Abstract:

In the context of the proposed establishment of a national park in the Qinghai Lake Basin, exploring the spatial differentiation of ecosystem services and their drivers is important for ecological environmental protection, restoration, and regional sustainable development. Taking Qinghai Lake Basin as the research object, this study analyzes the dynamic changes of ecosystem services based on land use changes from 2010 to 2020, explores the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem services, and introduces a geoprobe model to explore the driving factors of spatial differentiation of ecosystem services. The results showed that 1) from 2010 to 2020, the change in grassland as the main land type was small, and the increase in water area was the largest, mainly due to the transfer of unutilized land and grassland. From 2010 to 2020, ESV showed a weak increasing trend, with the total ecosystem service value (ESV) increasing from 135 billion yuan to 137 billion yuan, an increase of 1.48%. Among them, the contribution of the watershed was the largest (more than 1.04×10² billion yuan), followed by grassland (more than 27.4 billion yuan). The ecological service function was dominated by regulating services, contributing to more than 112 billion yuan. 2) The ESV in the Qinghai Lake Basin showed a spatial pattern of decrease from the lake body to the surrounding area, and exhibited significant elevation dependence. The ESV in the basin has a significant positive spatial correlation (Moran's I is positive) and aggregation distribution; high-high value and low-low value aggregation areas are the main spatial aggregation areas, with the high-high value aggregation areas mainly aggregated in the low-altitude areas, and the low-low-value aggregation areas mainly distributed in the high-altitude areas. The high-high value and low-low value aggregation areas showed an increasing trend from 2010 to 2020, but the increase in the low-low value aggregation areas was extremely small. 3) The spatial heterogeneity of ESV is the result of the synergistic effect of natural geographic and socioeconomic factors, with natural factors having a stronger influence than social factors, and elevation and climatic factors being the main drivers of spatial heterogeneity of ESV. The results indicate that in the future, considering the spatial aggregation of ESVs in low-elevation areas, it is still necessary to pay attention to the impacts and trade-offs of human activities and climate change on ESVs, to alleviate human-land conflicts and maintain the sustainable development of the region, and to promote the construction of Qinghai Lake National Park. At the same time, the present study provides a theoretical basis and reference for decision makers to assess the ecological security of ecological barrier areas.

Key words: spatial differentiation, ecosystem service values, driving factors, Qinghai Lake Basin

摘要：

在青海湖流域拟建国家公园的背景下，生态系统服务空间分异及其驱动因素的探析，可以极大的促进生态环境保护与修复政策制定及区域可持续发展。以青海湖流域为研究对象，基于2010-2020年的土地利用变化，分析生态系统服务的动态变化，探讨了生态系统服务的空间异质性，并引入地理探测器模型探究了生态系统服务空间分异的自然和社会经济驱动因素。结果表明，1）2010-2020年草地作为主要地类变化幅度小；水域面积增幅最大，其主要源于未利用地和草地的转入。2010-2020年ESV表现为弱递增趋势，总生态系统服务价值（ESV）由1.35×10³亿元增加到1.37×10³亿元，增加了1.48%；其中，水域贡献率最大（1.04×10³亿元以上），其次是草地（274亿元以上）。生态服务功能以调节服务为主，贡献量达到1.12×10³亿元以上。2）青海湖流域ESV呈现出从湖体向周围递减的空间格局，并表现出显著的高程依赖性；流域ESV存在显著的空间正相关（Moran's I均为正数）和聚集分布；高高值和低低值聚集区为空间上的主要聚集区，高高值聚集区主要聚集在低海拔区，低低值聚集区则主要分布在高海拔区，高高值和低低值聚集区在2010-2020年均呈递增趋势，但低低值聚集区增幅极小。3）ESV空间异质性是自然地理和社会经济因素协同作用的结果，自然因素影响力表现出更高的敏感性，海拔和气候所体现出的空间异质性是ESV的主要驱动因素。低海拔地区ESV空间聚集性等结果表明，今后仍需关注人类活动和气候变化对ESV的影响和权衡，以缓解人地矛盾进而推进青海湖国家公园建设。该研究可为区域生态系统保护和管理奠定科学基础，也可为决策者评估生态屏障区的生态安全提供理论基础和参考。

关键词: 空间分异, 生态系统服务价值, 驱动因素, 青海湖流域