Abstract:

Accurate measurement of ecological and economic (eco-economic) efficiency and clarification of its spatial patterns and evolutionary trends are crucial for achieving a dynamic balance between ecological protection and socio-economic development. Based on the strategic policy of “ecological priority and green development”, this study utilizes the Super-NSBM model, which accounts for feedback characteristics, to measure the eco-economic efficiencies of 29 provincial-level administrative regions (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, Hainan Province, and Tibet Autonomous Region) in China during 2013-2023, emphasizing the importance of ecological subsystems. The spatial patterns and evolutionary trends of eco-economic efficiency in China’s regions were empirically examined using the Dagum Gini coefficient, kernel density estimation, and spatial Markov chain analyses. The study found that the overall eco-economic efficiency of most provinces is ineffective; their ecological subsystems can be further developed; and most provinces have redundant inputs and insufficient outputs in terms of investments in governance and pollution emissions. China’s eco-economic efficiency exhibits a trend of increasing then decreasing, with a spatial characteristic of “central collapse.” Recently, the internal differences in the western region have increased significantly, with provinces such as Qinghai and Ningxia having much higher efficiency values than the other provinces; this phenomenon of “hyper-variable density” has become the main source of overall differences in the western region. During the study period, the degree of polarization of China’s eco-economic efficiency experienced a complex evolutionary trend: first weakening, then strengthening, and then weakening again; however, the overall degree was strengthened. In addition, the level shift of eco-economic efficiency shows stability, with regions with greater deviations from the average efficiency value being more inclined to maintain their original state but with a more pronounced reverse spatial spillover effect on neighboring regions.

Key words: eco-first, eco-economic efficiency, spatiotemporal characteristics, super-NSBM model, spatial Markov chain

摘要：

精确衡量生态经济效率对实现生态环境保护与社会经济发展的动态平衡具有重要意义。基于“生态优先、绿色发展”的战略方针，运用考虑反馈特性的Super-NSBM模型，在突出生态子系统重要性的前提下，测算了中国2013－2023年29个省级行政区（除港澳台、海南省、西藏自治区外）的生态经济效率，并运用Dagum基尼系数、Kernel密度估计、空间Markov链分析等方法实证考察了中国各省域生态经济效率的空间格局及演进趋势。研究发现，1）大部分省份整体生态经济效率处于无效状态；其生态子系统具有较大发展空间，多数省份治理投资与污染排放分别存在投入冗余与产出不足状况。2）中国生态经济效率先升后降，并存在“中部塌陷”的空间特征；近年来，西部地区的内部差异显著增加，其中青海、宁夏等省份效率值远高于其他省域，这种“超变密度”现象成为总体差异的主要来源。3）研究期内，中国生态经济效率的两极分化程度经历了先减弱、后增强再减弱的复杂演变趋势，但总体程度有所强化。4）生态经济效率的水平转移呈现出稳定性，效率值偏离平均水平越大的地区更倾向于保持其原有状态，但对周边地区存在更为明显的反向空间溢出效应。

关键词: 生态优先, 生态经济效率, 时空分异, Super-NSBM模型, 空间Markov链