Abstract:

With the evolution of urban functions and industrial forms, environmental issues caused by changes in national land spatial patterns have occurred frequently. It is increasingly crucial to optimize the “Production-Living-Ecological Space” for achieving carbon neutrality. Investigating the interplay between the transformation of “Production-Living-Ecological Space” and the variations in carbon emissions over time and space is of great significance to solving the context of building resilient cities in China, optimizing national land spatial patterns, and meeting the “dual carbon” objectives. Focusing on Fujian Province, this study examines the temporal and spatial shifts in “Production-Living-Ecological Space” from 2005 to 2020. The spatial dynamics of “Production-Living-Ecological Space” and their transition matrices, as well as alongside multi-period data related to carbon emissions, were selected to ascertain Fujian Province's carbon emission coefficient. The impact of the transformation of “Production-Living-Ecological Space” on carbon emissions in Fujian Province is revealed by analyzing the carbon emission contribution rate of the spaces. The findings demonstrate: 1) The spatial composition of “Production-Living-Ecological Space” in Fujian Province primarily consisted of forest ecological spaces from 2005 to 2020. During this period, there was a noticeable decrease in agricultural production spaces and forest ecological spaces, while other space types expanded to various degrees. 2) The evolution of “Production-Living-Ecological Space” in Fujian Province has transitioned from a phase of rapid expansion to a more measured pace of growth. This period was marked by considerable exchanges among industrial production spaces, forest ecological spaces, and agricultural production spaces. Initially, these transformations of “Production-Living-Ecological Space” were predominantly seen in the southeastern region, then gradually spread to the central and western regions, before refocusing on the southeast in the later stages. 3) Reflecting on the changes in the “Production-Living-Ecological Space”, carbon emissions in Fujian Province from 2005 to 2020 followed an upward trajectory, albeit with a decreasing rate of growth. Over these 15 years, there was a cumulative increase in carbon emissions by 5.84×10¹¹ t, with the most significant rise observed in the last five years reaching 2.41×10¹¹ t, and a reduction in the growth rate by 27.3%. The shift from agricultural production spaces and forest ecological spaces to industrial production spaces has emerged as a key driver in the escalation of carbon emissions, contributing to rates of 28.1% and 18.3%, respectively. Consequently, achieving carbon neutrality and optimizing national land space in Fujian Province should depend on understanding the transformation patterns of the “Production-Living-Ecological Space” and the carbon emission characteristics of different space types. Additionally, proactive implementation of territorial spatial zoning and control measures is imperative.

Key words: “Production-Living-Ecological Space”, carbon neutrality, carbon emission, carbon emission contribution rate, Fujian

摘要：

随着城市功能和产业形态的不断变迁，国土空间格局变化带来的环境问题频发，“三生空间”格局（生产、生活、生态空间）优化对碳中和的实现愈发重要，探究“三生空间”转型变化与碳排放时空变化之间的关系，对解决中国式韧性城市建设、国土空间格局优化和“双碳”目标实现具有重要意义。以福建省为例，基于“三生空间”动态度、“三生空间”动态转移矩阵，在确定2005－2020年福建省“三生空间”时空变化的基础上，选取多期碳排放相关经济社会数据确定福建省碳排放系数，利用“三生空间”碳排放贡献率，揭示福建省“三生空间”转型对碳排放的作用程度。结果表明，1）2005－2020年，福建省“三生空间”空间类型表现为林地生态空间占据主体地位，农业生产空间、林地生态空间减少，其他空间类型都有不同程度的扩展。2）福建省“三生空间”转型由急剧增加向逐步减缓发展，其中以工业生产空间、林地生态空间、农业生产空间之间的相互转换规模较大。“三生空间”转换的空间分布前期集中在东南部，中期向中西部延伸，后期中心重新聚集在东南部。3）基于“三生空间”的变换，福建省2005－2020年间的碳排量呈不断增长趋势，但增长率渐缓，15年间累积碳排放共增加5.84×10¹¹ t，近5年增加量最大，达到2.41×10¹¹ t，增长幅度下降27.3%。农业生产空间、林地生态空间向工业生产空间的转入成为碳排放量增加的主要因素，贡献率达到28.1%、18.3%。因此，福建省国土空间优化、碳中和的实现应依托于“三生空间”转型规律、不同空间类型碳排放效应特征，积极实施国土空间分区调控措施。

关键词: “三生空间”, 碳中和, 碳排放, 碳排放贡献率, 福建