Abstract:

Understanding relationships between supply and demand of ecosystem services (ESs) is critical for sustainable ecosystem management, especially in Songnen Plain, a region with clear confliction between agricultural development and ecological conservation. Combining datasets of land cover, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), meteorological records, and socioeconomic statistics, based on the InVEST model and Geoda software, this study adopted the supply-demand ratio, correlation analysis, and K-means cluster analysis methods to assess the relationships between supply and demand of three ESs including water yield (WY), carbon storage (CS), and food provision (FP). Our results showed that: (1) the Songnen Plain is self-sufficient in terms of supply and demand for the three estimated ESs, with the supply-demand ratio for WY, CS, and FP of 0.027, 0.197, and 0.430, respectively. Major WY deficits were observed in northwest and central of the plain, while CS and FP deficits were mainly found in urban areas. (2) Interactions among ES demands were similar, whereas that among ES supplies and supply-demand ratio varied from case to case. (3) Cluster analysis divided the Songnen Plain into four supply-demand ratio bundles dominated by different land cover types. Areas with Bundle 1 were primarily covered by farmland and possessed the highest food supply and demand ratio. Areas with Bundle 2 were primarily covered by wetland and grassland and had the highest water yield supply and demand ratio. Areas with Bundle 3 were mainly covered by woodland and had the largest carbon storage supply and demand ratio. Areas with Bundle 4 were dominantly observed over cities and towns, and each ecosystem service was in a significant deficit. In terms of the findings in this study, we discussed policy recommendations for ecological protection and human welfare improvement in the Songnen Plain and expected to provide a basis for promoting regional sustainable development.

Key words: ecosystem services, demand and supply relationships, tradeoffs and synergies, cluster analysis, ES management strategies, Songnen Plain

摘要：

准确理解生态系统服务的供需平衡关系对于生态系统的可持续管理至关重要,尤其是面临农业发展和生态保护之间激烈冲突的松嫩平原。该研究整合土地覆被数据、归一化植被指数数据（NDVI）、气象数据和经济社会统计数据,基于InVEST模型、ArcGIS 10.6和Geoda软件,采用生态系统服务供需比、相关性分析和K-means聚类分析方法对松嫩平原2015年产水量、碳固持和食物供给3种生态系统服务进行供需关系研究。结果表明,（1）松嫩平原的3种生态系统服务供给均大于需求,其中产水量、碳固持和食物供给的供需比分别为0.027、0.197和0.430。产水量供不应求区域集中在松嫩平原西北部和中部,而碳固持和食物供给供不应求区域主要出现在城区。（2）生态系统服务需求之间的相互关系是相似的,而供给与供需比各内部之间的相互关系因不同生态系统服务而存在差异。（3）聚类分析将松嫩平原划分为4种以不同土地覆被类型为主的生态系统服务簇,其中生态系统服务簇1以农田为主,有最高的食物供需比;生态系统服务簇2以湿地和草地为主,产水量服务供需比最大;生态系统服务簇3以林地为主,碳固持服务供需比最大;生态系统服务簇4以城镇为主,各生态系统服务供不应求。该研究提出了松嫩平原生态保护和改善人类福祉的政策建议,有望为促进区域可持续发展提供科学依据。

关键词: 生态系统服务, 供需关系, 权衡与协同, 聚类分析, 生态系统管理, 松嫩平原