基于多源遥感数据的汾河流域植被碳汇量估算及预测

doi:10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2025.03.002

生态环境学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (3): 345-357.DOI: 10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2025.03.002

基于多源遥感数据的汾河流域植被碳汇量估算及预测

宋双双¹(), 秦世姣², 孙彭成³, 付兴涛¹^,^*()

1.太原理工大学水利科学与工程学院，山西太原 030000
2.山西漳河水务集团有限公司，山西长治 046000
3.黄河水利委员会黄河水利科学研究院，河南郑州 450003

收稿日期:2024-09-10 出版日期:2025-03-18 发布日期:2025-03-24
通讯作者: *付兴涛。E-mail: fuxingtao@tyut.edu.cn
*付兴涛。E-mail: fuxingtao@tyut.edu.cn
作者简介:宋双双（2001年生），女，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为水土保持与土壤侵蚀。E-mail: 2280226646@qq.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(42207401);山西省基础研究计划项目(202203021221050);山西省科技创新人才团队(202204051002027)

Estimation and Prediction of Vegetation Carbon Sinks in Fenhe River Basin Based on Multi-source Remote Sensing Data

SONG Shuangshuang¹(), QIN Shijiao², Sun Pengcheng³, FU Xingtao¹^,^*()

1. College of Water Resources Science and Engineering, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030000, P. R. China
2. Shanxi Zhanghe Water Group Co., Ltd., Changzhi 046000, P. R. China
3. Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research, Yellow River Conservancy Commission, Zhengzhou 450003, P. R. China

Received:2024-09-10 Online:2025-03-18 Published:2025-03-24

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

净生态系统生产力（Net Ecosystem Productivity，NEP）是定量评估陆地生态系统碳汇功能的重要指标。为了探究汾河流域植被碳汇量的时空分布规律并预测未来30年汾河流域植被碳汇量。基于数字高程模型（DEM）数据、归一化植被指数（NDVI）数据、土地利用数据和气象数据，运用改进的CASA模型定量估算了汾河流域1999－2023年的植被碳汇量，用灰色GM(1, 1)模型预测了2024－2053年汾河流域植被碳汇量。结果显示，1）植被年均NEP随时间呈明显上升趋势，年均增长率为8.05%，其中，秋季和夏季多年平均NEP较大，分别为C 45.33 g∙m⁻²∙a⁻¹和44.23 g∙m⁻²∙a⁻¹，而春季和冬季较小，分别为C 21.41 g∙m⁻²∙a⁻¹和19.70 g∙m⁻²∙a⁻¹。2）植被NEP在空间上整体分布特点为“中部低，两翼高”。植被碳汇量发生显著时空迁移，2006年高碳汇区南移至汾河流域南部，较2005年平均增长近C 100 g∙m⁻²∙a⁻¹。2019－2023年高碳汇区同样向南迁移，较2018年增加C 46.05 g∙m⁻²∙a⁻¹。3）未来30年汾河流域植被碳汇量将持续增长，年均增长率为2.68%。预计到2032年将达到C 200 g∙m⁻²∙a⁻¹，2048年有望达到C 300 g∙m⁻²∙a⁻¹。汾河流域目前及未来30年植被碳汇量总体呈上升趋势，研究结果为该区域生态环境保护、碳减排政策制定和可持续发展规划提供科学依据。

关键词: 净生态系统生产力（NEP）, 生态系统碳汇, 植被碳汇量, CASA模型, 灰色GM(1, 1)模型, 汾河流域

Abstract:

Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP) is an important indicator for quantitatively assessing carbon sink functions in terrestrial ecosystems. Spatial and temporal distribution patterns of the vegetation carbon sink in the Fenhe River Basin and prediction of the vegetation carbon sink in the Fenhe River Basin over the next 30 years. Based on Digital Elevation Model (DEM), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Land Use, and meteorological data, the vegetation carbon sink in the Fenhe River Basin from 1999 to 2023 was quantitatively estimated by the improved CASA model using a combination of model simulation and remote sensing techniques. The gray GM(1, 1) model was applied to predict the carbon sink of vegetation in the Fenhe River Basin from 2024 to 2053. The results show: 1) Vegetation mean annual Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP) showed a significant upward trend over time, with an average annual growth rate of 8.05%, with larger fall and summer multiyear mean NEP of C 45.33 g∙m⁻²∙a⁻¹ and 44.23 g∙m⁻²∙a⁻¹, respectively, and smaller spring and winter NEP of C 21.41 g∙m⁻²∙a⁻¹ and 19.70 g∙m⁻²∙a⁻¹, respectively. 2) The overall spatial distribution of vegetation NEP was characterized by “low in the middle and high in the two wings”. In 2006, the high-carbon sink area moved southward to the southern part of the Fenhe River Basin, with an average increase of nearly C 100 g∙m⁻²∙a⁻¹ compared to 2005. And the high carbon sink area similarly migrates southward in 2019-2023, increasing by C 46.05 g∙m⁻²∙a⁻¹ compared to 2018. 3) The vegetation carbon sink in Fenhe River Basin will continue to grow over the next 30 years, with an average annual growth rate of 2.68%. It is expected to reach C 200 g∙m⁻²∙a⁻¹ by 2032 and C 300 g•m⁻²∙a⁻¹ by 2048. The vegetation carbon sink in the Fen River Basin shows an overall increasing trend over the next 30 years, which provides a scientific basis for ecological environmental protection, the formulation of carbon emission reduction policies, and the planning of sustainable development in the region.

Key words: Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP), ecosystem carbon sink, vegetation carbon sink, CASA model, Gray GM(1, 1) model, Fenhe River basin

中图分类号:

Q948
X173

宋双双, 秦世姣, 孙彭成, 付兴涛. 基于多源遥感数据的汾河流域植被碳汇量估算及预测[J]. 生态环境学报, 2025, 34(3): 345-357.

SONG Shuangshuang, QIN Shijiao, Sun Pengcheng, FU Xingtao. Estimation and Prediction of Vegetation Carbon Sinks in Fenhe River Basin Based on Multi-source Remote Sensing Data[J]. Ecology and Environment, 2025, 34(3): 345-357.

图/表 10

图1 汾河流域概况中国地图审图号：GS(2023)2763号，自然资源部监制。底图边界无修改

Figure 1 Overview of Fenhe River basin

图2 NEP估算总体框架

Figure 2 General framework for NEP estimates

图3 1999－2023年汾河流域NPP与MODIS NPP年均值和年最大值的对比分析

Figure 3 Comparative analysis of annual mean and annual maximum of NPP and MODIS NPP in Fenhe River Basin, 1999?2023

图4 CASA模型估算的植被年均和年最大NPP与MODIS NPP值的拟合

Figure 4 Fitting of annual mean and annual maximum NPP of vegetation estimated by CASA model to MODIS NPP values

表1 1999－2023年汾河流域植被年均碳汇量的相对残差

Table 1 Relative residuals of annual average carbon sinks of vegetation in Fenhe River basin, 1999-2023

年份	估算值X⁽⁰⁾(k) (以C计)/ (g·m⁻²·a⁻¹⁾	预测值 $X^(1) (t)$ (以C计)/ (g·m⁻²·a⁻¹⁾	残差q(k) (以C计)/ (g·m⁻²·a⁻¹⁾	相对残差e(k)/ %
1999	62.27	62.27	0.00	0.00
2000	56.90	85.91	29.01	50.98
2001	73.81	88.21	14.40	19.51
2002	53.72	90.58	36.86	68.62
2003	72.00	93.00	21.01	29.18
2004	97.21	95.49	1.72	1.77
2005	88.37	98.05	9.68	10.96
2006	147.85	100.67	47.18	31.91
2007	94.41	103.37	8.96	9.49
2008	133.40	106.14	27.26	20.43
2009	104.04	108.98	4.94	4.75
2010	137.80	111.90	25.90	18.80
2011	113.25	114.90	1.65	1.46
2012	165.93	117.97	47.96	28.90
2013	135.67	121.13	14.54	10.72
2014	136.96	124.38	12.58	9.18
2015	125.01	127.71	2.70	2.16
2016	96.62	131.13	34.51	35.72
2017	167.48	134.64	32.84	19.61
2018	99.72	138.25	38.53	38.64
2019	150.25	141.95	8.30	5.52
2020	141.88	145.75	3.87	2.73
2021	148.00	149.65	1.65	1.12
2022	149.26	153.66	4.40	2.95
2023	139.44	157.78	18.34	13.15
平均值	115.65	116.14	17.95	5.78

表1 1999－2023年汾河流域植被年均碳汇量的相对残差

Table 1 Relative residuals of annual average carbon sinks of vegetation in Fenhe River basin, 1999-2023

年份	估算值X⁽⁰⁾(k) (以C计)/ (g·m⁻²·a⁻¹⁾	预测值 $X^(1) (t)$ (以C计)/ (g·m⁻²·a⁻¹⁾	残差q(k) (以C计)/ (g·m⁻²·a⁻¹⁾	相对残差e(k)/ %
1999	62.27	62.27	0.00	0.00
2000	56.90	85.91	29.01	50.98
2001	73.81	88.21	14.40	19.51
2002	53.72	90.58	36.86	68.62
2003	72.00	93.00	21.01	29.18
2004	97.21	95.49	1.72	1.77
2005	88.37	98.05	9.68	10.96
2006	147.85	100.67	47.18	31.91
2007	94.41	103.37	8.96	9.49
2008	133.40	106.14	27.26	20.43
2009	104.04	108.98	4.94	4.75
2010	137.80	111.90	25.90	18.80
2011	113.25	114.90	1.65	1.46
2012	165.93	117.97	47.96	28.90
2013	135.67	121.13	14.54	10.72
2014	136.96	124.38	12.58	9.18
2015	125.01	127.71	2.70	2.16
2016	96.62	131.13	34.51	35.72
2017	167.48	134.64	32.84	19.61
2018	99.72	138.25	38.53	38.64
2019	150.25	141.95	8.30	5.52
2020	141.88	145.75	3.87	2.73
2021	148.00	149.65	1.65	1.12
2022	149.26	153.66	4.40	2.95
2023	139.44	157.78	18.34	13.15
平均值	115.65	116.14	17.95	5.78

图5 1999－2023年汾河流域植被年均NEP年际变化及各部分占比

Figure 5 Interannual variation in mean annual NEP of vegetation in Fenhe River basin and the share of each component, 1999-2023

图6 1999－2023年汾河流域不同月份及季节NEP变化

Figure 6 Changes in NEP in different months and seasons in Fenhe River basin, 1999-2023

图7 1999－2023年汾河流域植被NEP的空间分布

Figure 7 Spatial distribution of vegetation NEP in Fenhe River basin, 1999-2023

图8 1999－2023年汾河流域植被NEP空间多年累积图

Figure 8 Spatial multi-year cumulative map of vegetation NEP in Fenhe River Basin, 1999-2023

表2 汾河流域2024－2053年植被年均碳汇量预测值

Table 2 Projected annual average carbon sink of vegetation in Fenhe River Basin, 2024-2053

年份	预测值(以C计)/(g·m⁻²·a⁻¹)	年份	预测值(以C计)/(g·m⁻²·a⁻¹)
2024	162.00	2039	240.81
2025	166.34	2040	247.26
2026	170.79	2041	253.88
2027	175.37	2042	260.68
2028	180.06	2043	267.67
2029	184.89	2044	274.83
2030	189.84	2045	282.19
2031	194.92	2046	289.75
2032	200.14	2047	297.51
2033	205.50	2048	305.48
2034	211.01	2049	313.66
2035	216.66	2050	322.06
2036	222.46	2051	330.68
2037	228.42	2052	339.54
2038	234.53	2053	348.63

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基于多源遥感数据的汾河流域植被碳汇量估算及预测

Estimation and Prediction of Vegetation Carbon Sinks in Fenhe River Basin Based on Multi-source Remote Sensing Data

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