引江济淮工程驱动下江淮段植被动态响应分析

doi:10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2026.05.009

生态环境学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (5): 760-769.DOI: 10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2026.05.009

引江济淮工程驱动下江淮段植被动态响应分析

王亚琼¹(), 罗劲松¹, 高曼莉¹, 樊丙玉¹, 王培晓²^,³^,^*()

¹ 安徽林业职业技术学院资源与环境系，安徽合肥 230000
² 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所/地理信息科学与技术全国重点实验室，北京 100101
³ 中国科学院大学资源与环境学院，北京 100049

收稿日期:2025-07-01 修回日期:2025-12-16 接受日期:2026-03-10 出版日期:2026-05-18 发布日期:2026-05-08
通讯作者: *E-mail: wpx@lreis.ac.cn
作者简介:王亚琼（1992年生），女，讲师，硕士，主要从事空间数据挖掘与地理知识工程。E-mail: wyq920506@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(42401524);安徽省高校自然科学研究项目(2023AH052985);安徽省质量工程项目(2024jyxm1198)

Vegetation Dynamics in Response to the Yangtze-to-Huaihe Water Diversion Project: An Analysis of the Jianghuai Section

WANG Yaqiong¹(), LUO Jinsong¹, GAO Manli¹, FAN Bingyu¹, WANG Peixiao²^,³^,^*()

¹ Anhui Vocational & Technical College of Forestry, Hefei 230000, P. R. China
² State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System/Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, P. R. China
³ College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, P. R. China

Received:2025-07-01 Revised:2025-12-16 Accepted:2026-03-10 Online:2026-05-18 Published:2026-05-08

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为评估和预测引江济淮工程驱动下的植被动态变化，基于2015－2024年Landsat 数据，结合随机森林分类、Sen-MK趋势检验和Hurst指数，分析工程建设前后植被覆盖、生长状况（VGP）的时空变化及未来变化趋势。结果表明：工程复用既有河道比例超30%，耕地占用24.72 km²，新增水体37.81 km²、配套设施12.87 km²；36.42%区域发生植被覆盖类型转换，变化区域中51.94%植被长势改善，VGP平均增幅1.616，48.06%退化，平均降幅1.9504；稳定自然植被中，250个影响单元VGP上升（均值+0.11），137个单元的耕地植被改善（均值+0.81），132个影响单元耕地长势增幅显著高于对照区（ΔVGP：0.5982）；Hurst分析表明未来江济淮工程植被长势总体保持正向趋势，6.10%区域持续改善，沿巢湖西北沿岸、天河入江口和派河（合肥至寿县段）两岸分布，剔除城市扩张后植被退化趋势比例5.49%，三河镇临巢湖局部趋势不明确应加以关注。引江济淮工程建设短期内造成了局部植被退化，水文条件改善和生态修复效应带来了长期的植被长势改善趋势，整体上实现了对区域植被质量提升。

关键词: 引江济淮工程, 土地覆盖变化, 植被动态, 趋势检验, Hurst指数

Abstract:

To evaluate and predict vegetation dynamics driven by the Yangtze-to-Huaihe Water Diversion Project, this study used Landsat data from 2015 to 2024. The analysis combines random forest classification, the Sen-MK trend test, and the Hurst index. The focus is on the spatial and temporal changes in vegetation cover and vegetation growth performance (VGP) before and after project construction, as well as on future trends. The results show that the project reused more than 30% of existing river channels, while occupying 24.72 km² of cropland. The project also created 37.81 km² of new water bodies and 12.87 km² of supporting facilities. Vegetation cover types changed in 36.42% of the study area. Within these changed areas, vegetation conditions improved in 51.94% of the land, where the mean VGP increase was 1.616. However, vegetation degraded in 48.06% of the area, with a mean VGP decrease of 1.9504. In areas with stable natural vegetation, 250 impact units showed an increase in VGP, with a mean change of +0.11. For cropland, 137 impact units experienced improved vegetation conditions, with a mean increase of +0.81. Additionally, 132 cropland impact units showed a significantly higher VGP increase compared to the control areas, with a difference (ΔVGP) of 0.5982. The Hurst analysis indicates that vegetation growth under the Yangtze-to-Huaihe Water Diversion Project is likely to maintain an overall positive trend. About 6.10% of the area exhibited a pattern of continuous improvement. These areas are mainly located along the northwest shore of Chaohu Lake, near the Tianhe River inlet to the Yangtze River, and along both sides of the Paihe River from Hefei to Shouxian. After accounting for urban expansion, areas with a future degradation trend make up 5.49%. The future trend in some parts of Sanhe Town near Chaohu Lake is unclear and requires further attention. In the short term, the construction of the Yangtze-to-Huaihe Water Diversion Project caused some local vegetation degradation. However, the project also led to long-term vegetation recovery, supported by improved hydrological conditions and ecological restoration efforts. Overall, the project has resulted in a net improvement in the quality of regional vegetation.

Key words: Yangtze-to-Huaihe Water Diversion Project, land cover change, vegetation dynamics, trend test, Hurst index

中图分类号:

Q948
X173

王亚琼, 罗劲松, 高曼莉, 樊丙玉, 王培晓. 引江济淮工程驱动下江淮段植被动态响应分析[J]. 生态环境学报, 2026, 35(5): 760-769.

WANG Yaqiong, LUO Jinsong, GAO Manli, FAN Bingyu, WANG Peixiao. Vegetation Dynamics in Response to the Yangtze-to-Huaihe Water Diversion Project: An Analysis of the Jianghuai Section[J]. Ecology and Environmental Sciences, 2026, 35(5): 760-769.

图/表 6

图1 研究区概况

Figure 1 Survey of the study area

表1 植被长势未来变化趋势分类表

Table 1 A classification scheme for projected vegetation trends

β	\|Z\|	H	趋势类型	描述
>0	\|Z\|>1.96	H<0.5	反持续改善	过去呈现的植被改善趋势，在未来可能发生逆转，表现为退化趋势
>0	\|Z\|>1.96	H>0.5	持续改善	过去呈现的植被改善趋势，在未来大概率会延续
－	－	H=0.5	不确定	未来变化趋势不确定
<0	\|Z\|>1.96	H<0.5	反持续退化	过去呈现的植被退化趋势，在未来可能发生逆转，表现为改善趋势
<0	\|Z\|>1.96	H>0.5	持续退化	过去呈现的植被退化趋势，在未来大概率会延续
>0	\|Z\|£1.96	－	基本稳定	未来变化趋势基本稳定

图2 引江济淮影响区植被生长总量和变化类型空间分布

Figure 2 Spatial patterns of total vegetation growth and its variation types in the area affected by the Yangtze-to-Huaihe Water Diversion Project

图3 引江济淮工程影响区植被变化类型统计及其对植被生长总量的影响分析

Figure 3 Statistics of vegetation change types and an analysis of their impact on total vegetation growth in the impact zone of the Impact Zone of the Yangtze-to-Huaihe Water Diversion Project

图4 引江济淮影响区内植被长势变化分布热图

Figure 4 Heatmap showing the spatial distribution of changes in vegetation vigor within the impact zone of the Yangtze-to-Huaihe Water Diversion Project

图5 引江济淮工程影响区植被未来长势变化趋势空间分布图

Figure 5 Spatial distribution of future vegetation growth trends in the impact zone of the Yangtze-to-Huaihe Water Diversion Project

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引江济淮工程驱动下江淮段植被动态响应分析

Vegetation Dynamics in Response to the Yangtze-to-Huaihe Water Diversion Project: An Analysis of the Jianghuai Section

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