Abstract:

Climate change poses a formidable global challenge, driving governmental responses to issues such as glacier melting and sea-level rise. As the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter since 2006, China faces intensifying pressure to balance economic growth post-2014 “new normal” with emissions reduction. The 2020 “dual carbon” goals (carbon peaking and neutrality) represent a key strategic response to this challenge. Achieving this necessitates a transition from the dual control of energy consumption to the dual control of carbon emissions and the acceleration of related institutional frameworks. China's position as the second-largest economy fosters coordinated development between inward (IFDI) and outward (OFDI) foreign direct investment. Amidst global climate imperatives, China’s “dual carbon” goals confront significant challenges, including large required emission cuts, heavy transition burdens, constrained timelines and technological limitations. Consequently, the relationship between coordinated two-way FDI development and the dual control of carbon emissions has become critically important. Studying the dual control effect of carbon emissions related to the coordinated development of two-way FDI is of significant importance both theoretically and practically. From a theoretical perspective, this study reveals the impact mechanism of the coordinated development of two-way FDI on carbon emissions, enriching and improving the existing theoretical system of the dual control of carbon emissions. By constructing a dynamic spatial Durbin panel data model, it is possible to quantitatively assess the inhibitory effect of the coordinated development of two-way FDI on both the total amount and intensity of carbon emissions, providing a theoretical basis for formulating scientific carbon emission policies. From a practical perspective, this study can help guide China in optimizing the structure of both IFDI and OFDI, thereby promoting the transformation and upgrading of its industrial structure toward a greener and low-carbon trajectory. Simultaneously, by facilitating the coordinated development of two-way FDI, effective control of carbon emissions can be achieved, assisting China in reaching its carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets and contributing Chinese wisdom and strength to the global effort against climate change. This study is organized into five sections as follows. The first section is the research design, including the study area, variable selection, research methods, and data sources of the study. The second part discusses the temporal and spatial evolution trends of the coordinated development of two-way FDI, encompassing an analysis of the temporal and spatial evolution trends. The third section examines the testing of the dual control effect of carbon emissions, including an analysis of the mechanism of the dual control effect of carbon emissions related to the coordinated development of two-way FDI, regression results and discussions, and robustness testing. The fourth section presents the spatial heterogeneity tests. Based on major national regional strategies, this study divides the research areas into the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, Yangtze River Economic Belt, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Yangtze River Delta Region, and Yellow River Basin. The fifth section presents the main conclusions and their policy implications. To reveal the dual control effect of carbon emissions related to the coordinated development of two-way FDI, this study takes 31 provincial regions in China’s mainland as the research areas. Based on the pollution halo hypothesis, three-dimensional kernel density estimation and spatial trend maps were employed to deduce the temporal evolution trends of China’s coordinated development of two-way FDI, as well as the total amount and intensity of carbon emissions, and to depict their spatial evolution trends. An empirical test of the dual control effect of carbon emissions related to the coordinated development of China’s two-way FDI was conducted based on the dynamic spatial Durbin model. The results indicate that 1) from a temporal perspective, China’s coordinated development of two-way FDI and the total amount of carbon emissions both exhibit an increasing trend, whereas the trend for carbon emission intensity is the opposite. 2) From a spatial perspective, China’s coordinated development of two-way FDI presents a spatial pattern of “western protrusion-central depression-eastern uplift”. The total amount of carbon emissions exhibits a spatial pattern of “eastern protrusion-western depression”, while the spatial pattern of carbon emission intensity is the opposite of that of the total amount of carbon emissions. 3) China’s coordinated development of two-way FDI significantly promotes the suppression of both the total amount and intensity of carbon emissions, with no spatial heterogeneity in the results. Further robustness tests using the sub-period method, different estimation methods, alternative explanatory variables, and alternative core explanatory variables support these conclusions.

Key words: coordinated development of two-way FDI, dual control of carbon emissions, three-dimensional kernel density estimation, spatial trend map, dynamic spatial Durbin model

摘要：

双向FDI协调发展对碳减排存在重要影响，在实现“双碳”目标中扮演着重要角色。为揭示双向FDI协调发展的碳排放双控效应，以31个省、自治区、直辖市（不包括港澳台）为研究区，依据污染光环假说，采用三维核密度估计、空间趋势地图分别对中国双向FDI协调发展，以及碳排放总量和强度的时间演进趋势进行了推演，空间演进趋势进行了刻画；同时，基于动态空间杜宾模型对中国双向FDI协调发展的碳排放双控效应进行了实证检验。结果表明，1）在时间层面上，中国双向FDI协调发展和碳排放总量均呈现出增加趋势，而碳排放强度与之相反。2）在空间层面上，中国双向FDI协调发展呈现“西部凸起-中部凹陷-东部翘起”的空间形态；碳排放总量呈现“东部凸起-西部凹陷”的空间形态，碳排放强度与碳排放总量呈现的空间形态相反。3）中国双向FDI协调发展对抑制碳排放总量和强度具有显著的促进作用，不存在空间分异。进一步采用分考察期法、不同估计法、被解释变量替代法及核心解释变量替代法进行稳健性检验，均支持上述结论。

关键词: 双向FDI协调发展, 碳排放双控, 三维核密度估计, 空间趋势地图, 动态空间杜宾模型