气候变化背景下干旱半干旱区草原生态系统的生态脆弱性评价

doi:10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2025.12.001

生态环境学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (12): 1827-1840.DOI: 10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2025.12.001

• 研究论文【生态学】 • 下一篇

气候变化背景下干旱半干旱区草原生态系统的生态脆弱性评价

卜灵心¹(), 秦梦婷¹, 冯克鹏¹^,²^,³^,⁴^,^*(), 来全⁵

1.宁夏大学土木与水利工程学院，宁夏银川 750021
2.旱区现代农业水资源高效利用教育部工程研究中心，宁夏银川 750021
3.宁夏节水灌溉与水资源调控工程技术研究中心，宁夏银川 750021
4.宁夏大学干旱灌区水文与智慧水利野外科学观测研究站，宁夏银川 750021
5.内蒙古师范大学地理科学学院，内蒙古呼和浩特 010022

收稿日期:2025-03-06 出版日期:2025-12-18 发布日期:2025-12-10
通讯作者: *Email:Fengkp@nxu.edu.cn
作者简介:卜灵心（1998年生），男，博士研究生，主要从事水文遥感研究。E-mail: blx_1998@163.com
基金资助:
国家林业和草原局揭榜挂帅项目(202401-14);国家自然科学基金项目(42461049);内蒙古自然科学基金项目(2022MS04006)

Evaluation of the Ecological Vulnerability of Grassland Ecosystems in Arid and Semi-arid Regions under the Background of Climate Change

BU Lingxin¹(), QIN Mengting¹, FENG Kepeng¹^,²^,³^,⁴^,^*(), LAI Quan⁵

1. Ningxia University College of Civil Engineering and Water Conservancy Engineering, Yinchuan 750021, P. R. China
2. Ministry of Education Engineering Research Center for Efficient Utilization of Water Resources in Modern Agriculture in Arid Regions, Yinchuan 750021, P. R. China
3. Ningxia Engineering Research Center for Water-saving Irrigation and Water Resources Regulation, Yinchuan 750021, P. R. China
4. Ningxia University Field Scientific Observation and Research Station for Hydrology and Smart Water Management in Arid Irrigation Regions, Yinchuan 750021, P. R. China
5. School of Geographical Sciences, Inner Mongolia Normal University, Hohhot 010022, P. R. China

Received:2025-03-06 Online:2025-12-18 Published:2025-12-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 近年来，由于气候变化和极端天气事件的频繁发生，生态过程发生了显著的变化。蒙古高原地处干旱半干旱区，主要植被类型以草原为主，是中国北方重要的生态屏障，对其生态脆弱性进行定量评价具有重要意义。基于总初级生产力（GPP）、气温和降水等多源数据，利用自相关多元线性回归系数，结合暴露度、敏感性和恢复力等3个指标构建了脆弱性模型，对蒙古高原草原生态系统脆弱性进行了评价。结果表明：2000－2023年蒙古高原草原生态系统整体表现出低的生态脆弱性，生态脆弱性指数（VI）在0－0.2之间。脆弱性与暴露度空间分布相似，呈现出东部高西部低，从东部向西部逐渐减弱的空间分布格局。其中2002年草原VI最低，2019年VI最高，随着时间的推移VI呈现出增加的趋势。不同草原类型之间生态脆弱性存在差异，草甸草原脆弱性较高，典型草原次之，荒漠草原最低。降水、经度和土壤湿度等3个要素与生态脆弱性之间存在显著正相关关系（p<0.01），高程与生态脆弱性呈现负相关，气温对其影响较小。生态要素之间的关系显示，降水对土壤湿度呈现正向关系（0.61）而气温与土壤湿度之间呈现负向关系（−0.65）。该研究结果为评估气候变化对草原生态系统的影响，制定不同类型草原的管理措施，实现草原资源的合理利用提供理论基础。

关键词: 蒙古高原, 气候改变, 总初级生产力（GPP）, 生态脆弱性模型, 草原类型

Abstract:

In recent years, ecological processes have undergone significant changes owing to climate change and frequent occurrences of extreme weather events. Located in arid and semi-arid regions, the Mongolian Plateau is predominantly covered by grasslands and serves as a crucial ecological barrier in Northern China. A quantitative assessment of ecological vulnerability is important. Based on multi-source data, including gross primary productivity (GPP), air temperature, and precipitation, we constructed a vulnerability model using autocorrelated multiple linear regression coefficients, incorporating three indicators: exposure, sensitivity, and resilience. Accordingly, the vulnerability of the grassland ecosystem on the Mongolian Plateau was assessed. The results showed that from 2000 to 2023, the grassland ecosystem of the Mongolian Plateau exhibited generally low ecological vulnerability, with a vulnerability index (VI) ranging from 0 to 0.2. The spatial distribution of vulnerability was similar to that of exposure, showing a decreasing trend from east to west. The lowest VI was recorded in 2002 and the highest in 2019, and the VI exhibited an increasing trend over time. Ecological vulnerability varied among different grassland types, with the meadow steppe showing the highest vulnerability, followed by the typical steppe, and the desert steppe being the least vulnerable. Significant positive correlations (p<0.01) were found between ecological vulnerability and precipitation, longitude, and soil moisture, whereas elevation showed a negative correlation, and temperature had a relatively minor effect on ecological vulnerability. The relationships among the ecological factors indicated a positive correlation between precipitation and soil moisture (0.61) and a negative correlation between temperature and soil moisture (−0.65). These findings provide a theoretical basis for assessing the impacts of climate change on grassland ecosystems, developing management strategies for different grassland types, and promoting the rational utilization of grassland resources.

Key words: Mongolian Plateau, climate change, gross primary productivity (GPP), ecological vulnerability model, grassland type

中图分类号:

卜灵心, 秦梦婷, 冯克鹏, 来全. 气候变化背景下干旱半干旱区草原生态系统的生态脆弱性评价[J]. 生态环境学报, 2025, 34(12): 1827-1840.

BU Lingxin, QIN Mengting, FENG Kepeng, LAI Quan. Evaluation of the Ecological Vulnerability of Grassland Ecosystems in Arid and Semi-arid Regions under the Background of Climate Change[J]. Ecology and Environmental Sciences, 2025, 34(12): 1827-1840.

图/表 12

图1 蒙古高原地理位置及高程该图基于国家地理信息公共服务平台下载的审图号为GS（2024）0650号的标准地图制作，底图无修改。下同

Figure 1 Geographical location and elevation of the Mongolian Plateau

图2 蒙古高原气候类型及草原类型空间分布

Figure 2 Spatial distribution of climate types and grassland types on the Mongolian Plateau

图3 2000－2023年蒙古高原年均GPP、气温和降水的空间分布图以及时间变化趋势

Figure 3 Spatial distribution maps and temporal variation trend charts of the annual average GPP, temperature and precipitation on the Mongolian Plateau from 2000 to 2023

图4 不同生态脆弱性指标空间分布

Figure 4 Spatial distribution of different ecological vulnerability indicators

图5 各种草原类型中生态脆弱性指标年际变化

Figure 5 Interannual variations of ecological vulnerability indicators in various grassland types

表1 t检验表

Table 1 t-test Table

草原类型	暴露度指数（EI）	敏感性指数（SI）	适应性指数（RI）	脆弱性指数（VI）
典型草原-草甸草原	0.85*¹⁾	0.50*	0.87*	0.48*
典型草原-荒漠草原	0.97*	0.37*	0.15*	0.52*
荒漠草原-草甸草原	0.77*	0.89*	0.91*	0.78*

图6 不同生态脆弱性指标随经度和纬度的变化情况

Figure 6 The variations of different ecological vulnerability indicators with respect to longitude and latitude

图7 不同生态脆弱性指标在各种草原类型中的分布情况

Figure 7 The distribution of different ecological vulnerability indicators in various types of grasslands

图8 不同草原类型中暴露度指数（EI）、敏感性指数（SI）以及适应性指数（RI）之间的关系

Figure 8 The relationship among exposure index (EI), sensitivity index (SI), and resilience index (RI) in different types of grasslands

图9 趋势分析结果

Figure 9 Trend analysis results

图10 相关性分析结果 *表示p<0.05；**表示p<0.01

Figure 10 Correlation analysis results

图11 结构方程模型分析结果红色和蓝色的线条分别代表正系数和负系数，箭头的粗细则表示标准化路径系数的大小

Figure 11 Analysis results of the structural equation model

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气候变化背景下干旱半干旱区草原生态系统的生态脆弱性评价

Evaluation of the Ecological Vulnerability of Grassland Ecosystems in Arid and Semi-arid Regions under the Background of Climate Change

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