore, the coupled coordination model is employed to analyze the relationship between Three-Space Spatial Suitability and regional sustainable development, with the latter measured using an administrative unit-scale socioeconomic indicator system. Finally, the FLUS model is applied to predict future spatial patterns. The model is parameterized with a conversion cost matrix, neighborhood factors, and development scenario constraints based on changes from 2010 to 2020, simulating the 2030 Three-Space Spatial Distribution under a scenario emphasizing both ecological protection and food security. Further zoning identifies stable and expansion areas, which inform specific optimization pathways. The results indicate that: 1) Between 2000 and 2020, production and living spaces in the Ili River Basin increased from 13.05% and 1.14% to 16.78% and 1.39%, respectively, while ecological space decreased from 85.81% to 81.83%, showing a steady expansion of human activity space and a gradual compression of ecological space, with expansion primarily concentrated in river valley plains and areas adjacent to transportation corridors. 2) Suitability evaluation results show that production suitability slightly improved over the same period, mainly due to reductions in moderately and low-suitability areas. High-suitability production spaces are located in water-rich river valley agricultural regions with favorable transportation; high-suitability living spaces are concentrated around county central towns; high-suitability ecological spaces cover mountains, grasslands, and key water conservation areas. 3) Coupled coordination analysis indicates improved coordination between Three-Space and regional sustainable development from 2000 to 2020. Ili City, as the main urban area, exhibits the highest coupling coordination level, reaching a “well-coordinated” status, while other counties achieve “basically coordinated” or “barely coordinated” levels, suggesting a generally stable human-land relationship with localized conflicts persisting. 4) FLUS simulation results show that under a development scenario balancing ecological protection and food security, ecological space remains dominant in 2030, while production and living spaces moderately expand in localized regions, resulting in a more rational spatial pattern compared with 2020. Further zoning shows that expansion areas of production and living spaces are adjacent to corresponding stable areas, consistent with the intensive expansion requirements of planning documents. Based on these results and local planning documents, this study proposes a zoning approach for optimizing the Three-Space Spatial Pattern in the Ili River Basin: stable areas focus on protection to maintain existing patterns and functional advantages, while expansion areas require site-specific development and guidance. The study innovatively integrates grid-scale suitability evaluation, administrative unit-scale regional sustainable development indicators, and the FLUS model to propose a comprehensive technical framework for diagnosing and optimizing Three-Space Spatial Patterns. It also explores indicator localization and multi-scale integration, and introduces a “stable area—expansion area” zoning optimization pathway, providing a reference for spatial optimization in ecologically dominant basins. Nevertheless, the study has limitations. First, the overall planning refers to Ili Prefecture-level documents, which differ in spatial boundaries and scale from the Ili River Basin; even with multi-scale data integration, deviations may exist. Second, zoning discussions mainly focus on the division between stable and expansion areas, with insufficient attention to intra-functional land use changes within expansion areas. Future research could refine this aspect to enhance the specificity and operability of optimization pathways. Overall, the study provides scientific support for land spatial planning in the Ili River Basin and offers a case reference for optimizing Three-Space Spatial Patterns in complex arid-region watersheds.

Key words: production-piving-ecological (PLE) space, suitability assessment, sustainability assessment, multi-scale integration, Ili river basin