济南市采暖季污染指数构建及应用

doi:10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2021.09.009

生态环境学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (9): 1848-1854.DOI: 10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2021.09.009

济南市采暖季污染指数构建及应用

孙凤娟(), 田勇, 张文娟, 付华轩(), 吕波, 许宏宇, 边萌

山东省济南生态环境监测中心,山东济南 250101

收稿日期:2021-02-25 出版日期:2021-09-18 发布日期:2021-12-08
通讯作者: ^*付华轩（1990年生）,男,从事环境空气质量监测及预测预报方面研究。E-mail: jnhbjfuhuaxuan@jn.shandong.cn
作者简介:孙凤娟（1982年生）,女,工程师,硕士,主要从事空气质量预报及模型研究。E-mail: sfj-1221@163.com
基金资助:
济南市科技局社会民生专项(201807008);泉城产业领军人才支持计划

Development and Application of Pollution Index during Heating Period in Ji'nan

SUN Fengjuan(), TIAN Yong, ZHANG Wenjuan, FU Huaxuan(), LV Bo, XU Hongyu, BIAN Meng

Ji'nan Environmental Monitoring Center of Shandong Province, Ji'nan 250101, China

Received:2021-02-25 Online:2021-09-18 Published:2021-12-08

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

作为东亚冬季气候系统的重要组成部分,西伯利亚高压的存在强烈的影响亚洲东部地区天气系统的变化,阿留申低压的强度和位置异常对北半球的天气、气候异常有重要的影响,它们都是影响中国东部地区空气质量的重要的天气系统,其强度和位置变化,影响中国东部地区大尺度污染物扩散条件,本地水平风速、行星边界层高度、相对湿度等影响局地空气中污染物的生成、累积、传输、扩散、沉降等过程。基于2013—2019年采暖季（11月至次年3月）气象数据及济南市空气质量指数（AQI）数据,通过研究西伯利亚高压、阿留申低压、南部气压距平中心气压值强度的变化,以及本地2 m相对湿度、10 m风速、行星边界层高度等气象因素,结合AQI数据,确定各气象因子阈值范围及权重系数,通过权重求和,建立基于经验预报的济南市采暖季污染指数（PI）,两者相关系数达到0.579,为显著相关,随着污染加重,污染指数相应增大,该指数能够反映空气质量变化趋势。以2020年12月出现的两次重污染过程为例,分析不同污染阶段污染指数变化,评估所建公式对济南市空气质量的预报能力,结果表明：12月7—13日重污染过程中,污染指数能够较好的预测本次污染过程的累积及消散过程,11日由于GFS资料中对相对湿度的预报偏差导致预测与实际偏差较大;25—31日污染过程中,污染指数与AQI变化完全一致,预报效果好。污染指数能够较好的反映污染过程的不同阶段,具有较好的提前预报能力,对空气质量预报尤其是重污染期间预报具有较好的指导意义。

关键词: 西伯利亚高压, 阿留申低压, 污染指数, 阈值, 行星边界层, 距平

Abstract:

As important parts of the winter climate system in East Asia, Siberian high strongly affects the changes of weather system in East Asia, and Aleutian low with intensity and position anomalies has a key impact on the weather and climate anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere. They are both crucial weather systems that affect the air quality in eastern China. Their intensity and position changes affect the diffusion conditions of large-scale pollutants in eastern China, and local horizontal wind speed, planetary boundary layer height and relative humidity influence the formation, accumulation, transport, diffusion and deposition of pollutants in the local air. In this study, based on the meteorological data during heating season (November to March of the next year) and the air quality index (AQI) of Ji'nan from 2013 to 2019, the threshold range and weight coefficient of each meteorological factor were determined by investigating the intensity changes in Siberian high, Aleutian low and central pressure of southern barometric anomaly, local 2-m relative humidity, 10-m wind speed and planetary boundary layer height in combination with AQI. Additionally, through weight summation, the pollution index (PI) during heating season of Ji'nan was established based on empirical prediction. Their correlation coefficient reached 0.579, which was a significant correlation. With pollution aggravation, PI increased accordingly, which could reflect the changing trend of air quality. With two heavy pollution processes in December 2020 as examples, the changes in PI at different pollution stages were analyzed, and the forecasting capability of the established formula for air quality in Ji'nan was evaluated. The results showed that during the heavy pollution from December 7 to 13, PI could well forecast the accumulation and dissipation processes. On the 11th, due to the forecast deviation of relative humidity in GFS data, there was a large deviation between the forecast and actual data. During the pollution from 25th to 31st, the changes in PI and AQI were identical, with good forecast effect. Therefore, PI can well reflect different stages of the pollution process, and has a good ability to forecast in advance, which has good guiding significance for air quality forecast, especially in heavy pollution period.

Key words: Siberian high, Aleutian low, pollution index, threshold value, planetary boundary layer, anomaly

中图分类号:

孙凤娟, 田勇, 张文娟, 付华轩, 吕波, 许宏宇, 边萌. 济南市采暖季污染指数构建及应用[J]. 生态环境学报, 2021, 30(9): 1848-1854.

SUN Fengjuan, TIAN Yong, ZHANG Wenjuan, FU Huaxuan, LV Bo, XU Hongyu, BIAN Meng. Development and Application of Pollution Index during Heating Period in Ji'nan[J]. Ecology and Environment, 2021, 30(9): 1848-1854.

图/表 7

图1 2013—2019年采暖季及采暖季重污染期间东亚大槽（a）、采暖季（b）及采暖季重污染期间（c）地面平均气压场、地面气压场距平及相对湿度距平（d）

Fig. 1 East Asian trough during heating season (a) and heavy pollution in heating season (b) from 2013 to 2019, the average surface pressure field during heating season (b) and during heavy pollution in heating season (c), ground pressure field anomaly and relative humidity anomaly (d)

图2 剔除沙尘及降水后济南市2 m相对湿度（a）、行星边界层高度（b）、风速（c）与AQI关系图

Fig. 2 The relationship between AQI and RH(2 m) (a), PBL (b) and WS (c) in Ji'nan after removing dust and precipitation

表1 各气象因子阈值范围及权重

Table 1 Threshold value and weight for each meteorological factor

	因子 Factor	阈值 Threshold value	权重 Weights
1	RH _{(2 m)}	>80%	15
		70%—80%	10
		60%—70%	5
2	10 m wind speed	<2.5 m∙s^-1	2
3	Planetary boundary layer	<200 m	3
4	Siberian high center pressure	<1009.079 hPa	1
5	Aleutian low center pressure	>997.278 hPa	2
6	Southern abnormal center pressure	<1020.30 hPa	3

表2 AQI与污染指数相关性分析

Table 2 Correlation analysis of AOI and pollution index

		AQI	PI
AQI	Pearson Correlation	1	0.579^**
	Significance (bilateral)		0.000
	N	919	919
PI	Pearson Correlation	0.579**	1
	Significance (bilateral)	0.000
	N	919	919

图3 空气质量等级和污染指数箱线图

Fig. 3 Box plot of air quality level and pollution index

图4 2020年12月10日、28日500 hPa环流形势+1000 hPa位势高度（a、b）及2020年12月7—13日、25—31日风速、2 m相对湿度、边界层高度与AQI曲线图（c、d）

Fig. 4 500 hPa circulation situation and 1000 hPa HGT on December 10 (a) and 28 (b), WS, RH (2 m), PBL and AQI on December 7-13 (c) and 25-31 (d), 2020

图5 2020年12月7—13日（a）及12月25—31日（b）重污染过程污染指数与AQI

Fig. 5 The pollution index and AQI of heavy pollution process from December 7 to 13, 2020 (a) and December 25 to 31, 2020 (b)

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济南市采暖季污染指数构建及应用

Development and Application of Pollution Index during Heating Period in Ji'nan

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